Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 10/30/17
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Welcome back! For some, Sundays are all about football. For others, it's another day of the NBA season. Either way, it's a solid 9-game slate with plenty of different targets at each position. We'll jump in with Kyle Lowry and the Raptors, on the road in Portland. We have a marquee match-up on our hands with Lowry and Lillard that should have electricity flowing from both sides. Lillard is the most expensive PG on the slate and Lowry is much better on defense. That puts us on Lowry, who's $2K cheaper with similar upside. He snapped with a triple-double against the Lakers last time out and gets a similar match-up here against a Blazers team that plays slightly faster. The Blazers allowed the 4th most FPPG to PG's in 2016 and will likely be worse with the addition of Nurkic, who isn't much of a defensive stopper under the rim. Lowry will have no problem initiating the offense and making plays all night long, as long as this game stays close. Vegas certainly thinks it will and it's a game you can target a ton in both cash games and tournaments. Lowry is your best bet at PG for 35 points and gives you a realistic 55 fantasy point upside. There's a lot of different ways to go at PG, so nobody should be too highly owned.
We don't get Jack at the minimum price he was a couple days ago, but he's still super cheap and he looks solidified in his role. He'll get the start once again against a small Nuggets backcourt that doesn't do much defensively. Jack has played 33 and 25 minutes as a starter so far and has a match-up here that he matches up great with. Jamal Murray is getting the bulk of minutes as PG for the Nuggets and he's more of a scorer than anything else. You need about 22-25 out of Jack for cash games and that should come with no issue, even in a blowout. His upside depends on the minutes, and if the game stays close, I suspect he'll see around 35. You need value on this slate and Jack is your one of your safest ways to get it.
We're seeing why Jrue Holiday was a point guard for his entire career. While he came into the year as an SG and only was forced to move because of the Rondo injury, he won't be going anywhere if he plays like this for the next month. He's been over 35 points in each of the last 4 games and now sees a great match-up with the injury-riddled Magic guards. Elfrid Payton will miss once again, so it'll be D.J. Augustin manning up Holiday for 30 of his 35 minutes. This game should remain close and both teams are willing to run. Holiday is comfortable as ever with this change to PG and is able to do whatever he wants on offense with 100% of attention on stopping Davis and Cousins. Teams are praying Holiday shoots, and so will I. He's fairly priced on both sites and makes sense in all formats.
Tim Hardaway Jr. FD - $4300 DK - $4900
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 24.77 DK - 25.44
We've been sitting on Hardaway Jr. for the entire season and waiting for him to return to his normal self. He was taking plenty of shots each game, but he was cold as could be. I guess it hit him all at once. He went NUTS against the Cavs, finishing with 34 points, 8 assists, and 4 rebounds. I'm guessing is 2-for-11 games are over, for now. He is way too cheap on both sites after the cold streak and will be a guy I have 100% of on this slate. It's not chasing points, either. Hardaway Jr. isn't a 50 fantasy point guy, but he's still priced way under value. Gary Harris and Will Barton have allowed the 9th most FPPG (47.3) to opposing shooting guards, but it has a lot to do with pace and the interior defense. Hardaway will be open plenty and you can be sure he'll be shooting after that last performance.
Klay Thompson FD - $6900 DK - $6800
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 32.2 DK - 33.81
You gotta love the match-up here. If you look at the Clippers roster, SG is a glaring defensive weakness. With Patrick Beverley at PG, SG's are already seeing a huge usage boost against the Clippers. You then factor in that Lou Williams and Austin Rivers are the 2 guys getting minutes. They can score, but I'd say defense is as foreign as passing. Thompson has the best individual match-up on the team and it isn't close. We're also only 5 games into the season, so they have a decent DvP ranking. I hope that somehow tells people that the Clippers can guard SG's. Until I see Austin Rivers or Lou Williams play good defense for more than 1 possession, I'll target every Sg I can against this squad. Thompson will be open all night long and he'll have the opportunity to have one of his big games if he can get hot. I have a lot of exposure to this game, so I'm leaning on it being close. If you think the Warriors go into L.A. and whoop the Clippers, it's fair to fade. I get it. It's just not the side I'll be on.
James Harden FD - $11000 DK - $11200
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 52.47 DK - 55.3
Harden is still at $11K on both sites, so you're still paying up for the 65 fantasy points. We can't use a 7-game sample size to judge a whole lot, but Harden hasn't been over 55 fantasy points. Without Chris Paul. It's impossible to say that's not at least worrisome. With that being said, he has been cold from the field and we may see things fall into place once the shot falls. He put up a season-high 54 fantasy points against this same 76ers team a few days ago, giving them a ton of trouble on the inside and in the passing lanes. He finished with 27 points and 13 assists, against a combo of J.J. Redick and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot. He diced them up and could have put up closer to 65 if he didn't turn it over more than usual. Harden is still costing you an arm and a leg, but it could very well plummet his ownership to sub 20%. If you can give me Harden under that number against a fast-paced 76ers team, I'll take it 100% of the time. Depending on how the industry is talking about Harden will be a big factor as to whether he's on my team. If popular, I'll slide to a Durant, Cousins, or Griffin. If under-owned, gimme some beard.
Kevin Durant FD - $10300 DK - $9800
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 52.66 DK - 52.69
As long as Kevin Durant can stay healthy, he will be an elite cash game and tournament play on most nights. Even in tough match-ups, he's doing what you wouldn't expect. He consistent and getting the bulk of the shots almost every night. It's a bit different from last season, when Curry and Thompson would shoot a lot more. They are still the splash brothers, but realize they have the 2nd best baketball player on Earth and it's probably a good idea to let him work. He sees a match-up with the Clippers tonight that is above average. There was a time when Danilo Gallinari was known as a good defender, but those days are far gone. He's now an average defender that struggled with screens and off-ball movement. AKA the Warriors offense. Durant will once again control this offense and dictate the game against the Clips. If it stays close, no number would surpsied me out of KD. If it's a blowout, the Warriors rarely get the numbers neccesary as they get spread out. Durant is my favorite SF and I currently have him in 100% of cash games and 75% of tournaments. That other 25% of tournament exposure are lineups without this game, hedging on a blowout.
Wilson Chandler FD - $4700 DK - $4800
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 23.66 DK - 24.17
Wilson Chandler finally hit 30 fantasy points against the Nets, but it didn't look good for most of the game. Chandler has been cold to start the season, but he's used to it and is already looking back to normal. Chandler is far too cheap for his role on this offense as a primary scorer. He doesn't get the ball nearly as much as he did a few years ago, but will still shoot 10 or more times in most contests. The Knicks will toss Doug McDermott and Hardaway Jr. on Chandler and neither will have a shot. He's not going to do much domination, but they certainly match-up poorly. Chandler has a much bigger frame than both and can score 1-on-1 from the perimeter if given the open floor. At his price, you don't even need any of that. All you need him to do is sit in the corner and shoot when open. Fortunately, his name isn't Paul Zipser, so we actually get to watch our guy dribble and interact with the hardwood. Chandler is simply too cheap and important to this offense to fade on a weak SF slate.
Blake Griffin FD - $9500 DK - $9300
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 46.28 DK - 47.35
Blake Griffin is the Clippers. He's never been able to say that. He's now extremely consistent and controlling the offense on a daily basis. He's dominated in most games and has figured out a way to get over 40 FP in each one. He now sees a very interesting match-up with the Warriors, who will either bring a blowout or a high-scoring, fantasy-filled affair. If it stays close like I expect, Griffin should see close to 40 minutes. They will be against Draymond Green, but I don't care. He's done well against him in the past and has no problem sharing the ball if he needs to. He can stuff the stat sheet in tons of different ways and will find a way to value even in most blowouts. He touches the ball on nearly every possession and his price is still under $10K, which I don't think lasts. All in all, Griffin is expensive, but still gives you a discount from the big dogs with similar upside.
Ryan Anderson FD - $5400 DK - $5100
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 25.57 DK - 27.06
The problem we typically have with Anderson is his inconsistency from game to game. You never really know if he's going to get minutes and if so, whether his shot will fall or not. The good news is that he's been over 35 minutes in 3 straight, which is huge.l It's hard to be too bad when you shoot as much as he does and play that many minutes. He sees a match-up against the 76ers who allowed the 2nd most 3's to PF and C's in 2016. Anderson will be open and it will just come down to whether or not he can hit the shots. If he gets hot, 40+ fantasy points out of Anderson isn't a huge deal. He can also go cold and ned with 11 fantasy points, because it's Ryan Anderson. He's all over my radar in all formats as this is a game I want to target more than any other. I'll be surprised if Anderson sees less than 25 fantasy points in 30 minutes of PT.
Dario Saric FD - $3700 DK - $4400
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 26.97 DK - 28.12
We'll stay in Houston and look back to the 6ers side of the ball. Dario Saric saw the start last game and ended up playing 29 minutes. He didn't play very well, but who cares. It was against a low-paced Mavs team that doesn't give up too much PF. Saric was a guy in the $8K's last year that was putting up 40+ fantasy points on a nightly basis. His role has quite obviously changed since then, but I do expect a few 30+performances in friendly match-ups. This is one of them. He will see a combo of Ryan Anderson and Luc Mbah a Moute on defense. Mbah a Moute is a good defender, but he has trouble down low. Saric should be able to put up 25-30 fantasy points with ease, which is a bit more than we need at his price. I get the box score looks bad, but if you can guarantee me 29-32 minutes from Dario Saric in this match-up, you have to expect value to be hit rather easily at $4k.
Clint Capela FD - $7500 DK - $6700
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 40.78 DK - 40.97
Clint Capela and the Rockets faced this same backcourt just a few days ago. He had his best game of the season, by far, going for 56 fantasy points in 31 minutes. He matched quite well with Joel Embiid and Amir Johnson. Capela is athletic enough to stay with those guys and big enough to bruise with them down low. He is also able to take advantage of the pitiful pick n' roll defense of the 6ers. If you're looking for a combo to target, going with Harden/Capela in both cash games and tournaments have merit. I like Capela a lot more if Embiid is playing, as he matches size better. Keep track of the news throughout the day and check back for the news article. As long as Embiid is in, Capela will sit over 28 minutes and dominate like he did last game.
Nikola Vucevic FD - $7800 DK - $7200
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 39.31 DK - 40.33
The Magic have surprised many and look like a real contender in the East. It could be all fraudulent, but I actually don't think so. Aaron Gordon looks to have taken his final step and Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier are solidified scorers. If this one stays close tonight, I suspect it'll be on the back on Nikola Vucevic. Facing off with Demarcus Cousins is no easy task, but it's more important to stay out of foul trouble than anything. Cousins is a talented defender, but doesn't put the effort in on 90% of plays. It's resulted in the Pelicans allowing the 5th most (47.3) fantasy points to opposing centers. Vucevic has slowed down since his torrid start, but will have plenty of games like those throughout the year. I'm not willing to bank 45, but a 35 point floor and 60 point upside is more than realistic in this match-up. I guess it is a bit risky as I could see a very likely scenario where Vic gets into foul trouble early and never finds a rhythm. There's a million different ways to go at center, and both of these guys will keep you in the mix.