Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

09/09/2017
Jerry Vanderwoude

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/9/17

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Pitcher

Early
Charlie MortonCharlie Morton FD 8700 DK 10600
Opponent - OAK (Mengden) Park - @OAK
FD - 32.93 DK - 21.81
In the early set of games, there's really only one way I'm looking to go and the system seems to fully agree with me. Charlie Morton stands head and shoulders above the rest of the pack in both raw projected points and points per dollar. Morton's first year in Houston has sparked something in the journeyman that has seen him spend stints in several cities over the course of his ten year career, but he is hitting career highs in strikeouts with 10.14 K/9, while his ERA (3.87) and xFIP (3.62) though not career best, still point to a quality season for the right hander. Today he takes the mound in Oakland to face an Athletics offense that screams mediocrity with a .320 wOBA and 99 wRC+ while striking out 24.6% of the time which is fourth most in the game. All of this and a salary that allows plenty of flexibility in bat selection.

Main
Chris SaleChris Sale FD 11300 DK 12900
Opponent - TB (Andriese) Park - @BOS
FD - 45.99 DK - 30.37
On the main slate we have a few different options to consider in the grand scheme of things, but it all begins and ends with the top contender for the AL Cy Young award Chris Sale. The Red Sox host the Rays for a weekend in Fenway. Tampa's offense is going to be fuel for the fire of a K machine like Sale. The Rays strike out 25.1% of the time, second most in baseball, and as we all know Sale has been pretty good at getting teams to swing and miss to the tune of 12.81 K/9. I don't know what more we can tell you about Chris Sale that we haven't already covered in one of these write ups this season, so lets look more at Oakland. The A's have been terrible against left handed pitching this season sporting a .298 wOBA and 85 wRC+ which ranks among the 5 worst in the game. Sale has the best odds on the day at -233 and is the textbook definition of safe on the Main tilt.

Zack GodleyZack Godley FD 9200 DK 9000
Opponent - SD (Chacin) Park - @ARI
FD - 36.6 DK - 24.19
Zack Godley may not have Chris Sale stuff (few do), but what he does have is an ideal matchup, perhaps even better than Oakland in the form of the San Diego Padres. There's really no other way to put it, the Padres stink. I don't even care what they did last night. They're not very good at this whole baseball thing. Their only saving grace is the Giants who keep their .303 wOBA and 87 wRC+ against right handed pitching from being the worst in baseball. When it comes to K upside, the Padres can deliver. Against right handers they strikeout 25% of the time. Godley to his merit has been no slouch this season, striking out nearly 10 batters per nine innings pitched and his 3.78 xFIP this season is nearly .50 points better than his career number. Godley makes for an excellent tournament option, or if you just want to fade Sale in cash he's certainly a viable option.

Alex WoodAlex Wood FD 9200 DK 8700
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @LAD
FD - 38.79 DK - 25.42
Alex Wood is taking on the Rockies outside of Coors Field, bringing them into the neutral confines of Dodger Stadium. Without the Coors factor in their favor Colorado is a completely different team and not for the better. On the road the Rockies have the fifth worst team wOBA in baseball at .303 with a 82 wRC+ and they strikeout 24.3% of the time. That last stat is a big boost for Wood who on the season is striking out 9.32 batters per 9, but over his last six starts has only averaged 6.87 per 9. Despite the drop in strikeouts, Wood has still been consistent down the stretch, lasting a minimum of six innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs per start. Wood doesn't have the same safe feeling you get from Sale and Godley, but for the price with an opening line of -220 he's surely worthy of consideration.

Catcher

Early
James McCannJames McCann FD 2800 DK 3100
Opponent - TOR (Anderson) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.04 DK - 6.93
As catchers go on the early set, you can pay up for Sanchez if you want, the system has him leading the raw point projections, but as a ppd play, you can fare better by paying down a bit. Enter James McCann. Among qualified catchers, only Buster Posey has a wOBA better than the .427 that McCann is sporting against left handed pitching and his .297 ISO is tops at the position. Brett Anderson, making his ninth start of the season will have his hands full with McCann in the batters box and I'll have my lineups full of McCann.

Main
Buster PoseyBuster Posey FD 3300 DK 3800
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.72 DK - 9.08
Long time visitors to the site know we love to pick on James Shields every five days or so. The problem we have today is that Shields will be taking on the lackluster Giants offense so there isn't a whole lot to love about targeting him. If you do want in on the action though, might I suggest the one bat with some pop in the Giants lineup. Buster Posey is going to cost you, and pairing him with Sale may be tricky, but if you can get him in your lineup it could be well worth it. Posey leads all qualified catchers with a .369 wOBA, 131 wRC+, and .342 BABIP. Posey is projected to lead scoring for backstops on the main slate, and with the interleague matchup, he should assuredly be in the Giants lineup. If you can afford him, he's an excellent play.

JT RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto FD 2600 DK 3700
Opponent - ATL (Fried) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.75 DK - 8.66
If you can't afford Posey then might I suggest J.T. Realmuto. Realmuto and the Marlins are in SunTrust Park tonight to continue their series with the Braves. Though it's a bit of a sharp drop-off after Sanchez and Posey, Realmuto ranks third among catchers with a .327 wOBA and his 16 home runs, which also rank third, is four more than Posey has on the season. He'll be facing Max Fried making only his second career start. Realmuto is the top PPD play behind the plate today and an excellent way to save some salary to spend up in other spots.

Consider: Salvador Perez vs Berrios (MIN)

First Base

Early
Kendrys MoralesKendrys Morales FD 3100 DK 4000
Opponent - DET (Bell) Park - @TOR
FD - 12.11 DK - 9.1
Justin SmoakJustin Smoak FD 3400 DK 5000
Opponent - DET (Bell) Park - @TOR
FD - 12.26 DK - 9.14
Be forewarned, we are going to be banging the Blue Jays drum quite loudly on the early slate today as they take on the Tigers. Detroit's Chad Bell will be making his second start after spending the majority of his rookie season coming out of the bullpen. We'll begin with a coin toss at first base between Kendrys Morales and Justin Smoak. Smoak is the top choice with the fifth best wOBA among all qualified first basemen (.386) currently riding a seven game on base streak. His 37 home runs lead the position. If you need to save a little salary the system feels you can get some upside out of Kendrys Morales. Morales has been swinging a hot bat down the stretch with five homers in his last nine games, including his three bomb exhibition against the Orioles last week. Smoak comes with a little more safety bundled in so I'll ride him in cash, but Morales makes for a nice tournament pivot.

Main

Ryan ZimmermanRyan Zimmerman FD 3300 DK 4800
Opponent - PHI (Leiter Jr.) Park - @WSH
FD - 12.64 DK - 9.7
Ryan Zimmerman has been hot down the stretch. He never made it out of the batters box in Thursdays opener against Philly, but made up for it last night going 2 for 5 with 2 RBI and a run scored. Thursday was more of an oddity as it was the first time in 11 games started that Zimm failed to record a base hit. He's hit two home runs in the past six games and has put up double digit FD points four times in that stretch. Today he'll get the chance to continue the offensive onslaught against rookie Mark Leiter Jr in his eighth start of the season. Zimmerman is an excellent play in all formats.

Hanley RamirezHanley Ramirez FD 3000 DK 3900
Opponent - TB (Andriese) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.03 DK - 9.23
If you're riding Sale on the main slate we need to look for value in those spots where we might normally spend up. So, if we want to bypass the Goldschmidt's and Votto's of the world and have a hard time fitting even Zimmerman into our rosters then let's give some love to Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez is a reasonably priced option, who though streaky at times tends to be reliably consistent. Ramirez has five hits and a walk in his last five games with a home run and four RBI. Today he'll be facing down Matt Andriese of the Rays. Andriese steps to the hill with a modest 3.78 ERA but the 4.40 xIP tells us regression is due. He's been much worse against right handed hitters this season to the tune of a .384 wOBA.

Consider: Justin Bour vs Fried (ATL)

Second Base

Early
Ian KinslerIan Kinsler FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - TOR (Anderson) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.41 DK - 8.36
Ian Kinsler comes in as the top PPD play of the day taking on Brett Anderson and the Blue Jays in the early slate. Anderson will make his third start in a Blue Jays uniform after being dealt by the Cubs who started him six times through the early months of the season. Through those combined starts Anderson has not impressed. He brings a 6.42 ERA to the hill and though the 4.23 xFIP claims we should expect better, we've yet to see it. Now in his twelfth season Kinsler's numbers have dipped a bit but he's still showing some life with five of his 15 home runs coming in just the past month. As a value play, I like Kinsler in all formats this afternoon.

Main
Daniel MurphyDaniel Murphy FD 3800 DK 5100
Opponent - PHI (Leiter Jr.) Park - @WSH
FD - 12.72 DK - 9.91
The Nationals are looking to lock up the NL East and they hope to move closer against Mark Leiter Jr and the Phillies. This is an excellent time to buy in on the Nationals offense as Leiter Jr has done very little through his seven career starts to show us anything to think he's going to come out here and compete with a team of the Nationals caliber. Daniel Murphy is currently riding a 13 game on base streak, during which he has 15 hits, eight walks, two home runs, seven RBI and nine runs scored. He's ranked third among qualified second basemen this season in wOBA (.383), wRC+ (135) and ISO (.228). The system has Murphy as one of the top overall plays at the position tonight and is an excellent play in all formats.

Brian DozierBrian Dozier FD 4300 DK 5000
Opponent - KC (Junis) Park - @KC
FD - 12.01 DK - 9.47
This one is more of a GPP play, or at least is only a cash play if you're fading Sale as it will be extremely tough to pair the two. Brian Dozier has hit three home runs already this month putting him in second place at the position. He ranks among the top five in just about every offensive category and today will take on a rookie in Jake Junis making his twelfth career start. Junis brings a 4.48 ERA and 4.86 xFIP to the hill today and has a 37.3% hard contact rate. I prefer Murphy, but as a GPP pivot Dozier is a good look.

Consider: Robinson Cano vs Heaney (LAA)

Shortstop

Early
Carlos CorreaCarlos Correa FD 3400 DK 4700
Opponent - OAK (Gossett) Park - @OAK
FD - 10.95 DK - 8.29
We've got several struggling young rookies to take advantage of today, in Oakland we have Daniel Gossett taking on the Astros. It's been a tough road for Gossett through his first 13 career starts. He's got a 5.32 ERA and 4.24 xFIP, with a 31,5% hard hit rate and has struggled against right handed bats with a .372 wOBA. This could mean big things for Carlos Correa who is still trying to find his groove after returning from the DL on Sunday. In his first game back Correa went 1 for 3 with a walk, run, RBI and swiped a bag, but since then has just two hits in 18 at bats. He'll look to take advantage of Gossett and the Athletics and get back on the track he was on before he was sidelined with the injury.

Main
Jean SeguraJean Segura FD 3000 DK 4200
Opponent - LAA (Heaney) Park - @SEA
FD - 10.32 DK - 8.87
Jean Segura comes in as a cheap play in a good matchup at a position where that is exactly what we are looking for. Segura is the table setter in a lineup with names like Cano and Cruz following behind him, so all he needs to do is get on base and then let the heart of the order do the rest, and that's just what he does. Segura has base hits in five of his last six games and has scored eight runs in that span. Today the Angels send Andrew Heaney to the hill and while part of his 6.98 ERA could be attributed to bad luck it can also be attributed to the 49.1 hard hit % and 45.8 HR/FB rate. Segura is a top play in all formats.

Zack CozartZack Cozart FD 3200 DK 4800
Opponent - NYM (Montero) Park - @NYM
FD - 10.82 DK - 8.41
Zack Cozart sat out to rest for Friday night's game against the Mets, so he should be back in the two hole today as the Reds look to pick up a win after dropping the first two games of the series. Cozart has been reliable at the plate this season with a .305 avg, and leads all shortstops with a .397 wOBA. That's hard to argue against for a player in his price range, particularly against the struggling Mets rotation. Cozart is another excellent play at the position and I will probably split my exposure between him and Segura evenly.

Consider: Wilmer Difo vs Leiter Jr. (PHI)

Third Base

Early
Josh DonaldsonJosh Donaldson FD 3700 DK 5300
Opponent - DET (Bell) Park - @TOR
FD - 15.17 DK - 11.4
Josh Donaldson was scratched last night due to illness, he's day to day, but it doesn't seem to be anything too serious. if he's in the lineup today not only does Donaldson have one of the top raw point projections on the day, but as a mid tiered bat, at least on FanDuel, he comes bundled with tons of upside. The Don is the third most expensive play at the hot corner on DraftKings, so it's not quite as cut and dry over there but against a rookie southpaw coming from the pen to make his second career start you've got to like the possibilities for Donaldson to do some serious damage. Through 46.2 (mostly relief) innings this season Chad Bell has compiled a 5.98 ERA and is walking 4.24 per 9. If you want to look at your options on DK then have at it, but on FD there is only one option, and thats Josh Donaldson. If Donaldson is held out again, then cross the diamond to the Tigers bullpen and look at Nick Castellanos.

Main
Jake LambJake Lamb FD 3000 DK 4900
Opponent - SD (Chacin) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.89 DK - 9.81
As I write this it looks like the diamondbacks are going to finally lose a game, to the Padres of all teams who have managed to put up a dime against them through eight innings. Despite the sudden spark in the San Diego offense, they still managed to allow eight runs to the Diamondbacks, so offensively we know Arizona is still firing. They'll look for revenge, and to start a new winning streak against Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin is a decent pitcher on a team with a bad offense, and still manages to maintain a winning record, but today he has to contend with one of the top offenses in the game in the best hitters park on the slate. Jake Lamb was 2 for 4 with a double, walk, RBI and run scored last night, giving him six hits in the last five games. Lamb had dominated against right handed pitching this season, with a .391 wOBA and all but 5 of his home runs coming off of righties. It's a favorable spot for Lamb who is an excellent play in cash with plenty of upside on that FD price tag.

Justin TurnerJustin Turner FD 3400 DK 3700
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @LAD
FD - 12.28 DK - 9.44
The Dodgers should be sitting pretty in the NL West, and while they still have a comfortable 10 game lead, they have to be concerned with the fact that they've only won one game in their last ten while the Diamondbacks have been on a 13 game tear before tonights loss to the Padres. L.A. is in line to lose another one tonight, trailing the Rockies in the eighth as of this writing. If they hope to right the ship they're going to need more performances from their key offensive pieces such as Justin Turner provided last night. Turner was 2 for 4 with a home run and two RBI in the loss, it was Turner's first multi-hit showing in a week. He'll look to ride the momentum against Chad Bettis making just his sixth start of the season. Bettis has been about as effective as putting a pitching machine out on the hill, posting a 4.72 xFIP and 4.91 ERA while allowing seven home runs through 29.1 IP. I'll take Lamb on FD for a $400 discount, but on DK it'll be Turner all day with $1200 in savings.

Outfield

Early
Steve PearceSteve Pearce FD 2700 DK 3600
Opponent - DET (Bell) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.72 DK - 10.47
Jose BautistaJose Bautista FD 3400 DK 4300
Opponent - DET (Bell) Park - @TOR
FD - 12.72 DK - 9.54
Back to Toronto we go, as the system is looking for big things from the Blue Jays today against the Detroit rookie. Steve Pearce was lifted from the game early last night with lower back stiffness, so keep an eye on his status, because if he's cleared to play he's an excellent outfield play leading off to get things started against Chad Bell. Pearce can be a risky play, but is priced right to be a key part of a Toronto stack. Then there's Joey Bats. Bautista hit his second home run in three games last night in the series opener, and now has seven hits and three walks in his last five games. It's been a rollercoaster of a season for Bautista, but it looks as though he could close it out on a high note if he continues through the rest of September the way he opened it, and he'll try to continue doing just that against Bell.

Main
David PeraltaDavid Peralta FD 3400 DK 4100
Opponent - SD (Chacin) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.93 DK - 10.34
David Peralta was 0 for 3 last night against right hander Jordan Lyles, with two strikeouts. If that's not an anomaly I don't know what is. Peralta has been money in the bank against right handed pitching this season putting up a .308 avg. and .355 wOBA against the split. It's with that that I will go right back to the well with Peralta tonight, as San Diego sends another right hander to the hill in Chase Field. Jhoulys Chacin comes in to todays game with a 4.55 xFIP and has struggled against the split, allowing a .343 wOBA to the right side of the plate. He's walking nearly twice as many batters from the left side compared to the right and is allowing left handed hitters a 34% hard hit rate. Im looking for a big bounce back for Peralta tonight and will have exposure in all formats.

Giancarlo StantonGiancarlo Stanton FD 4500 DK 5700
Opponent - ATL (Fried) Park - @ATL
FD - 16.26 DK - 12.22
I hate using the term "must play", but if you must play any one position player this evening it's Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton has been murdering baseballs from city to city this season regardless of who's throwing them. His 53 home runs are 14 more than any other player in the game has, he's got the highest ISO (.363) and his .416 wOBA and 160 wRC+ are top five among all qualified players. Today he'll bring all of that into the box against Max Fried with just one start under his belt and five total appearances. All it will take is one mistake from the young southpaw and Stanton will rip number 54 and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it happen. It's not going to be easy, but I'm going to do whatever it takes to have as much Giancarlo as I can muster into my lineups.

Adam DuvallAdam Duvall FD 3000 DK 4900
Opponent - NYM (Montero) Park - @NYM
FD - 11.15 DK - 8.52
He may not be on par with Giancarlo Stanton, but he's also not priced like it, and that could be good for us, as Adam Duvall to his own right has 31 home runs this year, enough to rank among the top ten outfielders this season. With just under a month to go in the season Duvall is two blasts shy of the 33 he hit in his first full season last year, and is posting the best slash line of his young career (.251/.301/.501). Today the Mets will counter the Reds offense with Rafael Montero. Injury plagued, Montero is the best the Metropolitans can come up with which is really just sad. Montero steps to the hill with a 5.21 ERA walking nearly five batters per nine, and a .363 BABIP. I might stay away on DK but the FD price is screaming upside. I'll use Duvall in all formats.

Consider: Curtis Granderson vs Bettis (Col), Nelson Cruz vs Heaney (LAA)

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2 Visitor Comments

  1. Any picks from early game 1:00?

    • Hey Flipa, for pitching in the 1:00 hour clearly Severino is the top pitcher going, though I would probably run Tomlin and use the savings to load up on Cleveland and Yankee bats with maybe Napoli or Odor mixed in for good measure. Thanks for reading!

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