featured Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

11/07/2017
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 10 - 11/8/17

After a blowout-riddled Week 9 that saw most of the 1PM EST games over well before the 3PM hour struck, we get a Week 10 with some interesting matchups. We'll have to wait on some team news to fully flesh out a couple of spots (most notably running back) but there's plenty of value heading into Sunday.

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL optimizer for FanDuel and DraftKings, our MLB Optimizer, and our new Player Lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

First time with NFL? Be sure to read our free MLB and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.

Quarterback

Matthew StaffordMatthew Stafford FD 8200 DK 6800
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 19.13 DK - 20.03
I typically keep our cash game plays to quarterbacks who can get out and run because time-after-time we’ve seen those guys have higher floors because they add a whole other component to their game. Stafford doesn’t fit the mold, though there are very few moderately-priced QBs on this slate with that kind of makeup. What Stafford has going for him is passing volume. He’s second in the NFL with 303 attempts thanks in large part to the Lions’ inability to get anything going on the ground. It’s a rubber meets the road situation against Cleveland who ranks 1st in DVOA against the run and 28th against the pass. Detroit has the second highest implied total on the main slate and like I said, it’s hard to imagine they are able to generate a ton of that scoring on the ground. Stafford is getting expensive but still ranks as one of the better cash game value quarterbacks going.

Eli ManningEli Manning FD 6700 DK 5100
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 16.48 DK - 17.53
Ok, don’t laugh. I know this is a weird place to start with cash game plays for a week, and honestly, I wish I could have listed the quarterback position last in this article because I think you are going to make some tough decisions at the position this week. Manning is somewhat in the mold of Stafford in that his team struggles to run the ball and he’s been forced to throw a ton this season. He’s averaging 37 attempts per game, has a couple of receivers in Shepard and Engram who he can “trust” and faces the garbage San Franciso D that’s allowing the most opponent plays per game. Manning is coming very cheap on both sites which allows for spending at the other positions. It’s mostly the price and matchup I’m interested in Manning.

If you can't tell I don't have a lot of conviction at the quarterback position this week. Guys like Brady and Brees feel overpriced considering the matchups and the main slate. I would consider Marcus Mariota in this spot though I'm a bit concerned with how little he's run since the injury three weeks ago. Ben Roethlisberger has a good matchup but he's really struggled this year. I do think you see the ownership trending toward the lower end of the salary tier this week almost for sure.

Running Back

Le'Veon BellLe'Veon Bell FD 9400 DK 9800
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 25.88 DK - 28.68
He’s back from the bye week and no player in the NFL needed a week off than this guys. Through 8 games he leads all running backs in total usage (rushing attempts + targets) with 239, a cool 22 more than the next closest guy in Ezekiel Elliott and 37 more than the guy in third (Gurley). Bell has played basically an entire game (or multiple games) more than every other RB in the NFL. It’s completely nuts and doesn’t stand to change anytime soon. The price really didn’t move after the bye week and the Steelers come in as huge road favorites (-10.5) against the Colts. Indy is coming off a loss to the Watson-less Texans and allowed 4.5 yards per carry to the Miller/ Foreman duo. Bell represents an entirely different animal. This is a pretty easy cash game play and pretty much the exact spot to spend up on the main slate this week. He’s one of the reasons going cheaper at QB and WR will make a lot of sense.

Leonard FournetteLeonard Fournette FD 8700 DK 8400
Opponent LAC
Proj Points FD - 20.25 DK - 21.74
Ezekiel ElliottEzekiel Elliott FD 8900 DK 8800
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 21.33 DK - 22.56
I’m putting these guys together this week in the “very good if they play” but kind of have f@#$ed up circumstances surrounding their ability to actually take the field. Elliott is waiting on a court decision on Thursday whether he’ll have to start serving his suspension (ATL -3 suggests to me Vegas thinks the suspension sticks this time around). Meanwhile Fournette was a surprise late scratch an hour before gametime on Sunday because of violation of team rules. While that’s likely a one-time thing, it does speak to there being some volatility (possibly) about character concerns creeping into play. Benching your star player right before the game starts basically never happens.

If it’s all systems go on both then the decision between them on both sites is a tough one. They rank #2 and #4 in the NFL in Usage per game and Fournette will now be coming off two straight weeks of “rest”. Jacksonville’s a -4 home favorite against a Charger team ranked 26th in DVOA against the run. It’s a fantastic spot for the Jags’ workhorse and he’s the cheapest of the “elite” group of RBs on FD and DK.

Elliott would get a 28th defensive DVOA Atlanta squad (27th against the run) in an indoor environment (which starts mattering as you get later in the season). The Cowboys haven’t taken their foot off the Zeke gas when he’s played. He ranks second in rushing yards (783) behind Kareem Hunt and is tied with Gurley for rushing TDs (7). The Zeke suspension news is among the biggest storylines of the week.

Christian McCaffreyChristian McCaffrey FD 6400 DK 6800
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 17.36 DK - 20.2
Despite showing no real ability (or possibly desire) to take over the lead running back spot in Carolina, McCaffrey finally out-snapped Jonathan Stewart last week 53/21 and finished with his best game of the season going 15/66/1/ on the ground and 6/28 through the air. Before last week, McCaffrey was averaging a paltry 2.6 yards per carry and couldn’t break a tackle to save his life. And yet, with the exit of Kelvin Benjamin and a slightly new-look Panther offense they turned it over to the rook and he delivered. It’s tough to imagine the timeshare going back the other way (at least in the short term). Carolina is a huge home favorite (-10) against the Dolphins which is exactly what we’re looking for in a cash running back. The game isn’t available on the DK Main Slate which is a shame considering Christian’s pass-catching abilities, but he’s a solid mid-tier option on FD even with the .5 PPR scoring.

Jordan HowardJordan Howard FD 7200 DK 6100
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 16.63 DK - 17.68
If I had told you at the beginning of the season the Bears would be a -4.5 favorite in Week 10 against the Packers then you’d have thought one thing: pray for Aaron Rodgers. The latter’s injury has tipped the scales in Green Bay and they are a team that can’t hold the ball on offense and have a suspect D. The Bears have shown the willingness to run Howard in just about any situation (losing, close game, losing, sometimes winning but not really) and he quietly has the 6th highest per game usage in the NFL (more than Hunt and Gordon). But because he’s on the Bears, he’s still coming at affordable prices on both sites. I think Howard makes a reasonable pivot off of the guys above if you are looking to save some at the position with a higher floor guy.

 

Wide Receiver

Antonio BrownAntonio Brown FD 9300 DK 9500
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 21.36 DK - 25.87
AB is just another reason it looks a little better going cheaper at quarterback this week. He, like Bell, is coming off the bye and the Pittsburgh offense is so concentrated around these two guys that stacking them in cash games appears a high floor, “safe” play. Indy hasn’t been horrendous against WR1s but Brown is a near-impossible matchup for just about any CB in the league. Indy won’t shadow cover him and he lines up more on the left side of the field where the Colts have been torched this season (27th in DVOA to WRs on that side). Brown leads the NFL with 94 targets and I’m happy to spend up this week considering some of the other WR matchups on the board.

Julio JonesJulio Jones FD 8000 DK 8000
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 16.76 DK - 20.13
We now have two of the last three weeks with Jones seeing 12 or more targets, a welcome sign considering the usage this season has been spotty at best (and scary low at some points). But if Atlanta and Matt Ryan are finally recommitting to their top WR then we are definitely buying low on the guy. His FanDuel price could be a chalk value considering the savings you get compared to Brown. Don’t confuse, he’s not anywhere close to Brown’s safety but this is a guy we’ve seen price (with performance to back it up) in the $9K range. Like I said with Zeke, this game’s being played indoors where, historically, Jones has been much better. A Zeke-less Dallas could cause the time of possession issues for the Cowboys and it will be interesting where a public WR like Jones ends up on the player prop board for Sunday.

Sterling ShepardSterling Shepard FD 5700 DK 5500
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 13.39 DK - 16.39
After missing some weeks with injury Shepard finally returned to a Giants receiving corps decimated by injury as the quasi “veteran” of the group (he’s played all of 22 games which, for this group, is practically a Hall of Fame career). Shepard was effective enough going 5/70 on 9 targets against a very tough Rams’ secondary (3rd in passing DVOA). It’s going to get a lot easier against the 49ers who not only allow the most opponent offensive plays but also sport a bottom third defense. They’ve allowed the 5th most passing yards and the 7th most yards per attempt. Shepard is a fantastic FanDuel value and certainly in the discussion on DK.

Marvin JonesMarvin Jones FD 6400 DK 6200
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 12.28 DK - 14.74
Since Week 5, only AB, Jarvis Landry and Amari Cooper have more receiving targets than Jones. In that time period, he’s also been the fourth highest scoring wide receiver. I know, I’m as surprised as you. It’s been a quiet changing of the target guard from Golden Tate to Jones in the short term. And while the former has had some injury issues, Jones has led the team in targets over the last two weeks even with Tate in the lineup. The Lions have had to pass a bunch because they don’t much have anything in the way of a running game which will be interesting to see against the woeful Browns. But even with all of the target share, Jones hasn’t seen much of a price increase. It definitely helped him that salaries were out already before his Monday night performance. He makes a solid mid-tier WR option.

Tight End

Evan EngramEvan Engram FD 7400 DK 6200
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 14.29 DK - 17.34
It’s kind of weird spot to pay up at tight end considering some of the value at the position, but man is it hard to argue with what Engram is doing for the Giants. He’s become somewhat of their de facto WR1 and has seen a whopping 29 targets in his last three games (following an inexplicable 0/0/0 line against the Chargers). The conversion rate isn’t terrific (52%) but there were also games against three top pass defenses in the Rams, Broncos, and Seahawks. The 49ers are garbage and we could see another big game from Engram here with increased conversion opportunities. His price has come up along the with he production though you could make a strong argument he hasn’t see the peak yet. He’s Eli’s Red Zone target and again profiles more as a WR than a TE.

Vernon DavisVernon Davis FD 5300 DK 4700
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 10.97 DK - 13.54
With the Redskins’ receiving corps extremely thin (they were without Crowder, Reed and Niles Paul) Davis stepped up in a big way against Seattle leading the team with 9 targets and finishing with a 6/72 line. The price crept up some on both sites, but not enough as long as Reed remains out and Davis stands to see anything north of 7 targets. Tight end is still very much a position where we can save and this week is no different. Davis as long as Reed is out of the lineup represents the perfect kind of tight end “punt” play.

Consider Delanie Walker

Defense

Pittsburgh Steelers
FD 4600 DK 3700

Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 10.63 DK - 10.63

Los Angeles Rams
FD 5400 DK 3600

Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 9.75 DK - 9.75

Chicago Bears
FD 4300 DK 3000

Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 8.12 DK - 8.12
 

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our NFL optimizer for FanDuel and DraftKings, our MLB Optimizer, and our new Player Lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

First time with NFL? Be sure to read our free MLB and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.

image sources

Post a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

 

FREE EBOOK

SECRETS TO CRUSHING DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL!
DON'T SET ANOTHER LINEUP BEFORE YOU READ THIS BOOK.



DOWNLOAD YOUR EBOOK NOW

Our free NBA and MLB eBooks, and picks to your inbox every day!

Your eBooks are on their way!