Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

10/02/2017
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Playoffs - 10/3/17

Well we made through all 162 regular season baseball games. Seems like just yesterday the season started and now we are into October where the games really matter. Just the two wildcard games going down to start this off and it's al short slates from here on out.

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Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees

Pitchers

Luis SeverinoLuis Severino FD 10200 DK 11000
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @NYY
FD - 42.91 DK - 23.25
Severino comes in as the best pitcher over the two game-two day slate of play-in games for Tuesday and Wednesday. Severino’s coming off a a fantastic first full season in the majors, sporting a 3.04 xFIP and 10.71 K/9 rate while limiting the walks as compared to last year. It was a big leap forward and he’s one of the more formidable arms in the AL. He’s the biggest favorite (-240) of the two games and the Twins had a 22% K rate against righties this season. The ballpark doesn’t do Sev any real favors, but I suspect he’s the chalk play on this opening playoff slate of games.

Ervin SantanaErvin Santana FD 8300 DK 7000
Opponent - NYY (Severino) Park - @NYY
FD - 25.75 DK - 12.42
Severino is the best pitcher on the slate and Santana is the worst. Don’t be fooled by the 3.28 ERA this season. The xFIP was 4.77 and dude ran 40 points off his career BABIP numbers (.245 compared to .282). He K’s only seven batters per nine and is generally pitching to contact. That could be an issue in Yankee Stadium with the short porch in right and at least two guys in the middle of the lineup who will absolutely crush you if you don’t have better than average K stuff. The Yankees has the second highest implied run total and Santana will likely be the lowest owned arm.

Bats

Vegas has the Yankees with right around 4.6 runs going into this game with the only real issue in their lineup is the lack of big lefty power to face Santana. But they still have power between Aaron Judge who put up a transcendent 1.049 OPS and 52 HR rookie season and Gary Sanchez who ranks as the best offensive catcher in baseball (and it’s not all that close). It will be tough to roster both on both sites and with some of the other bats out there I’d likely choose Sanchez because of the positional scarcity and price. That being said, really all of the Yankees are in play considering the matchup and middle infielders Didi Gregorius and Starlin Castro could help round out cash lineups at their prices.

Because of the matchup, I’m generally fine fading all Twins on the short slate (at least for cash games). They have little in the way of middle of the order power after Dozier (and with the injury to Miguel Sano). Eddie Rosario has a little pop (27 HRs) but beyond that there isn’t all that much to get excited about in this matchup.

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Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Pitchers

Zack GreinkeZack Greinke FD 9500 DK 8800
Opponent - COL (Gray) Park - @ARI
FD - 38.37 DK - 20.4
Severino is the best pitcher on the opening slate but Greinke isn’t that far behind. He put up a solid season with a 3.34 xFIP thanks to a 9.5 K/9 rate (his best since 2011) and the ability to limit walks all season (2 per 9). These numbers are even more impressive considering half his games were played in Arizona (though he did get healthy doses of the Giants and Padres). For the first set of games I’m fine pairing Greinke and Severino in cash on DraftKings (he’s a crazy low $8800) and working bats in around them. Greinke is a -165 favorite with the Rockies coming in right around 3.7 implied runs.
He’s also the pivot on FanDuel if you are looking to roster one extra Yankee bat.

Jon GrayJon Gray FD 8600 DK 7700
Opponent - ARI (Greinke) Park - @ARI
FD - 27.44 DK - 14.02
Unbelievably, Gray was actually worse on the road this season in terms of ERA which is pretty damn amazing considering home is Coors. But the rest of the numbers show a guy who clearly liked to get on the team plane and head out of Colorado. On the road he struck out close to 10 batters per nine, walked only 2.38 and sported a 3.41 xFIP. He’s an underdog in this matchup but the definitely has K upside. The D-Back top of the order is tough with (though they never really figured out the two-hole) but Gray is clearly worth a GPP flyer simply because you could be getting a lot of K’s on the cheap.

Bats

The Diamondbacks have the highest implied team total on the slate with 4.78 thanks to the park and some strong bats at the top of the order. David Peralta sported an .825 OPS against righties this year and is reasonably priced on both sites. Paul Goldschmidt at $3800 is a steal on FanDuel. He rocked a .946 OPS this season and has the rare ability for a first baseman to steal bases. Ketel Marte is a value bat at SS if he’s hitting second (remember I said the team never figured out that slot). And finally I prefer Jake Lamb to Nolan Arenado for slightly cheaper and in a better matchup.

Meanwhile, there’s some appeal to the Rockies against Greinke. They are coming cheap across the board and are at least projected to put up some runs in a good hitter’s park. In general the cash game stacks favor the D-Backs and Yankees, but Carlos Gonzalez could be a cheap one off if he’s hitting in the top five spots in the order.

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