Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

08/26/2017
Jerry Vanderwoude

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/26/17

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Pitcher

Early
Gio GonzalezGio Gonzalez FD 9500 DK 12500
Opponent - NYM (Gsellman) Park - @WSH
FD - 34.31 DK - 22.49
We kick things off with Gio Gonzalez, though somewhat reluctantly. Not so much on FanDuel, I'm fine with Gio carrying a sub 10K price tag over there, but the season high 12.5 on DraftKings is a hard pill to swallow. Given the slate though, it's all but unavoidable. We need two pitchers, and Gio is in the best position facing the Mets, who have the lowest implied run total on the early slate and who have struck out 24.6% of the time against lefties this season. While not an ideal pitching environment, Nationals Park is the second best option on the slate behind the Rogers Centre and we'll be heading there next but for SP1 on the early, I think we have to just ride with Gonzalez and hold on tight.

Marco EstradaMarco Estrada FD 7700 DK 6900
Opponent - MIN (Gee) Park - @TOR
FD - 29.76 DK - 19.78
Even with the price tag Gonzalez comes with, I think we can lock him in without sacrificing too much in the way of bats by balancing out our pitching with Marco Estrada. Estrada is an excellent value option across the industry, with solid K upside, his 9.1 K/9 is higher than even Gio's, and as I mentioned earlier, he is on the best hill for pitching in a slate overrun with hitters parks. Estrada is an excellent GPP pivot on FanDuel, and also leaves $3,825 per batter on DraftKings when paired with Gonzalez, which isn't a ton but definitely gives us some wiggle room.

Main
Mike ClevingerMike Clevinger FD 8200 DK 6700
Opponent - KC (Hammel) Park - @CLE
FD - 27.76 DK - 18.42
On the main slate, we're going to look at a couple of pitchers that are ranked quite similarly in the system. Madison Bumgarner edges out Mike Clevinger in projected points, but I'm leading off with Clevinger because he comes at a substantial discount which gives him the points per dollar edge. Clevinger also has a higher K/9 than MadBum and is a bigger favorite in his matchup with the Royals at Progressive Field, a team with a .316 wOBA that strikes out 20.1% of the time vs right handers. On FanDuel, It's ultimately going to come down to my bats, but I may very well split my exposure between the two in cash.

Madison BumgarnerMadison Bumgarner FD 9900 DK 12200
Opponent - ARI (Walker) Park - @ARI
FD - 33.33 DK - 22.19
On DraftKings however, I will be pairing the two up. Clevinger is an incredible SP2 option and pairs nicely with MadBum whose 12K price tag doesn't fill me with the same trepidation I get from Gio on the early slate. MadBum dominated the Phillies his last time out, and outside of a shaky start against Miami, his last five starts have all read about the same with 6-7 innings pitched, seven K's, and two runs at the most surrendered. Today he leaves the comfy confines of AT&T Park for hitter friendly Chase Field, to face the Diamondbacks, who are about average with a .324 wOBA and 91 wRC+ for the season, and dips down to .299 and 76 against southpaws while also striking out 25.5% of the time against lefties. As long as he doesn't make any mistakes that end up leaving the park, I'm confident Bum can hold the DBacks in check and easily pay value.

Catcher

Early
Miguel MonteroMiguel Montero FD 2300 DK 3100
Opponent - MIN (Gee) Park - @TOR
FD - 8.55 DK - 6.61
There are several ways to go on the early slate with your bats, with four teams projected for over five runs, but the system is zeroing in on the Blue Jays and with good reason. If you're going with Gonzalez at pitcher, then Toronto presents solid PPD upside, while not breaking the bank at most positions. We begin behind the plate with Miguel Montero who has been filling in nicely for the injured Russell Martin. Montero and the Blue Jays will face Dillon Gee today who has returned to a starting role after spending most of the past two seasons coming out of the pen. Martin is a bargain priced backstop across the industry hitting in the heart of the Toronto order who should see plenty of RBI opportunities this afternoon.

Main
James McCannJames McCann FD 2700 DK 3200
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @CHW
FD - 9.29 DK - 7.12
Despite the fact that we're not breaking the bank on pitching tonight, there are other places I feel more comfortable dropping a substantial amount of salary so I'm looking down the list of backstops and keep coming back to James McCann. McCann and the Tigers are facing the White Sox today who will send Carlos Rodon out to the hill, who hasn't been terrible through ten starts this season, but hasn't been lights out either. McCann is currently 0-3 in Friday night's series opener after taking a pitch to the head from Dellin Betances in Thursday night's rumble in the Bronx, so keep an eye out in case Detroit feels he needs some rest or worst case, further evaluation.

First Base

Early
Justin SmoakJustin Smoak FD 3200 DK 4500
Opponent - MIN (Gee) Park - @TOR
FD - 12.36 DK - 9.22
First base on the early slate is a tough one, honestly, I would've put Joey Votto here, and if you can afford him then he is the way to go against Gerrit Cole, but that's a pretty big if. That said, I'm going to stick with the Toronto love on the early slate and talk up Justin Smoak. At a marked discount, you get a player with similar projections to Votto in our early run of the system. Smoak has quietly been a bright light in a dark season for Blue Jays fans, popping his 35th home run of the season last night. He's carrying a .386 wOBA and a 142 wRC+ with a .278 ISO. Smoak is fully capable of going out there and giving an 0 for 4 performance, but the implied upside that he presents at a discount compared to Joey V. is worth taking a chance on.

Main
Edwin EncarnacionEdwin Encarnacion FD 4000 DK 4700
Opponent - KC (Hammel) Park - @CLE
FD - 13.26 DK - 9.9
The Indians are at home this weekend playing host to the Royals. Kansas City will run Jason Hammel to the hill to face the Tribe. He will have his hands full with the likes of Edwin Encarnacion. EE has been a boom or bust type of play since taking his talents to Cleveland. Since the All Star break he's hitting just .219 but when he does connect he sets off fireworks hitting 11 of his 29 home runs in that stretch. Despite his recent struggles his numbers have held steady and he carries a .368 wOBA and 129 wRC+ against right handed pitching, while 22 of his long balls have come from righties. Hammel meanwhile has struggled this season with only 6 wins in 25 starts, and his 4.99 xFIP is the seventh worst in the game.

Logan MorrisonLogan Morrison FD 2600 DK 3600
Opponent - STL (Leake) Park - @STL
FD - 9.61 DK - 7.31
Some interleague action as the Rays are in St. Louis for a weekend with the Cardinals. If you find yourself having a hard time paying up for Encarnacion, you can consider Logan Morrison, LoMo has had a quiet month of August, hitting just three of his 29 home runs this month, and carrying a .276 wOBA through the month. Despite that he's still sitting at .353 on the season as a whole. He opened the weekend up going 2 for 5 with a double a walk and a run scored on Friday night, and will look to keep that fire lit tonight against Mike Leake who has a 4.16 ERA, 3.94 xFIP and .313 BABIP. Neither of these guys fills me with confidence, but both of them have the potential to add some pop to your lineup.

Second Base

Early
Eduardo NunezEduardo Nunez FD 3500 DK 4800
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.95 DK - 10.24
I've been singing some solid praise to the Blue Jays already, and I'm not done yet, but since we can't lock in the whole Toronto lineup on the early slate, let's spread some of our love to bean town. The Red Sox are another 5+ run offense in the early projections from Vegas as they play host to the Orioles and Kevin Gausman. Gausman isn't as terrible as he made us think he was going to be early in the season, but he isn't what we would classify as good either. Certainly not a pitcher we want to avoid. We start off with Eduardo Nunez who has really stepped his game up since moving to the leadoff spot and as long as he remains there we want to continue to target him until the price catches up to the production, which is close, but there's still room to work with. After writing up Nunez, I saw his collision with Machado, he's day to day so keep an eye on this one, if he isn't cleared to play then consider Daniel Murphy against the Mets Robert Gsellman

Main
Jose RamirezJose Ramirez FD 2900 DK 4400
Opponent - KC (Hammel) Park - @CLE
FD - 12.1 DK - 9.89
This is about as clear a no brainer as you could hope to find. Cleveland has the highest implied run total on the night against Jason Hammel at 5.3, Jose Ramirez hits third in that line up, yet is priced in the lower tier on FanDuel. Even on DraftKings, Ramirez is in play, against an arm like Hammel's but on FanDuel, he's practically free and while I'm the type of person quick to point out nothing is a sure thing, he's a sure thing. I don't see a scenario where I won't have complete exposure to Ramirez tonight. He's in play in all formats.

Shortstop

Early
Ryan GoinsRyan Goins FD 2500 DK 3100
Opponent - MIN (Gee) Park - @TOR
FD - 8.27 DK - 6.55
We definitely want to try and punt our way out of shortstop with the salary we're dropping on our early SP spot so back to Toronto we go. Ryan Goins has been very inconsistent through the duration of the 2017 campaign, but in the past week or so he seems to have turned the heat back on. Hitting safely in four straight games while racking up some RBI's and runs scored in the process, Goins is a reasonably priced piece to a Toronto stack, or as a standalone way to punt out of a rather undesirable position.

Main
Trevor StoryTrevor Story FD 2500 DK 3600
Opponent - ATL (Newcomb) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.24 DK - 7.96
Price meets opportunity down in Atlanta tonight as the Rockies travel into SunTrust park. Normally we don't look to the Rockies much outside of Coors field as they're clearly a different team on the road, but Trevor Story against a southpaw for near minimum pricing is something we can't just overlook. Story is hitting southpaws to the tune of a .429 wOBA with a .426 BABIP And .372 ISO. Today he'll bring those numbers to the plate against Sean Newcomb making his 14th career start. Story is the top PPD play at the position and with good reason.

Corey SeagerCorey Seager FD 3700 DK 4600
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @LAD
FD - 12.25 DK - 9.43
Though Story is the top PPD play, the system has some love for Corey Seager as well, and while I have a hard time seeing a scenario where I'll pivot off Story in cash games, I like Seager as a tournament play that could fly under the radar against Zach Davies of the Brewers. Seager's .311 average leads all qualified shortstops this season and he ranks second with a .382 wOBA. Davies has been unimpressive through 26 starts this season with a 4.62 xFIP 4.09 ERA and .302 BABIP. Seager has reached base safely in 18 straight games.

Third Base

Early
Rafael DeversRafael Devers FD 3100 DK 4200
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.23 DK - 8.77
As I said earlier in the Nunez writeup, Kevin Gausman isn't terrible, but he isn't good and the numbers support that. On the early slate he is definitely a pitcher we want to target in Fenway against the Red Sox lineup. Through 27 starts, he has a 5.25 ERA and 4.54 xFIP. he's walking nearly four batters per nine, and his .351 BABIP is the worst by far of the early slate. If Nunez isn't available, we will look to Rafael Devers to lead our Boston exposure. Since coming up on July 25th, Devers has homered eight times in 25 games, with eight multi-hit showings. He has provided some form of fantasy production in all but three games and is a bargain hitting in the heart of the order in an offense that can easily light the scoreboard.

Josh DonaldsonJosh Donaldson FD 3800 DK 5100
Opponent - MIN (Gee) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.38 DK - 10.06
Devers has a better PPD projection, but for all the love we have given to the BlueJays on this early slate we can't overlook the Don. Through 84 games, Josh Donaldson has 21 home runs this season and is sporting a .261/.387/.532 slash line. Today he'll face Dillon Gee making his third start in his tenth game of the season. With such limited outings, don't let the 2.84 ERA fool you, when the 4.63 xFIP tells the deeper story. Donaldson has a .386 wOBA against right handed pitchers, who have also contributed to 17 of his home runs.

Main
Evan LongoriaEvan Longoria FD 2900 DK 4000
Opponent - STL (Leake) Park - @STL
FD - 10.15 DK - 7.82
Evan Longoria has been the hot hand to ride as of late, hitting safely in five straight games with three multi-hit performances in that span with two doubles, a triple and a swiped bag. He's been filling the stat sheet from all sides, short of going yard, which he hasn't done since August first. However for all he has been doing, he has easily been paying these salaries and will look to keep the streak alive against Mike Leake and the Cardinals in Busch Stadium.

Nick CastellanosNick Castellanos FD 3200 DK 4200
Opponent - CWS (Rodon) Park - @CWS
FD - 11.25 DK - 8.68
Nick Castellanos was a late scratch last night with soreness in the wrist, and is currently considered day-to-day. No word from the Tigers yet as to what happened, though it doesn't seem to be any structural damage, so that's encouraging. If he is cleared to return to the lineup tonight though, consider him a pivot from LoMo against Carlos Rodon.

Outfield

Early
Andrew BenintendiAndrew Benintendi FD 3900 DK 5200
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.47 DK - 9.94
Mookie BettsMookie Betts FD 3900 DK 5300
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BOS
FD - 13.57 DK - 10.94
It feels like the Red Sox outfield is always in play, and rightfully so. the duo of Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi pack a powerful punch in the top of Boston's order. Betts has hit safely in four straight games, with a double, RBI, and a run scored in that stretch, while Benintendi was shut down at the plate last night ending a five game streak during which he had two multi-hit showings and launched his 18th home run of the season. Benintendi and Betts are an essential part of any Red Sox stack and also can stand alone as one off's if needed. If I had to choose one over the other, I'd lock Betts in cash and Benintendi in GPP.

Steve PearceSteve Pearce FD 3300 DK 4300
Opponent - MIN (Gee) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.64 DK - 8.89
Steve Pearce has continued to heat up since the All Star Break and had a solid month of August, so much so that he slowly made his way to the top of the order now firmly nestled in the leadoff spot. We've talked a lot about Toronto today, and a lot about RBI opportunities, and quite often Pearce will be the run batted in. Pearce has seven RBI and 14 runs scored in 20 games this month and will be an essential part of any Blue Jays stack this afternoon.

Main
George SpringerGeorge Springer FD 3700 DK 5000
Opponent - LAA (Skaggs) Park - @LAA
FD - 13.16 DK - 10.25
George Springer, currently has a top ten wOBA among outfielders (.388) and his 28 home runs not only ranks tenth at the position, but it's just one off from the career high of 29 he launched last season, yet he's not priced like a player carrying those numbers. This puts him in a good place as a top PPD play in the outfield particularly on FD where he's the twelfth highest priced outfielder. Add in to the mix the fact that he's going to be facing down Tyler Skaggs tonight who has just one win through nine starts this season, while sporting a 4.21 xFIP and is allowing a ,340 wOBA to right handed hitters and we have the makings of a tremendous value play

Kyle SchwarberKyle Schwarber FD 3500 DK 4700
Opponent - PHI (Lively) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.94 DK - 8.97
We close out in Philly where the world champion Cubs are spending the weekend at Citizens Bank Park. They stumbled through Friday night's opener scoring only one run off of Jerad Eickhoff, and will look to bounce back tonight against Ben Lively. The rookie dazzled in his debut back in July picking up his only win against the Giants, and since then has managed to put together several quality starts but has done little to overly impress. He'll be tested as he faces the Cubbies lineup for the first time tonight particularly with Kyle Schwarber, who provided the only real pop of the Chicago offense in game one of the series going 2 for 5 with a solo home run. It was Schwarber's 22nd home run of the season and his third in the past seven games. The Cubs are one of only three teams on there main slate with a run total over five, so a Cubs stack is definitely worthy of consideration and Schwarber should be a key part to it.

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11 Visitor Comments

  1. IMO, Gio is way overpriced on DK and will probably be highly owned. No thanks. I’d prefer to pay down for Gausman and take a sub-$10000 flyer on Gray to get better bats.

  2. Hey Greg put your money where your mouth is! And how about those Yankees bats yesterday? Ha Ha you have something else cowardly to say while hiding behind your phone? I bet your the type like Sanchez quick to run up on guys while they’re on the ground but too much a Chump to square up! Your boy Sanchez would have been justified squaring up but not waiting until they’re on the ground to throw a cheap shot. How about a H2H for 100 me and you today? I’ll stack my Os!

    • Hey Steve…I’d rather put my fist where YOUR mouth is, but since you are a laptop loudmouth, and no spine to speak of, there’s little chance of that happening…lucky you.

      Steve, you are an all talk and no action d-bag, and a garden variety one at that. You wouldn’t have the guts to square up with your grandmother, let alone another male, so take your tough guy talk somewhere else.

      As for your imaginary bet: you can take your stacked O’s and stick them where the sun don’t shine. First off, the O’s are garbage, second: I doubt you have anywhere near that $100.00 to throw away, not on that janitor’s salary of yours.

      • Oh yeah, and by the way moron, last I checked the NYY were ahead of your O’s in the standings, been that way most of the season. Kind of makes it foolish for you to be talking the kind of smack you do, but when you have no life, I guess that’s what you do, right little Stevie?

        • What’s up then tough guy. U want my address or u gonna give me yours? Let’s see who’s all talk?

  3. Hey Jerry no love for Baltimore today? You must not have been lucky enough to see how my boys are swinging the bat? Y’all was all over Boston yesterday and Gausman will shut em down again! Glad you put ownership towards Boston because I’ll be stacking Os again like I did last night!

  4. Are most of these picks based on BvP Jerry?

    • Hey Steve, no BvP is not something factored into the system as it’s too small a sample size to have any real bearing. As for your O’s the system wasn’t too bullish on them in the early runs though that’s not to say they’re not in consideration, we only spotlight a few top plays at each position, that doesn’t disclude the ones we don’t spotlight and I’m sure at the end of the day I’ll have a Machado or a Crush somewhere in my lineups. Good luck out there today!

  5. Thanks a lot for the response Jerry! That’s why DFSR is my favorite! Great write up today! Oh and the Os are the #1 offense in the American League since the break. Just saying.

    • Azz Kizzer much Steve? LOL! SA-MOOOOOOCH!

      • Meet me in the Bronx Friday night Sept 15th? I’d love to give you the chance!

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