Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

09/28/2017
Chris Durell

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/28/17

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Pitcher

Sonny GraySonny Gray FD 9200 DK 11700
Opponent - TB (Faria) Park - @NYY
FD - 36.22 DK - 23.79

Well, we are now less than a week away from the end of the regular season and the key for DFS is honing in on teams who have something to play for down the stretch. Enter Sonny Gray and the Yankees who still have a shot at catching the Red Sox for the American League East with five games remaining. Since joining the Yankees in early August Gray has been very consistent with a 3.12 ERA as he has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs eight of his 10 starts with an above average 8.46 K/9 rate. Besides the park factor, he also gets a top matchup vs. the Rays who have struck out 24.8% against right-handed pitching. He is my top pitcher tonight and safe in all formats.

Sean ManaeaSean Manaea FD 6500 DK 6200
Opponent - TEX (Gonzalez) Park - @TEX
FD - 24.69 DK - 16.59

The SP2 decision tonight is a little tougher than usual with teams clinched and overall motivations unknown for all teams. Both Oakland and Texas will be watching the Playoffs from home and I lean Sean Manaea in this matchup as the Rangers have been terrible lately ranking dead last in wOBA(.240) and wRC+(39) while striking out 30.9% of the time. Manaea has been up and down all year and the ERA(4.56) shows it. The upside is lacking as he has only struck out more than six batters twice in the second half but this pick is more about the price in the mid $6k range on both sites that allows you to stack any team you wish.

Also Consider Carlos Carrasco(CLE) if you are playing the early or all day slate.

Catcher

Gary SanchezGary Sanchez FD 3700 DK 4800
Opponent - TB (Faria) Park - @NYY
FD - 12.45 DK - 9.56

After taking the league by storm in August and September in 2016, Sanchez picked up where he left off in his first full season. He entered Wednesday night's action with an impressive .283/.349/.541 slash line with 33 home runs and 90 RBI. The matchup isn't at the top of the list as Faria has been decent this year with a 3.33 ERA while holding opponents to a 10% HR/FB rate but he has given up a home run in five of his last seven starts and struggled last time he faced the Yankees going just four innings and walking five batters. With limited upper tier pitching it won't be hard to get Sanchez in your lineups and he does carry the most upside at the position by a long shot.

Salvador PerezSalvador Perez FD 3300 DK 3900
Opponent - DET (Norris) Park - @KC
FD - 11.02 DK - 8.41

Perez has not been able to duplicate the .300+ average he displayed in his first two seasons(limited at-bats) but has continued to grow in the power department. He enters Thursday with a career-high 27 home runs and 80 RBI and has rebounded nicely after a dreadful August(.125 average). The Royals are eliminated from playoff contention but Perez has been red-hot down the stretch with a .442 wOBA and 180 wRC+ and will look to close out the season on a strong note. Best of all, he comes at a price south of $4K on both sites.

 

First Base

Matt CarpenterMatt Carpenter FD 4000 DK 4000
Opponent - CHC (Hendricks) Park - @STL
FD - 11.11 DK - 8.45

Carpenter and the Cardinals are one of those teams with a ton to play for tonight as they are currently three games back of the Rockies in the NL Wildcard as of Wednesday evening. The PTS/$ ranking is a bit better on DraftKings as he is the 10th most expensive option even on an eight-game slate and he has also been hot lately. He entered Wednesday's game with hits in nine of his previous 11 games including four home runs and 10 runs scored and gets that DFSR bump as he hits out of the leadoff spot.

Ryon HealyRyon Healy FD 2700 DK 3800
Opponent - TEX (Gonzalez) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.15 DK - 7.84

Healy is a little overpriced on DraftKings considering he has been a more productive vs. left-handed pitching this season but I am willing to take the risk on FanDuel where he comes in under $3K tonight. Overall, it has been a productive first full season in the majors as he has clubbed 25 long balls and driven in 76 runs and has been closing out the year in style with hits in 14 of his last 18 games. Despite pitching well lately, Miguel Gonzalez has been a top arm to target against all season with his 4.62 ERA and even worse 5.70 xFIP

Second Base

Jose AltuveJose Altuve FD 4400 DK 5300
Opponent - BOS (Rodriguez) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.72 DK - 10.67

The current AL MVP odds leader is one of the top batters to pay up for tonight despite the tougher matchup vs. Eduardo Rodriguez. He returned to the lineup yesterday going 1 for 4 with two runs scored after sitting out the day before as he was hit in the forearm by a pitch. The Astros will definitely want him back in the lineup again on Thursday as they are in a dead heat with the Indians for the best record in the American League and home-field advantage in the ALCS. He is worth the price and more considering he can help you in almost every fantasy category including average, power, speed, and run scoring.

Ian KinslerIan Kinsler FD 3600 DK 3700
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @KC
FD - 9.85 DK - 7.91

Overall, it's been a disappointing season for Kinsler who has posted a career-low in a lot of categories but has been consistent down the stretch with hits in 17 of 24 games in September. That includes eight home runs, 13 RBI, and 13 runs scored which is fairly impressive considering the Tigers have been out of contention pretty much the entire second half of the season and traded away some of their best players. He also matches up nicely when looking at the splits as he has been much more productive vs. southpaws with a .374 wOBA and 133 wRC+ on the season.

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Shortstop

Carlos CorreaCarlos Correa FD 3600 DK 4900
Opponent - BOS (Rodriguez) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.22 DK - 9.25

After missing nearly two months with a thumb injury that required surgery, Correa returned in early September but predictably struggled out the gate. The good news is that he is starting to heat up just in time for playoffs and for us DFSers, his price is still down on FanDuel making him a top target tonight. He has now gone 11 for his last 21 including four doubles, two home runs, 10 RBI and six runs scored. Like I mentioned with Altuve, the matchup isn't at the top of the list but the price is right(on FanDuel) and the Astros are locked in a battle with the Indians for home field advantage through the ALCS.

Marcus SemienMarcus Semien FD 4000 DK 4500
Opponent - TEX (Gonzalez) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.85 DK - 9.43

Semien's name shows up near the top of both the raw points and PTS/$ projections tonight for a couple reasons. First of all, he gets the multiplier bump as he has been moved to the leadoff position for the A's and second, he has been red hot. He went 0 for 2 last night but prior to that had picked up hits in eight straight and 10 of his last 12 games with three doubles, three home runs and nine runs batted in. That consistency has lacked overall this season and with a price higher than Correa on FanDuel, he makes a nice GPP pivot play.

Third Base

Rafael DeversRafael Devers FD 3500 DK 3900
Opponent - HOU (Peacock) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.3 DK - 8.05

Devers was called up in late-July and has taken over as the regular third basemen for the AL East leading Red Sox. Through his first two months in the big leagues, he has not let up and carries an impressive .297/.355/.500 slash line into tonight and has shown some power with 10 home runs. The run production is down a bit but can be directly correlated to his spot in the order. This has most definitely helped keep his price in the sub $4K range which vaults him up the PTS/$ values on both sites.

Jedd GyorkoJedd Gyorko FD 3000 DK 3800
Opponent - CHC (Hendricks) Park - @STL
FD - 10.15 DK - 7.8

I don't normally get too excited about Gyorko but third base is a tough one nail down tonight and he comes at a nice value. It was just a month ago he left a game with a hamstring injury that appeared to be season-ending but lucky for him he missed just a few weeks. That is also great news for the Cardinals who are in a fight for their playoff lives and sit 3.5 games back in the wildcard race. Gyorko's price took a dip as he was placed down in the order when he returned to the lineup but has recently been moved back to the cleanup spot and he has delivered with back to back home runs on Monday/Tuesday. At this price, he is safe in all formats.

Outfield

Mike TroutMike Trout FD 4800 DK 5700
Opponent - CHW (Covey) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.96 DK - 10.12

As I write this, the Angels and White Sox are headed to extra innings and if the Angels can pull out the win they will still have a shot at the wildcard. The only issue is that they do not control their own destiny as they would be four games back of the Twins with four to play meaning they need a lot of help. The only thing they can do at this point is win out and hope for the best. There is no one I would rather depend on to help a team do this than Mike Trout. He is the best player in baseball and can do anything asked of him. He comes at a high cost but with a lack of elite pitching, it won't be hard to get him in with one or two other top hitters. Take advantage, at least in GPP formats.

*Update: Walk-off home run for Nick Delmonico ends the Angels playoff chances. I will still be using Trout in GPP formats*

Lorenzo CainLorenzo Cain FD 3500 DK 4500
Opponent - DET (Norris) Park - @KC
FD - 12.22 DK - 10.1

For the Royals, their playoff hopes have come and gone but that hasn't stopped Lorenzo Cain from finishing strong. He hasn't provided a ton of upside this season with just 15 home runs but has been consistent with hits in eight of his last 10 games and gets a nice matchup vs. Daniel Norris of the Tigers who has been a punching bag all season with his 5.59 ERA. His biggest issue has been the free passes(4.1 BB/9) and if that continues it should give Cain a few extra opportunities to drive in runs.

Andrew McCutchenAndrew McCutchen FD 3300 DK 4200
Opponent - WSH (Jackson) Park - @WSH
FD - 11.17 DK - 8.79
Starling MarteStarling Marte FD 4000 DK 4500
Opponent - WSH (Jackson) Park - @WSH
FD - 10.46 DK - 9.09

I close out the outfield picks with a pair of Pirates who have helped the team close out the season on a strong note. They come in having won four straight games and get an elite matchup tonight that should not be overlooked because they are not in contention for the postseason. They will face Edwin Jackson who started out hot with the Nats since coming over from the Orioles in July but has struggled mightily over the last month. He has given up 22 earned runs over his last four starts with multiple home runs in each game. That is great news for Marte who comes in with an eight-game hit streak that includes five multi-hit efforts and six straight double-digit FanDuel point performances. Mccutchen has been equally as hot with hits in four straight and 12 of his last 15 games. Both are safe in all formats tonight.

 

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9 Visitor Comments

  1. No picks from early game with Indians projected to score 6 runs?

  2. I am going to call this site: “Play All The Top Stars Everyday”! At least today you threw in a Ryon Healy pick and Jedd Gyroko. If I had to give my advive I would ask that you reccommend other “Value Plays” not named Trout, Altuve, ECT!

  3. No. Just covered the main slate today. I don’t like the early for DK in terms of pitchers but for FanDuel I would just play Carrasco and Indians bats for the most part.

  4. Sorry, you don’t like the picks today. We base the picks off what the system kicks out and it’s very tough in the final week with motivations and such. A lot of the main values in the final week don’t pop up until lineups are released. Joining us in chat prior to lineup lock is a great way to discuss the values that pop up through the day. Thanks for reading.

  5. Great work thanks for the FREE articles. All you people complaining are the worst. You guys always help! People are appreciative

  6. Thanks KP. I appreciate the feedback. Good luck tonight!

  7. The Indians aren’t favored at 6 runs. Santana held them to no runs his last start in clev. Indians at 4 runs . Also there’s always cheap sneak picks not just stars. Don’t be stupid

  8. Thanks for your articles. they are awesome and FREE. Appreciate your time.

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