Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

09/27/2017
Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/27/17

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Pitcher

Luis SeverinoLuis Severino FD 10400 DK 12400
Opponent - TB (Andriese) Park - @NYY
FD - 42.86 DK - 28.24

This late in the year, there isn't a single pitcher that is safe on any given night. Most guys are only seeing 80-90 pitches and the others aren't very good. While we will occasionaly see a game with a contender looking for a spot, we don't have any that stick out tonight. There are some teams in contention or guarding a spot, but they aren't in great spots. We're going to look at Luis Severino first, who falls in the first set. He may only see an upwards of 90 or 95 pitches, but they should be very productive against the Rays. We know how bad the Rays have been all year long and over just the last 60 days, they have held a team .301 wOBA and 24% strikeout rate against righties. On the season, the wOBA rises just .2 and the K rate jumps to nearly 26%. They're also far worse on the road with a .287 wOBA, so the Rays are all kinds of bad against right-handed pitching. Severino on the other hand, has posted a .274 combined wOBA while striking out 10.62 batters per 9 innings. He's an elite pitcher at this point and you have to look at him as the safest option on the board. The Rays stink, the Yankees want to win and Severino is a great pitcher. That's all you can ask for at this point in the season.

 

Garrett RichardsGarrett Richards FD 7200 DK 7900
Opponent - CHW (Lopez) Park - @CHW
FD - 28.18 DK - 18.66

If you need some extra money and are still looking for some safety, Garrett Richards is a solid choice. If you haven't been paying attention to the MLB for very long, Richards may not be a familiar name. He was a huge Angels prospect and the ace coming into 2015, but has been dealing with injuries on and off ever since. The point is that he has the pedigree and the "stuff" to get it done. He also faces one of the worst offenses in baseball in the Chicago White Sox. The offense is just Yoan Moncada and Jose Abreu. As a team, they strikeout close to 26% of the time and don't back it up with great hitting numbers. Richards hasn't been through many innings, but Hess effective with a. .311 wOBA against. Expect a solid 5 or 6 innings and the wins Richards, like most pitchers, will be kept below 100 pitchers. If you're able to find a guy you think has a chance to get stretched out over 100, go for it. I don't think one exists on the slate. Richards is a solid play in all formats that's a bit cheaper than Severino and has similar upside with the capped pitch count.

Early - Justin Verlander

Catcher

Gary SanchezGary Sanchez FD 3700 DK 5000
Opponent - TB (Andriese) Park - @NYY
FD - 13.15 DK - 10.1

On most nights when Gary Sanchez tops catcher, it has more to do with what's not on the slate. He's the best fantasy catcher in the league and he is always a threat to hit one out. However, he has an exceptionally great match-up tonight with Matt Andriese. Andriese, a righty, is an extreme reverse splits pitcher. He's pretty good against lefties, but sits at an awful .386 wOBA against righties. We know Sanchez is also a reverse splits guy, so this match-up is the perfect recipe. My 2 favorite power bats on this slate are Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge, which is rare to say. I just think Andriese is an absolute dumpster fire against righties. It's also the end of the season, so they are getting pitches in the strike zone to hit. Sanchez is one of the top plays on the entire slate and a very good option if you can afford him. Put it this way. Sanchez would be one of my favorite plays if he was at 1B or 3B, let alone catcher. Play him in all formats.

Stephen VogtStephen Vogt FD 2100 DK 3100
Opponent - CIN (Bailey) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.25 DK - 7.18

The Brewers are going to be one of our top offenses on this slate and we'll start right out at catcher with Stephen Vogt. Vogt was a great play just last night and he somehow ended up legging out 3 doubles. He will look to follow it up tonight against Homer Bailey and hopefully be able to jog around the bases this time. Bailey has been absolutely awful this year and there isn't any other way to describe. We'll dive in deeper a bit later, but the guy has a .381 combined wOBA in over 80 innings. It's hard to do. Stephen Vogt isn't some masher against righties, but a .338 wOBA is fine for a catcher who's bounced around from team to team. He'll be hitting behind Braun and Santana, so expect the RBI opportunities to be there. Vogt makes for a solid option if you don't want to pay up for Sanchez, or if you simply can't. 

Early - Jonathan Lucroy, Evan Gattis

First Base

Eric ThamesEric Thames FD 3400 DK 4000
Opponent - CIN (Bailey) Park - @MIL
FD - 13.58 DK - 10.47

We'll stay right in Milwaukee for 1B and take a look at Eric Thames. Thames started off the year looking like the next Babe Ruth, but has come down to earth like expected. Still, it was no fluke. It was just a very good hitter going through a huge hot streak. He's still a .375 wOBA hitter against righties who will hit over 30 homers year in and year out. He gets a match-up with Homer Bailey, a guy who has allowed 65 earned runs in 80 innings. He's a bottom 5 MLB starter and can be attacked from every which way. Thames isn't power reliant either, posting a .391 OBP on a 22.7 wRAA against right-handers. The Brewers are expected to put up just under 6 runs and I do think they end up going over. Everyone from 1-6 is in play and don't worry, we will talk about a couple more. At 1B, there's always a lot of ways to go, but Thames is our favorite in both cash games and tournaments.

Mitch MorelandMitch Moreland FD 2800 DK 3600
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.26 DK - 8.46

If Thames is a bit too pricey for you or you're Homer Bailey's mom, you can go with Mitch Moreland in Boston. He's a bit cheaper, but comes in with nearly the same HR expectancy. The Sox are facing off with Marco Estrada, so you'll know we'll see at least a homer or two. Since the start of 2016, he's held a 1.63 HR/9 and a .336 combined wOBA, when not giving up homers, he's not too bad. He just occasionally lifts the ball and gets taken advantage of quite easily. Moreland is known for being a boom/bust hitter, but has 47 doubles this year, so he can get in on the fun as well. I'll only have exposure I tournaments, but that has more to do with my love of Eric Thames. If you don't like Thames, I have no problem with Moreland in cash games. 

Early - Justin Bour

Second Base

Neil WalkerNeil Walker FD 3300 DK 4000
Opponent - CIN (Bailey) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.95 DK - 9.82

I told you we like the Brewers a lot. I promise I'll skip over a few of them, but second isn't the spot to do it. It's one of the worst positions of the night and you have a guy in Walker that can hit an HR without blinking an eye. Walker has obliterated righties for years now and this season is no different with a .366 wOBA. He has 14 homers on the year and had 23 in 2016. He's also a switch-hitter, so he'll always have the platoon advantage. Walker has been a huge addition for the Brewers and isn't a guy the Mets should have ever dropped. As for Homer Bailey, he's sported a .357 wOBA against lefties all the while getting lucky with a .265 BABIP. He's only getting worse and the Brewers should be able to do damage. Walker is as safe as any of the Brewers and is priced very fairly on both sites. I won't hesitate in any format.

Logan ForsytheLogan Forsythe FD 2900 DK 3000
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.94 DK - 7.8

Clayton Richard is a lot better of a pitcher than many think, but so is Logan Forsythe against lefties. He is way too cheap and if you need to pay down, Forsythe is a great way to do it. Since the start of 2016, Forsythe has held a .398 wOBA and a .169 ISO. He also hits offspeed pitches better, which is great news against Richard. Richard has allowed an insane .370 wOBA and 22 homers in 140 innings against righties. He's backed it up with a 37% hard contact rate and 24% LD rate. He has been better as of late, but against righties on the road, he has a long way to go. The Dodgers will be mostly ignored on this slate and I'll play a decent part of it at the other positions. Forsythe is a fantastic value at 2.9 and 3K and could be one of the bats you use to pay up for pitcher and Gary Sanchez/Aaron Judge. If you have the funds, I like Walker considerably more in cash games.

Early - Robinson Cano

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Shortstop

Trea TurnerTrea Turner FD 4000 DK 5200
Opponent - PHI (Leiter Jr.) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.35 DK - 10.44Shortstop is a pretty fun position tonight and there are quite a few different guys I have interest in. Trea Turner is my favorite and of course, the most expensive. The Nationals face off with Mark Leiter Jr. tonight, who has a long way to go until he can be taken seriously against a lineup like this. He's not nearly as bad as some of the pitchers on this slate, but a .332 wOBA is nothing to write home about. He is young and in 3 years, this game will be a different story. Trea Turner is one of the best shortstops in baseball and probably the best fantasy one. He's hit righties to a .353 clip on the year and has a power/speed combo that can't be matched. In just under 400 at-bats, he has 11 homers and 42 stolen bases. His upside is unmatched at the position and if you can afford him, go for it.

Didi GregoriusDidi Gregorius FD 3500 DK 4500
Opponent - TB (Andriese) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.97 DK - 8.58

The Yankees are a team we love tonight and we're right back on them with Didi Gregorius at shortstop. Gregorius is a pretty weird player in general, but he gets it done against righties in Yankee Stadium. On the season, he's held a .349 wOBA while hitting 25 home runs. Matt Andriese is a lefty that worse against righties, but I'm not worried. He's still allowed a .311 wOBA ago lefties and they will take advantage with runners on-base. I also think the Yankees get Andriese out of the game by the 3rd or 4th inning, which would let Didi see the bullpen for 2 or 3 at-bats. Trea Turner is very expensive and if you need a pivot, You can do a lot worse than Didi Gregorius against a bad righty.

Early - Trevor Story

Third Base

Mike MoustakasMike Moustakas FD 2800 DK 4500
Opponent - DET (Zimmermann) Park - @KC
FD - 12.3 DK - 9.3

We haven't touched on the Royals yet, but they are a stack you can rely on in tournaments. Facing off with Jordan Zimmerman, you can expect some runs in Kansas City. Zimmerman has allowed a .383 wOBA to lefties and a .373 to lefties. He has been utterly horrid all season long and I don;t see him having much luck against this Pesky Royals team while on the road. As for Moustakas, he is one of the top plays on the slate. On FanDuel, he is far too cheap and almost a must-play in cash games. He has obliterated righties with a .354 wOBA and 29 home runs and an even better .382 at home. This entire team is in play and Moustakas is the head of it all. He's my pick for HR of the night and I'm looking to make it 5 in a row. Let's go Moose!!!

Rafael DeversRafael Devers FD 3700 DK 3900
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @BOS
FD - 11 DK - 8.6

On FanDuel, go to the outfield. Moustakas is too cheap and a guy I'll have plugged into every one of my cash games. On DraftKings, however, Devers is $600 cheaper, like he should be. Rafael Devers has quickly emerged from the minors and become a star in just a couple months. He has 10 homers in less than 200 plate appearances and a very lucky line against lefties. Against righties, things look to be in line. He holds a .342 wOBA with a 41% hard contact rate and a 20% K rate. The Sox are expected to put up over 5 runs tonight and Devers will be hitting right behind the core of the order. He is somewhat boom/bust, but go to Moustakas or a different expensive option if that's what you're looking for. Estrada isn't someone people love targeting, so expect the Sox to come in around 8-10% owned across the board. I love the stack in a tournament.

Early - Nolan Arenado, Kyle Seager

Outfield

Aaron JudgeAaron Judge FD 5100 DK 5700
Opponent - TB (Andriese) Park - @NYY
FD - 14.2 DK - 10.85

Aaron Judge is on one of those runs where he's putting everything he sees 600 feet back. It's pretty amazing to watch and even more amazing to play in DFS. He will cost you an arm and a leg tonight, but we touched on a few guys that can help you out along the way. He faces off with Matt Andriese, who we've touched on a bit. He's a righty, who's allowed an insane .386 wOBA against opposing righties. Judge is now at a .436 wOBA against righties and ready to hit another finger. The play is obvious. It just comes down to whether or not you have the funds to fit him in. 

Ryan BraunRyan Braun FD 3900 DK 4600
Opponent - CIN (Bailey) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.5 DK - 9.92
Domingo SantanaDomingo Santana FD 3700 DK 4900
Opponent - CIN (Bailey) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.09 DK - 8.59

We've only looked at lefties against Homer Bailey so far, but he's actually been a lot worse against righties on the year. In just over 40 innings, Bailey has found a way to allow a .412 wOBA against righties. He will now move into Miller Park and try his best to make it 5 innings without getting obliterated. Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana are both extremely powerful and able to change the slate with a swing. Both are better against lefties, but respective .346 and .365 wOBA's against righties are professional numbers. Expect a big game out of the Brew Crew and for these key OF's to be a part of it. If you couldn't tell, the Brewers are our favorite stack of the night.

Alex PresleyAlex Presley FD 3100 DK 3400
Opponent - KC (Hammel) Park - @KC
FD - 8.56 DK - 7.02
Nicholas Castellanos FD 3000 DK 3500
Opponent - KC (Hammel) Park - @KC
FD - 6.86 DK - 7.07

Alex Presley might not be a guy that you often sought out, but it has more to do with the team he's on. Presley is a good hitter and would get more attention if what he was doing mattered. He's sported a .342 wOBA against righties and strikes out just 16% of the time. He's not a power guy, but his price is fair and he can get you exposure to a Tigers team with an implied total near 5. As for Castellanos, he's been a 3B for his entire career and has been terrific in the outfield of late. He's held a .372 wOBA on the year and both of these guys make sense in cash games, as well as tourneys. They aren't my favorite OF by any means, but I doubt they see more than 3 or 4% ownership, which is criminally low in this spot.

Early - Coors Field, George Springer, Matt Joyce, Denard Span

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