Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/25/17

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Pitcher

Yu Darvish FD 9600 DK 12300
Opponent - SD (Wood) Park - @LAD
FD - 35.95 DK - 23.79

Nearing the end of the season, you can almost throw the word "safe" out the window when talking about pitching. Most guys are either coasting into the playoffs and only throwing 85-95 pitches or they are out of the race and winding down. Darvish is part of that first group, but at least he has everything else working for him. Even at 95 pitches, Darvish should be able to produce against the Padres. He has dominated in his last 2 with 0 earned runs in 12 innings, but a lot of people are still scared about that rough stretch beforehand. Darvish is one of the nastiest starters in the league and will always hold an elite strikeout rate (10.2). Against the Padres in Dodgers Field, he's safe. The Padres have posted a .299 wOBA against righties and have backed it up with a putrid 25.1% strikeout rate. Darvish is expensive, but he's probably your safest bet for a quality start.

Jon Lester FD 8400 DK 8400
Opponent - STL (Weaver) Park - @STL
FD - 32.17 DK - 21.31

Jon Lester was absolutely horrible last start, so I don't think many will want to play him with so many talented arms on the slate. Lester is one of the rare pitchers who doesn't fit into either of the 2 aforementioned categories. The Cubs are playing for the division lead and the Cardinals are the team chasing them. Lester is extremely good against left-handed dominant lineups and we know the Cardinals are much worse against lefties. On the season, the Cards have sported a .331 wOBA and a 23% strikeout rate. Busch Stadium is much better for pitching than Wrigley Field and Lester has held a .276 combined wOBA on the road. His price is a bit lower than it should be on both sites and I'll have exposure in both formats. Lester is a big game pitcher and I would expect him to get into postseason form before long. We know the Cardinals can be shut down. They also lack the big speed that usually gets to Lester and causes him to fall apart.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez FD 3500 DK 5300
Opponent - KC (Junis) Park - @NYY
FD - 11.02 DK - 8.46

Without any mid-priced catchers in good match-ups, you should probably either pay up or wait for lineups to come out and punt. This Yankees game is early, so be aware of that. If the late slate is all you're playing, he's not available. If you're looking to pay up, you know what that means. Gary Sanchez is the top player at on most nights and tonight is no different. He's at home and facing off with Jake Junis. Junis has been very good for a rookie, but playing half of your innings in Kauffman Stadium and allowing 12 homers in 60 innings is troublesome. This Yankees team can mash righties and the power in the middle of the order is unmatched. In just over 300 at-bats, Sanchez has smashed righties for a .369 wOBA and 24 home runs. He's on his way to being the most productive catcher in baseball once again and does most of his damage against righties. If you have the money to spend up, there's no reason not to.

Salvador Perez FD 3400 DK 3800
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @NYY
FD - 9.26 DK - 7.06

On FanDuel, find a way to get an extra $100 and pay up for Gary Sanchez. On DraftKings, the price difference is a much fairer $1500. He's viable there, where you do get some decent savings. The Royals face off with C.C. Sabathia, who's allowed a .320 wOBA and 18 home runs to righties. He has been a pretty average arm, but he does give up a lot of HR's and we know Perez can hit them out. He has 26 homers on the season, and with him playing in the spacious Kauffman Stadium, that number should probably be around 30. He is the one mid-priced option I like in all formats and I will have some exposure in DK cash games. If you have no interest in either of these options or are just playing the later slate, I would suggest waiting for lineups to come out and punting a guy who finds his way into a solid lineup spot.

First Base

Justin Bour FD 5300 DK 5000
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 4.92 DK - 3.72

Justin Bour is a guy I haven't been high on, but I'll admit he's been proving me wrong. He has been a consistent hitter against righties all-year long and has finally brought a good lefty power bat to Miami. He has 25 homers on the season and I think this is a guy who may hit 40 just next year. He's held a .395 wOBA against righties and gets to move into Coors Field. If that's not enough, he faces a pitcher in Tyler Chatwood who's given up a .360 wOBA to lefties. Bour is priced way up because of Coors Field, but he may be in one of the best spots of the night to homer. With plenty of other guys to pay down on the slate, you can definitely fit Bour and an elite pitcher if you want. The Marlins are expected to put up a bunch of runs tonight and you can be almost sure Bour will be a part of it. Fade with caution.

Hanley Ramirez FD 2700 DK 3800
Opponent - TOR (Anderson) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.1 DK - 7.75

If paying over $5000 for Justin Bour isn't what you're into, Hanley Ramirez is an affordable pivot with plenty of upside. As we know, Hanley has struggled a bit this season, but a .440 wOBA against right-handers in 2016 is nothing short of sad. Brett Anderson on the other hand, has been pathetic with a .417 combined wOBA and .375 against righties. The Red Sox are one of the top stacks of the night and I figure they will be very popular. Brett Anderson hasn't been good in about 5 years and he now moves into Fenway Park to face a Red Sox team still fighting for the playoffs. I don't think he makes it out of the 4th and Hanley should have something to do with it. He has one of the best prices on the board for his HR expectancy.

Second Base

Yoan Moncada FD 3900 DK 4000
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @CHW
FD - 8.7 DK - 7.26

Yoan Moncada has quickly solidified himself as one of the better 2B in baseball. He was the number 1 prospect in baseball for 2 years and this was expected, but just not yet. He has held a .365 wOBA against right-handers and has the combo of speed and power that is nearly unmatched. In U.S. Cellular Field, you have to love him against a bad righty. Ricky Nolasco certainly fits that mold. HE has allowed a .332 wOBA against lefties and a .383 against righties. He moves into U.S. Cellular Field, which is a lot better for hitting than Angels Stadium. He's going to have a lot of troubles against the White Sox and I think the combo of Moncada/Abreu is going to do most of the damage. Second base is probably the weakest position on the slate and Moncada does have a bit more upside than most.

Logan Forsythe FD 2600 DK 3000
Opponent - SD (Wood) Park - @LAD
FD - 8.45 DK - 6.64

Forsythe is not as good as we thought he was in Tampa Bay. He's always going to hit lefties well, but he's nearly useless at the plate against righties. Fortunately, we don't care. He faces Travis Wood tonight and gets to use his skills against lefties. Since the start of the season, a .376 wOBA has been backed up by a 41% hard contact and 30% line drive rate. Travis Wood on the other hand, has allowed a .387 wOBA to righties. The Dodgers are one of the top plays on the slate and we will get to a few more of them as we move along. As for Forsythe, he does have extreme splits against lefties and he should move up in the order. He makes for a strong cash game and tournament play, as long as he not in the 7 or 8 hole. In that case, reserve him for tournaments and Dodgers stacks. 

Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts FD 3500 DK 4600
Opponent - TOR (Anderson) Park - @BOS
FD - 9.99 DK - 7.92

Outside of Coors Field, the Red Sox hold the highest expected run total on the night. At 5.68, you have to pay attention. Bogaerts has been in the lead-off spot against lefties as of late and he's done a great job. The power has been nearly obsolete this year, but a .310+ wOBA against both sides of the plate is something you have to love. He is the most consistent bat on the Red Sox team and if you're stacking, you better get him in there. Brett Anderson has been absolutely atrocious with a .375 wOBA against righties and he isn't getting any younger. He offers a 4-pitch arsenal that at this point, has 0 strong pitches. Expect the Sox to put up some runs and for Bogaerts to get involved. Shortstop isn't the greatest position on the night, and Bogaerts is probably your safest bet.

Corey Seager FD 2700 DK 3800
Opponent - SD (Wood) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.21 DK - 7.86

It might be weird to see Corey Seager being recommended in a lefty-lefty match-up, but hear me out. Since the start of 2017, Seager has thwarted lefties to an insane .391 wOBA. He's also hit 8 of his 20 homers against them. He has been better against righties in past years, but has done something to turn it around with a complete 180. You then have Travis Wood, who's given up a .360 wOBA and a 2 HR/9 to lefties. Wood is likely in his last year in the majors and is just crawling to the finish line. The Dodgers would like to get it going before the big show and this match-up is a great one to do that. With Corey Seager facing a lefty, in hoping his ownership is low. I'm Im a big fan in both cash games and tournaments, and he's just about tied with Bogaerts. His price is just substantially lower. 

Third Base

Justin Turner FD 4000 DK 4000
Opponent - SD (Wood) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.08 DK - 7.75

Luis Valbuena FD 2800 DK 2700
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @CHW
FD - 8.15 DK - 6.1

I have no idea how, but we have ignored this Angels offense so far. Facing off against James Shields, however, they are one of the top tournament stacks of the night. Shields hasn't been horrible recently, but he is truly horrible. He has allowed a .393 wOBA against lefties and an astounding 17 home runs in 52 innings. He also has the Angels moving into U.S. Cellular Field, which is a huge upgrade for them. Luis Valbuena is generally a boom/bust play, so you should probably keep him out of the cash games. With that being said, a home run to James Shields is just like a single. I mean, he gives up a sad 3 per 9 innings. Justin Turner is clearly better than Valbuena here, but he's a lot more expensive and will be higher owned. Let's touch on the Angels right away in the OF.

Outfield

Mike Trout FD 4300 DK 5200
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.96 DK - 10.12
Giancarlo Stanton FD 5500 DK 5800
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 13.47 DK - 10.12

Josh Reddick FD 3600 DK 4300
Opponent - LAA (Cashner) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.55 DK - 8.29

We haven't touched on the Astros at all yet, but they are most certainly in play. Jose Altuve at 2B and Carlos Correa at SS are 2 guys I have a lot of interest in in tournaments. In the outfield, Josh Reddick is one of my favorites. He is fantastic against righties and sits between George Springer and Jose Altuve. He has posted a .363 wOBA against righties and a .378 at home. He faces off with Andrew Cashner, who has been admittedly better than expected. However, a .250 BABIP against lefties paired with a .311 wOBA and 9 homers in 60 innings isn't great. He's worse on the road and this Astros team won't give him any breaks. I don't think Cashner has a very good game here and while I don't love the Astros, they are an offense you probably want some exposure to. Reddick is my favorite way to do it.

Mookie Betts FD 4500 DK 5300
Opponent - TOR (Anderson) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.03 DK - 8.89
Chris Young FD 2100 DK 3100
Opponent - TOR (Anderson) Park - @BOS
FD - 8.39 DK - 6.45
Rajai Davis FD 2000 DK 3800
Opponent - TOR (Anderson) Park - @BOS
FD - 9.17 DK - 8.25

Who knows what the Red Sox will actually throw out there as a lineup. They typically get Benintendi in there, so either Davis or Young will likely see the pine. Either way, all 3 of these guys are elite against lefties if they are in the lineup, you better get exposure. Starting with Betts, he's the star. He has posted a .381 wOBA against lefties and has upped that to a .407 in Fenway Park. Davis and Young are super cheap, and they are made to smash lefties. Chris Young has posted a .367 wOBA and Davis has held a .348. Young has a bit more power upside and I assume he will be lower owned. If Rajai is in there, I assume he will be either leading off or in the 9 hole. Brett Anderson, who we've talked about, has allowed a .375 wOBA against righties. All in all, just wait until the lineup comes out and make your decisions. Just keep in mind that Brett Anderson is not good anymore.

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