Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

10/27/2017
Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 10/27/17

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Point guard

Russell WestbrookRussell Westbrook FD - $11500 DK - $11400
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 55.26 DK - 58.74

Westbrook finally came through with a 66 fantasy point performance after not eclipsing 60 in the first 3. His price came down because of it and he's a bit more affordable that he will be for most of the year. He faces off with a fast-paced Pacers team that let him run as much as he wanted and fill up the stat sheet with a triple-double. He'll now head to Minnesota and take on the Timberwolves as a road underdog. The T-Wolves were average against PG's in 2016 but have been atrocious so far. Through 5 games, they've allowed 61.2 FP to PG per game. Westbrook will see the 35-37 minutes he's been seeing and look at Jeff Teague for the most part. Teague was known as a good defender in Indy, but it had more to do with the Pacers system as a whole. He's not bad, but Westbrook has nothing to worry about. I'd assume Wiggins will take a shot on Westbrook, but I'm not sure it'll be possible if Butler is out once again. Westbrook is cheaper than normal and he's a solid option in all formats. The T-Wolves have played fast and could run into some match-up issues with Jimmy Butler questionable. Westbrook is seeing a similar usage to last year and you have nothing to worry about here. As long as the game stays close, Westbrook will hit value.

Spencer DinwiddieSpencer Dinwiddie FD - $5000 DK - $5200
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 26.04 DK - 26.15

D'Angelo Russell is doubtful to play against the Knicks, so Spencer Dinwiddie will slide over and get the start. He saw 31 minutes against the Cavs and turned in 38 fantasy points. He has always been a solid FP per minute PG, so it's no surprise to see him produce when given the opportunity. He now sees an even better match-up with the Knicks. Ramon Sessions is a great play tonight, but he's not in there for defense. The Knicks have played pretty fast this year and Dinwiddie is more than happy to play that style like the Nets do with Russell at the helm. Even with the price coming up to $5k, Dinwiddie will smash value if given over 35 minutes. He does match-up a lot better with the Knicks than Cavs, so I wouldn't be surprised at all to see an uptick in minutes. The Cavs were sporting guys like J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert at PG, which forced the Nets to go bigger with LeVert. Dinwiddie is solid in both cash games and tournaments on a slate with a bunch of firepower.

Kemba WalkerKemba Walker FD - $8000 DK - $7800
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 37.1 DK - 38.12

With Chris Paul out, point guards can take advantage of the Rockets. Eric Gordon and James Harden are getting 95% of the minutes at PG and neither are any good at defense. They've allowed the 12th most FP to PG since Paul went out while facing the 2nd worst opposing PG's (PHI, DAL, MEM, SAC). Walker is the best PG these guys have faced with CP3 gone and it'll be a big test. Everyone knows Kemba is a force to be reckoned with when at home and that's against any defender. Against Harden and Eric Gordon, yes please. Walker has played like himself to start the year, but hasn't had one of his big 60 FP burgers. We all know it's coming sooner rather than later and this is his most favorable match-up yet. This game holds a high 213 over/under with just a -2.5 spread. When the Hornets are expected to score 105 points in a close game, Walker is someone you must pay attention to. He is the clear top option on the offense by as big of a margin as possible. Especially with Batum out. don't be hesitant to target him at a very fair $8k price tag.

Shooting Guard

Tim Hardaway Jr.Tim Hardaway Jr. FD - $4600 DK - $5000
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 31.06 DK - 31.87

If box score watching is your thing, you're not a fan of Tim Hardaway. You're also not very smart. Sorry, I assume nobody reading this is a box score watcher. Hardaway has taken nearly as many shots as Kristaps Porzingis, but is running as bad as a shooter of his caliber can run. Over the last 3 games, he's 9-for-37. Hardaway Jr. is a very good shooter, believe it or not. In 2016, he shot 45.5% from the field and 37% from the 3-point line. There's no logical reason to worry here. This match-up against the Nets is ideal as they play at a top 5 pace and have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to SG's over the last 2 seasons. They are a team that you want to target a ton in fantasy, with both guards and bigs. Hardaway will continue to shoot, because, well, shooters shoot. He's gone through countless dips like this and the same guys that are avoiding him tonight will be the guys who play him in a bad match-up because he shot well the few days beforehand. It does not matter. Hardaway is my favorite SG on the slate and I really hope his ownership stays down because of the weak FP totals in the last 3.

James HardenJames Harden FD - $11500 DK - $11000
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 53.91 DK - 56.32

Shooting guard is a bit weak, so I completely get going with James Harden as your superstar. The Hornets have played pretty slow over the past few years, but not here. They have played at the 9th fastest pace so far and it looks intentional. They've played a lot smaller and it looks like that's the new identity of the team. It fits the 213 O/U for sure. It was very rare to see a Hornets O/U over 210 over the last 2 years. Harden will see the defense of Jeremy Lamb, who's fine, but nowhere near the defender Nicolas Batum is. Vegas also has the Rockets at just -2.5 favorites, so it should be close throughout. Personally, Harden won't be my cash game superstar, but I'll have a lot of combos with him and some Hornets in tournaments. I think Harden will be low-owned, but who knows how he gets talked up around the industry. He's still seeing extra minutes on the court with CP3 gone and the slow rise in FP for Harden should continue here tonight. Shooting guard isn't very attractive tonight, so getting Harden gives you a huge advantage from the start. If he fits, don't hesitate.

Jeremy LambJeremy Lamb FD - $6400 DK - $5700
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 29.72 DK - 29.71

We'll  stay in Charlotte and look at the guy who should see extended minutes because of James Harden. With Nicolas Batum out, Lamb is needed for perimeter defense. MKG will also get some time on Harden, but he has some other guys to worry about. Lamb has played very well over his last 2 games and has shown that he will still see big minutes with Kidd-Gilchrist healthy. On offense, he will see the weakest perimeter defender on the court with the best on Kemba. That should let Lamb get to the basket plenty and take advantage of a smaller Rockets interior. He's a bit cheaper on DK, but FD has looser salaries, so he's affordable on both sites. I see him as a very fine cash game play with the upside to break it loose in tournaments. Pencil him in for 25 fantasy points as long as he doesn't see some weird foul trouble early. It's always a possibility with Harden.

Small forward

Kevin DurantKevin Durant FD - $10100 DK - $9400
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 53.35 DK - 53.26

My personal favorite superstar of the night comes in Kevin Durant. It has a lot to do with him being far cheaper than both Harden and Westbrook, while being projected for a similar number. Durant is the number 1 option in this offense and while they spread it around plenty, he seems to be getting his numbers far more easily and often than last season. This game between the Wizards and Warriors is currently sitting at a 230 over/under, which is easily the highest on the slate and a number you don't often see. Durant, like on most nights, is a huge mismatch for the Wizards. They have Kelly Oubre Jr. there, who's long enough, but that's about it. I think Otto Porter ends up on him for a lot longer and while he's better than Oubre, he still has never stopped KD. Durant averaged 61 FP against the Wiz in 2016 and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get to that number tonight. The Warriors have deferred to Durant all year long and I don't see that changing against the team he grew up rooting for and has a well-known connection too. Durant is a stud in all formats and a guy I'll have a ton of exposure to.

Wilson ChandlerWilson Chandler FD - $5100 DK - $4800
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 27.83 DK - 28.79

Small forward is probably the worst position of the night. If it wasn't for Kevin Durant, it would be absolutely brutal. With that being said, Wilson Chandler does look pretty solid here. He is a bit like Hardaway in the sense that he's an established scorer that has just run into a cold streak. He will undoubtedly pick things up and will likely average around 15-20 real-life points per game. For reference, he hasn't been in double-digits yet. Expect him to get there tonight in a match-up with the SF-friendly Hawks. Taurean Prince was known as a good defender, but Atlanta has allowed the 6th most FP (50.5) to small forwards on the season. Chandler is a guy that needs to score on the Nuggets squad and he will 100% get involved before we know. If he isn't getting discussed much around the industry, I may take a stand and play Chandler in 100% of tournaments. If those last 4 games came in the middle of the season, Chandler would be 30% owned here. I think he ends up around 10%, instead.

Shabazz MuhammadShabazz Muhammad FD - $3500 DK - $4000
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 23.09 DK - 23.67

Jimmy Butler is currently questionable with an upper respiratory infection, so Shabazz Muhammad may be in play once again. He saw 28 extremely disappointing minutes against a slow-paced Pacers team last time out. While the Pacers are a horrible match-up for Muhammad, it was a worrisome game to watch. Now with that being said, we have to consider the price. He really only needs to get you 18-20 for value and everything else is gravy. He should have no issues doing that against a Thunder team that fits his style of play much better. He'll see 30 minutes here if Butler is out and this game should be very high-scoring. Small forward is ugly, so using it to get some extreme value isn't a horrible idea. There's a lot of different ways to pay up tonight and you'll need to pay down somewhere.

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Power forward

Kristaps PorzingisKristaps Porzingis FD - $8900 DK - $8500
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 46.39 DK - 45.7

It's easy to love Porzingis tonight. To start, he's obviously turned a corner and playing the best basketball we've seen yet. Through the first 3 games, he's been over 46 fantasy points twice and had an absolutely brutal game against the Celtics. He now sees the absolute best match-up possible, facing off with the Nets. They allowed the most points to PF's in 2016 and are sitting at 3rd worst this season. The Nets play extremely fast and don't know much about defense. Individually, Kristaps will match-up with Trevor Booker and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. One is way too small and one is just not even a PF (RHJ). This is the best possible match-up for Porzingis and he's at a position without much depth. He's still below $9k on both sites and I don't think it lasts too long. This BKN - NY match-up is one that should stay close and be pretty high-scoring. Don't hesitate to target 4 or 5 guys from this game in both cash games and tournaments.

Paul MillsapPaul Millsap FD - $6600 DK - $6300
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 32.34 DK - 32.39

Millsap hasn't shown up just yet, but we know it's coming and this match-up against the Hawks is very nice. Millsap is also the cheapest he has been in years. It might be tough when you look at the box scores, but if you have watched the games, it shouldn't be too hard. Millsap has yet to gel with Jokic, but they have been close. The duo is very smart and they will have things figured out very soon. I wouldn't be surprised if it's in this match-up against the undersized Hawks interior. They sport a mix of John Collins and Taurean Prince at the 4, who will both struggle mightily with Millsap 1-0n-1. Millsap is also facing his former team in the Hawks, so he'll get his shots. At a depressed price tag, Millsap is a fantastic cash game option at a short-handed PF position.

The cheaper end of this position is atrocious. You can go with one of the Rockets in Ryan Anderson or Aminu as they will see over 35 minutes, or you can go with John Collins, who does just as much damage in 1/2 the minutes. Then there's Trevor Booker and RHJ on the Nets. The match-up against the Knicks isn't bad, but you never know how many minutes they will see. Let's hope some news comes out throughout the day and creates some PF value.

 

Center

Karl-Anthony TownsKarl-Anthony Towns FD - $9500 DK - $8600
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 42.89 DK - 44.96

Towns is the superstar to own at center. He's ranked behind the rest of the studs we've touched on, but not by much. This match-up with the Thunder doesn't seem great on the surface, but he dominated them last season with an average of 55 FP per game. Steven Adams is a great defensive center, but he can't deal with KAT and his outside game. This is also a pace-up game for the T-Wolves, which helps a ton. When you add the usage bump that he may see with Butler questionable, it makes sense why his projection is so high against a good defensive center. Center is somewhat deep tonight, but nobody else has anywhere near the upside. If you get to center and have the funds to spend, Towns is the guy to own. With an upside of 70 and a floor of 40, Towns is a great option in all formats.

Dwight HowardDwight Howard FD - $7900 DK - $7100
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 44.24 DK - 45.36

If you're looking to save some funds off of KAT, but are still looking for some real upside, Dwight Howard does the job. Howard will face his old team tonight in a game that we have targeted quite a bit. He's been over 35 fantasy points in each of the 4 games this season and has shown some consistency, which is rare. The Rockets have Clint Capela on the inside, who has played exceptionally this year. At least on offense. The Rockets have been average against centers so far, but who knows how legitimate that is after just a few games. Either way, Howard is bigger than Capela and is more than physical enough to battle inside. Howard is a double-double machine that is a fantastic guy to combo with Kemba Walker in tournaments. Center isn't the greatest position out there, so it's nice to get some safety with either of these 2 guys.

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17 Visitor Comments

  1. This article is BS so you mean to tell me the Minn has given up 61 Fp to PG’s where did you get that stat from because the most points by a PG. against them was Westbrook putting up 53fo against them a few games ago

    • That is per 48 minutes against opposing teams PG’s. Not just the starter.

  2. I got to defend DFSR on this one. Thanks to the optimizer I came in tied for first in a DK tournament last night. I only had to make one minor tweak of Cunningham for Muscala and I ended up with a 347.75

    • Sweet!

  3. I have been using the optimizer for the last week and cannot cash anywhere. I will rise it out for a month but so far I have had zero luck!

    • I guess this is the other end of the stick. Have you been making sure it’s the last update before lock? Feel free to ask any questions about the slate and I’ll do my best to help out.

    • Don’t play the opto straight out. Very seldom will you cash. Stick with solid core players, and work around them. Build YOUR OWN line-up with research and gut.

  4. The optimizer is not going to be correct every night but last night it certainly was. Nothing is always accurate.

  5. Aminu plays for the Blazers. Did you mean Mbah a Moute?

  6. The optimizer is 100% garbage!! It will never win you anything

  7. Anyone’s opinion on whether to build your team around Harden or Westbrook? Thinking of fading them both and going w big men, I think Jokic and Porzingis are going for 50 fp each tonight, so out of the 4 which 2 do you guys go with?

  8. I built around Westbrook. MIN is worst in the league vs OF. He should dominate. Triple double time!

  9. *PG not OF. Damn auto correct.

  10. The fact that OKC is on the road helps, but could they blow out Minnesota? Especially if Butler sits.. I feel like Harden may do just as good against Charlotte, very tough decision either way, what about choosing between Jokic and Porzingis if you had to?

  11. You guys say the same shit all the time on this site, stop going here if you don’t like the advice. What I do is set my lineups and then look at this page only to find recommendations for pretty much all the guys I want. I win money almost every night – only exceptions so far this year when hayward got hurt and when AD went down the other night. Yall need to up your game and quit bitchin.

  12. sounds like some people don’t know how to use an optimizer…

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