Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/11/17
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So, um, not entirely sure what's going on between FanDuel and the Brewers, but these prices seem wrong and bad. Sure, with the exception of a 15-run explosion over the weekend, they've been scuffling pretty badly on offense, but wow. A hitter-friendly park, a hitter-friendly pitcher, an implied total at 5+ runs, and nobody over $3.2K? We're gonna have to take some shots here. We don't have much to go on with Pirates starter Steven Brault, and he had some nice K numbers in Triple-A this year, but in 52 big-league innings, he's been below average in pretty much every regard -- 6.58 Ks/9, 4.33 BBs/9, 5.19 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 5.31 xFIP. He made his only 2017 start with the Pirates a week ago and failed strike anybody out while giving up eight hits and three runs in 5 IP against the Cubs' JV team. So, like we said, we're not impressed. As for the Brewers, they've been bad. No doubt about it. They've scored more than four runs just once in the last 10 games, and that's surely why we're getting them at such a discount on FD. Hopefully that slump will keep them from becoming too chalky, because as they showed us in Saturday's matchup with Mike Montgomery, there's still enough thump in this lineup to put up lots of crooked numbers. Among the projected starters, we've got four with a wOBA over .340 vs. LHP (Hernan Perez, Domingo Santana, Jesus Aguilar and Keon Broxton) and four with an ISO over .200 (Santana, Aguilar, Broxton and Travis Shaw). You might have noticed that Ryan Braun is missing from both lists, which is odd. He's been weirdly mediocre by his standards against southpaws this season (.323 wOBA, .185 ISO), but we're not leaving him out of our stacks. The sample size is still tiny (79 PAs), and over the last two years, we're still talking about a guy with a .381 OBA and .225 ISO in the split. Over on DK, the pricing isn't as silly, but we think they're in play there, too.
For such a barren pitching slate, you'd think we'd have more obvious go-to stacks, but that's not really the case tonight. Sure, there are plenty of usable stacks that could take down a GPP if things go right, but there's not really an air-tight case for any of them. I'd expect both sides of the Baltimore-Toronto game to get a fair amount of interest with Marco Estrada and Ubaldo Jiminez taking the hill in a hitter's park, and a game stack might not be a bad idea. I'm giving the Blue Jays the slight advantage here -- mostly because half of the Toronto lineup makes me nauseous. Estrada is, ostensibly, a better pitcher than Ubaldo, but he's been wildly inconsistent this year. He's maintained the strikeout gains he made in 2016, but has regressed elsewhere with a 5.00 ERA that's backed up by a 5.05 xFIP. Of note, much of damage is coming in clusters, and he's given up at least five runs in 10 of his 29 starts. And if he's off his game in this one, the Orioles are well-positioned to take advantage of a struggling fly-ball pitcher. Of the top six hitters in their lineup, only Tim Beckham has an ISO lower than .196 vs. RHP this season, and he's obviously found another gear, slashing .348/.382/.585 since joining the O's.
Admittedly, Kyle Freeland's 60% ground ball rate gives us pause here, but the Diamondbacks have been too good against lefties to fully fade. The Iannetta-Goldy-Martinez-Pollock stack won't be cheap, but it should be doable unless you're going double-ace on DK. Those first three are especially enticing, each with an ISO over .220 and a wOBA over .400 vs. southpaws. And while sample-size caveats apply, I present J.D. Martinez vs. LHP in 2017: .541 wOBA, .519 ISO. Meanwhile, getting grounders is about the only thing Freeland has done well against righties this season. He's still yielded a 4.99 xFIP, .342 wOBA and nearly as many walks as Ks. It would probably be advisable to keep this a smaller, supporting stack instead of forcing in five guys, because the potential for multiple HRs off Freeland is still pretty low. But Martinez's 26.8 GB% vs. lefties is one of the lowest in baseball, so we think the risk/reward that he elevates one tonight makes it a worthwhile gamble.
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