Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/25/17

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Pitchers

Zack Greinke FD 9600 DK 12600
Opponent - SF (Blach) Park - @ARI
FD - 37.26 DK - 24.46

Greinke tops the raw points projections tonight and while he has reached his second highest price of the season on DraftKings and is GPP only, his price on FanDuel puts him right near the top of the PTS/$ rankings as well. At $9.6K it is his second lowest price in his last eight starts and while you would think he would be better on the road away from Chase Field, that just isn't the case. Greinke has been very impressive at home with a 2.34 ERA(4.28 on the road) and 10.9 K/9 rate. Despite striking out below league average, the Giants present a plus matchup as they rank dead last in the league in both wOBA and wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching. He is safe in all formats on FanDuel.

Jose Quintana FD 8900 DK 11600
Opponent - PHI (Eickhoff) Park - @PHI
FD - 33.68 DK - 22.21

I don't completely trust Verlander at that price and deGrom has a tougher matchup vs. the Nats and this has me leaning Quintana as my second favorite pitcher in the top tier. The Cubs have been red-hot winning five straight and six of their last seven(currently up 1-0 on Thursday night) and sit as early -190 favorites vs. the Phillies on Friday night. Since making the jump from the south side to the north side, Quintana has pitched well with a 3.73 ERA and 3.60 xFIP over seven starts and has limited opponents to three earned runs or less in six of them. For fantasy, he has also elevated his upside with a 10.1 K/9 rate in those seven starts. Safe in all formats on both sites tonight.

Michael Wacha FD 7400 DK 7400
Opponent - TB (Odorizzi) Park - @STL
FD - 30.86 DK - 20.41

Safe is not a word we are going to use wit Wacha, especially considering he has given up nine earned runs over his last two starts. In the mid $7K range, however, he makes a nice SP2 option on DraftKings and gets a boost to his upside as the Rays have been right at the bottom of the league in hitting over the last 14 days and rank mid pack vs. righties but strike out 25% of the time. Tampa Bay is also a worse team on the road and Wacha gets to pitch in a top 3 hitters park.

 

Catcher

Gary Sanchez FD 4000 DK 5200
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @NYY
FD - 12.82 DK - 9.85

If you aren't paying right up for pitching, Gary Sanchez is the top priced and top projected catcher of the night. He has also been on a tear with multiple hits in three straight games including four home runs and taking it further, he now has 10 home runs in August with 21 RBI and 16 runs scored. He has been better vs. right-handed pitching this season but still has seven homers vs. lefties and Miranda has given up 20 earned runs(7 HR) over his last five starts so I am not really concerned about the splits.

Chris Iannetta FD 2700 DK 3500
Opponent - SF (Blach) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.36 DK - 7.71

On the value end of things, I favor Chris Iannetta in this matchup vs. Ty Blach. His numbers haven't been great overall this year(.230/.321/.490) but are very strong vs. left-handed pitching with a .409 wOBA and 147 wRC+. He has spent time hitting out of the two-hole for the D-Backs and would get a sizeable boost to his projection if placed back there tonight. He is safe in all formats and makes a nice salary relief option with upside if you are paying up for a pitcher.

 

 

First Base

Paul Goldschmidt FD 4200 DK 5600
Opponent - SF (Blach) Park - @ARI
FD - 16.11 DK - 12.68

The top projected position player tonight is Paul Goldschmidt. In my opinion, he is the current front runner for National League MVP with his elite .314/.425/.586 slash line with 152 wRC+. On top of that, he has stolen 16 bases and has put the D-Backs on his back as they currently lead the NL Wildcard race. After some early season struggles vs. southpaws, he has bounced back in a big way bringing his average up to .327 with a .405 wOBA and 144 wRC+ vs. lefties. He gets one of the best matchups of the night facing Ty Blach who has fallen off big time giving up 12 earned runs over his last two starts including three home runs and has a 5.01 ERA on the road this season. if you are paying up for one hitter today make it Goldy!

Adrian Gonzalez FD 2500 DK 3100
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.09 DK - 6.86

If you are looking for value at the position, consider Adrian Gonzalez who has yet to see his salary adjust after spending two months on the disabled list. The 35-year-old veteran isn't going to give us the upside we were accustomed to years ago but for the price, it makes sense as he has hits six of seven games since his return and has even spent some time in the cleanup spot. I don't think you have to go this low on FanDuel with so many great options and more soft pricing for pitchers but on DraftKings he is a nice salary relief option if you plan to pay up for two pitchers.

Also Consider: Ryon Healy(OAK)

 

 

Second Base

Brian Dozier FD 4100 DK 5100
Opponent - TOR (Happ) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.58 DK - 9.13

It's funny how one day can change a perspective on a player. Yesterday, before he was pushed back, I wrote up Happ who I loved in the matchup with the Rays. Today I will target my two favorite Twins hitters when they face a lefty. It starts with Brian Dozier who has been one of the hottest hitters at the position over the last 14 days with a .434 wOBA and 174 wRC+ with four home runs and 14 runs scored. On top of that, he crushes lefties to the tune of a .424 wOBA and 167 wRC+ and while Happ has been better as of last, he is still prone to giving up the long ball at times. For those of you who are into BvP, Dozier has two long balls in 10 at-bats vs. Happ.

Eduardo Nunez FD 3400 DK 4600
Opponent - BAL (Hellickson) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.34 DK - 10.58

If you need a bit more savings to fit in a pitcher or elite bat at another position consider Eduardo Nunez who has recently taken over as the Red Sox leadoff hitter. In the 14 games since the move, he has impressed with his in 11 of 14 games including six multi-hit efforts. The price is definitely climbing but it still has room to grow and may after tonight as he gets an elite matchup. Jeremy Hellickson started out on a positive note shutting out the Royals in his first start with the O's but has since given up 16 earned runs in three starts including five home runs against last start vs. the Angels. All things considered, he is safe in all formats.

Also Consider: Josh Harrison(PIT)

 

 

 

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Shortstop

Francisco Lindor FD 3700 DK 4500
Opponent - KC (Vargas) Park - @CLE
FD - 12.29 DK - 9.87

Everything in this matchup screams top play at the position tonight. It starts with the opposing pitcher, Jason Vargas, who it feels we as a DFSR team spent the entire first half advocating for his regression. Well, our prophecy has come true as he has given up 25 earned runs in seven starts in the second half(6.62 ERA) including seven home runs(20.6% HR/FB rate). This is great news for Lindor as he has been much better vs. left-handed pitching with a .305 average, .365 wOBA, and 127 wRC+. I will be using Lindor in all formats.

Jordy Mercer FD 2100 DK 3100
Opponent - CIN (Stephenson) Park - @CIN
FD - 7.66 DK - 6.02

The shortstop position is always one of the top two spots I will punt if using two high-end pitchers on DraftKings. Jordy Mercer is at the top of that list tonight as the system loves him from a PTS/$ standpoint. He has a limited ceiling with a .250 average but has shown some pop this season with 11 home runs and has hits in five of his last seven games. It's much more about getting to the upside of the elite pitchers than Mercer's overall talent.

Also Consider: Eduardo Escobar(MIN)

 

 

Third Base

Josh Donaldson FD 3900 DK 4800
Opponent - MIN (Colon) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.82 DK - 10.39

After dealing with a nagging injury for much of the first half, Donaldson has been a beast in August and looks to finish the season strong and possibly carry the Jays to the playoffs again. A Jays fan can sure dream, right? All kidding aside, JD20 has an elite .329/.461/.843 slash lien in August with 11 home runs, 24 RBI, and 17 runs scored. He sits at the top of the salary on FanDuel which is fair but he comes at a discount on DraftKings as the 7th in salary and under $5K tonight. He also gets an elite matchup vs. Bartolo Colon who has given up six home runs in his last two starts and has an evil 6.66 ERA on the season.

Jedd Gyorko FD 3300 DK 3900
Opponent - TB (Odorizzi) Park - @STL
FD - 10.8 DK - 8.3

For value, I turn to Jedd Gyorko once again. He is not a flashy or popular pick but provides some salary relief and not only has hits in four straight but has also driven in a run in four straight games. The splits are a pick and choose tonight as Gyorko has been better vs. lefties but looking closer at Odorizzi's splits we see he has struggled vs. right-handed batters.  Odorizzi has also had an issue with the long ball this season with a 16.8% HR/FB rate and has given up multiple long balls in five of his last nine starts.

Also Consider: Rafael Devers(BOS)

 

 

Outfield

Mookie Betts FD 3900 DK 4900
Opponent - BAL (Hellickson) Park - @BOS
FD - 14.01 DK - 11.3
Andrew Benintendi FD 4000 DK 5000
Opponent - BAL (Hellickson) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.87 DK - 10.27

The Red Sox are routinely one of my favorite teams to target in the outfield and tonight is stands out as they currently have the highest implied runs(5.6) on the entire slate. It has everything to do with the matchup vs. Jeremy Hellickson who is nearly hit rock bottom with his new team giving up five home runs in his last start and 16 earned runs over his last three starts. For safety, I lean Benintendi at the moment as he has been red hot in August with a .361/.427/.667 slash line with six home runs and 17 RBI. Betts has struggled in August(.219/.314/.315) but I don't think I would be going out on a limb to say he has the most talent of the two players. For GPP's, I will pair them with a combination of Devers, Nunez, Hanley and even Bogaerts.

Ben Zobrist FD 3200 DK 3700
Opponent - PHI (Eickhoff) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.08 DK - 8.53

The veteran has struggled overall this season but has offered a nice PTS/$ value ranking lately with a salary in the sub $3K range. Zobrist has also been serviceable as the team heats up down the stretch and has hits in seven of his last nine games with three doubles and a triple. With the recent uptick in his production, manager Joe Maddon has him back at the top of the order which gives him even more value tonight.
Austin Jackson FD 3000 DK 3700
Opponent - KC (Vargas) Park - @CLE
FD - 8.53 DK - 6.84

Another mid range value pick on both sites who has bounced around the lineup but has spent considerable time near the top of the order lately. Jackson has impressed in his first year with the Indians with a .322/.391/.506 slash line in 59 games and gets a nice matchup vs. Jason Vargas who has fallen off after a strong first half. In his last for starts, he has given up 16 earned runs and bad news for him, Jackson has been better vs. southpaws with a .426 wOBA and 169 wRC+ on the season.
Also Consider: George Springer(HOU), Shin-Soo Choo(TEX)

 

 

 

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