Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/11/17
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Stephen Curry FD - $9500 DK - $9500
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 47.48 DK - 49.37
It's starting to feel like the days of Steph Curry as a GPP only option may be a thing of the past. Even with the blowout factor, which is always a concern (the Dubs have won half of their games this season by a 15 point margin or greater) Steph has consistently paid 5X points per dollar value at the $9.5K tag he is sporting on both sites. The only times he has failed to pay value were in the season opening one point loss to Houston, and a slowed down blowout of the Heat in which both teams scored in just double digits. That is not a concern tonight. A hungry young Sixers squad comes into town playing the fourth fastest game in the NBA and this contest has the highest projection on the evening at 230. I get it if the 14 point spread gives you a moment of pause, but I'm expecting Philly to scrap to keep this one close well into the third giving Steph plenty of time to do what he does so well, and be a fantastic play in all formats.
T.J. McConnell FD - $4800 DK - $4800
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 23.98 DK - 23.64
Sticking in the same game we have the Sixers guard T.J. McConnell. Timothy John (as it appears on his birth certificate) has been an asset for Philly both in spot starts, and coming off the bench, particularly with the indefinite loss of Markelle Fultz, and more recently Jerryd Bayless. Some less than stellar shooting performances have driven the price on McConnell down dramatically (-$700 in less than a week on FanDuel) but the peripherals have remained persistent as have the minutes. McConnell has hovered around the 30 minute mark in seven straight games, and if he can start dropping some buckets it won't be long before McConnell is paying 6X or better at these prices once again. These are two of the five fastest paced teams in the NBA and the opportunities on both sides should be plentiful. Stacking these two teams at the point could be an excellent way to start out your lineups tonight.
Mike James FD - $5600 DK - $5000
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 27.56 DK - 27.62
Philly/Golden State may be the highest projected game of the evening, but just behind it is the one that sees Minnesota traveling into Phoenix. This one at least has a single digit spread, and will be paced nearly as fast. Eric Bledsoe's complaining about his situation in Phoenix led to him being benched and then finally being traded off, which thrust Mike James into the Phoenix starting five. Since joining the A squad James has seen his minute slowly tick upward, finally eclipsing the thirty mark on Wednesday against the Heat. The pricing has finally corrected, and is now at the point where there isn't much upside for James, but his solid shooting (double digit scoring in five of his last six) coupled with the steady distribution of assists keeps him a safe cash game play as long as he stays in this price point. He'll have little trouble hitting value this evening against Jeff Teague and a Minnesota defense allowing the most fantasy points in the game to the position.
Consider Jeff Teague against the Suns
Bradley Beal FD - $7900 DK - $7500
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 44.13 DK - 45.45
We have several games on the schedule for tonight that look like a lot of fun from a DFS perspective. We've already looked at two of them, another one is this tilt between the Wizards and the Hawks. Once again, we get a high projection from Vegas with two of the ten fastest paced teams in the game. With that you may ask why we didn't spotlight John Wall up at the point, and that is because for a significant discount, you can lock in Bradley Beal with about $2K in savings and get similar upside. Beal is projecting in our system at 5.5-6X PPD and is one of the top overall projections on the slate at any position and with good reason. Beal is a lock for 35 minutes at the very least, and has been shooting the rock exceptionally well down the stretch. In his last five games he is averaging 31.8 points per game. The Hawks are just terrible defensively, allowing 66.2 fantasy points to opposing shooting guards in the last five games. Kent Bazemore has no hope of covering Beal, and if Beal is able to find the hoop he could be in for a big night. I love Beal in cash, and don't mind him in tournaments either.
Eric Gordon FD - $6100 DK - $6300
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 32.46 DK - 34.77
With Chris Paul shelved since opening night, Eric Gordon has seen a ridiculous run to open the season for the Rockets. Since game two, Gordon has seen an average of 33.5 minutes per game and upwards of 39. During that stretch he has been scoring on a regular basis but the peripherals have been shaky at best. He's scored 20 points or better in seven of his last eight, while dishing out just 3.3 assists per game. The price has come down in the past couple of weeks to the point where I'm now quite comfortable buying in on gordon, and while I don't see him as a great tournament play I like the safety in cash games, though it is worth mentioning one of his best fantasy performances of the season came against this same Grizzlies squad on October 23rd. It probably won't be much longer before CP3 is healthy and Gordon returns to the sixth man role, so now is the time to get in while the minutes are high and the price is right.
Tim Hardaway Jr. FD - $6300 DK - $6400
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 32.02 DK - 33.38
We were banging the Tim Hardaway Jr drum pretty loud in the beginning of the season, touting him as an excellent shooter who was going to put it together and start dropping buckets, and after four duds, and endless "why THJ?!" comments in the chatroom, in game five the flood gates opened and THJ answered the call with a 34 point showing, and while he hasn't matched that season high, he has still managed to put together several solid fantasy performances since then, most recently stepping up for the injured Kristaps Porzingis on Wednesday in Orlando with his first double double of the season (26 points and a career high 11 boards). While the rebounds may not be something we can count on from junior on the regular, particularly if Zinger is back on the court, he is finally dropping baskets and scoring points which is all we ask from him. The price is at a season high on both sites which is pushing a level that gives me concern, and the Kings have been rather stingy at the two this season defensively, but as mid tiered options go, I'm content running with THJ, particularly if Porzingis sits again, though I don't think he does.
Consider Klay Thompson against the Sixers.
Jimmy Butler FD - $7200 DK - $7200
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 37.37 DK - 37.15
Jimmy Butler of the Timberwolves just isn't the same Jimmy Butler of the Bulls that we saw in the past, but fortunately we're not paying for 2016 Jimmy Butler. Last season Butler was regularly among the top tiered small forward plays, priced $9K or better, on many occasions cracking the $10K mark. This more passive Butler (I can't even bring myself to call him Buckets because he's just not scoring them) is a moderate, upper-mid tier priced play that has shown flashes of Jimmy Buckets, and despite the depressed scoring, is still filling out the stat sheet enough to give us sold production, and that's the key here. Butler is guaranteed to be on the court for at least 30 minutes a night, and plays a well rounded game, stuffing the stat sheet. Added bonus for Butler tonight with a matchup against the Suns who will speed up Minnesotas already fast pace of play, and allow 43 FP per game. If Butler turns up the aggressiveness as he claimed he is going to, we could see 2016 Jimmy Buckets at 2017 Jimmy Butlers price, and wouldn't that be great to have locked into our lineups?
Dillon Brooks FD - $4000 DK - $4000
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 22.63 DK - 22.71
If it's value you seek at the three then look to Dillon Brooks. The rookie from Oregon was inserted into the starting rotation for the Grizzlies last Saturday against the Clippers, and put together his finest fantasy performance of his young career Tuesday in Portland. There wasn't any one aspect to his game that stood out, but in 37 minutes Brooks ended the night with a 7/8/1/2/3 line which was good for just under 9X PPD. The price is now on the upswing, but if he is going to continue to run with the starters and see 30 minutes per game, then there is still plenty of ceiling and now is the time to get in on Brooks. I'll have exposure to Brooks in all formats, he'll be everywhere in my cash games, and I'll sprinkle him into one or two of my tournaments as well against a Rockets team that is relatively average at the position.
Evan Fournier FD - $6600 DK - $6700
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 33.97 DK - 34.42
It's still early, but Evan Fournier is looking at a career season in his fourth year with the Magic, and sixth overall. It's almost to the point where you fear a little regression is due, but so far he's shown no signs of slowing down. He's averaging over 20 points per game for the first time in his career, and is shooting 51.2% from the field and almost as well from beyond the arc. He even hit a season high five steals against the Knicks on Wednesday. Fournier has been the model of consistency this season, and one of the safest plays at the position, the only let down coming against a tough Boston defense that completely shut him down. Aside from that Fournier has proven to be an extremely safe play and an excellent cash game option.
Wesley Johnson FD - $4600 DK - $3900
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 24.93 DK - 23.81
Danilo Gallinari missed his second straight contest on Friday night, if he sits out tonight on the tail end of the back to back, then consider Wesley Johnson. Johnson saw 33 minutes for Galinari against the Spurs on Tuesday, and ended the night paying 5.5X PPD with 12 points, six rebounds, two assists, a block and a steal. As I write this he's not exactly on pace to duplicate that performance with five points and four rebounds at the half, but three turnovers killing his value, though there's still a whole half to go. If Gallinari is cleared to start then just stick with the guys above, but Johnson is a definite consideration if given another chance to run with the starters.
Kristaps Porzingis FD - $9700 DK - $9400
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 53.7 DK - 53.88
When looking for big money options, the system isn't feeling the $10K club tonight as point per dollar plays go. Of course, Russ, Brown, Boogie, and the brow all top the raw total point projections, but as bang for your buck goes, Kristaps Porzingis ranks above them all, projecting within 5 points of each and for a sub $10K price tag. This of course is if Zinger plays tonight. He was held back against the Magic on Wednesday, with inflammation in his elbow, but he did practice Friday and it seems safe to say he will take to the court tonight. With Carmelo Anthony out of town, Porzingis has taken control of the New York offense and is looking at a breakout season. This is an excellent spot for Porzingis against the sixth worst defensive matchup at the four, allowing 26.3 points and 12.9 rebounds per game. Kristaps only has two double doubles so far on the season, but number three could very well come tonight. If given a clean bill of health Zinger is a top cash game play.
Kyle Kuzma FD - $5800 DK - $6100
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 31.61 DK - 32.35
For value at the four we have a couple of different ways we can go. First let's take a moment to look at Kyle Kuzma. The Lakers are in Milwaukee tonight facing the Bucks. The game has a solid projection of 214 and the five point spread means there's little concern of anyone getting buzzed due to a blowout. Kuzma has started four straight games now, and while the results have varied, the minutes have remained steady. After peaking, the price on Kuzma has now turned downward, and is coming back down to earth. The FanDuel price in particular is appealing to me, though I'm not completely turning my nose up at Kuz on DK. Through four starts Kuzma is averaging 14.5 points and 10 boards per game. If he can maintain that type of production at these prices he'll continue to be a cash game staple. A tough matchup with Milwaukee coupled with Kuzmas lack of defensive numbers limits the potential upside in tournaments though.
Taj Gibson FD - $4600 DK - $4900
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 24.63 DK - 24.16
Taj Gibson is finally becoming fantasy relevant since coming over to Minnesota after a brief stint in OKC. Taj is fitting in nicely to the Timberwolves starting rotation alongside Karl-Anthony Towns. Gibson gives you an average of 29 minutes as a starter at the four with double double potential and defensive upside all for a sub $5K price tag. He has paid value in four straight games including a near 9X outing against Dallas last Saturday. Gibson still carries some risk as he tends to get shutdown easily at times, but against a Phoenix defense allowing 48.3 FP per game, I'm not too worried about that being the case tonight. I'm confident in Taj in cash and wouldn't be surprised to see him surpass the 5X mark in a large tournament.
Consider Paul Millsap against the Magic.
Alex Len FD - $4400 DK - $4900
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 30.48 DK - 31.31
Here at DFSR, we constantly preach the importance of having a short term memory when playing daily fantasy. An excellent example of this would be Alex Len. Len burnt a lot of people (myself included) when he posted six points, three rebounds and four turnovers against the Heat on Wednesday, and some people added him to their "never again" list. Not us. We had Len locked and loaded into our optimal lineups last night as Phoenix hosted the Magic and Len more than made up for Wednesdays dud with a 21 point, 13 rebounds one assist, two block showing good for 9X PPD. Len was battling foul trouble all night in that game against the Heat, and despite that terrible showing, he's a solid play starting for the injured Tyson Chandler, as last night proved. Tonight he'll spend the night tied up with Karl Anthony-Towns who has one of the poorest defensive ratings at the position, despite the fact that the Wolves are the tenth ranked defensive matchup for opposing centers allowing just 37.5 fantasy points. However for the price, I'll still take a healthy helping of Len in my lineups.
Marcin Gortat FD - $5200 DK - $5400
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 28.28 DK - 29.8
We're going close out with one more trip to Washington for the Wizards tilt with the Hawks and look to Marcin Gortat. The Wizards have been struggling, losing five of their last seven games heading into Thursday night's tilt with the Lakers. They won that game easily, though Gortat was largely uninvolved in his 29 minutes. The Lakers are tough on opposing centers with the addition of Brook Lopez, so that's understandable. Tonight the Hawks present a much more attractive matchup for Gortat, as they allow 17 points and 14.9 rebounds to opposing bigs, which accounts for their 47.8 FP allowed per game, which is fifth most in the NBA. As we discussed earlier, this game has a high projection and despite the 11 point spread Gortat should be good for 25-30 minutes of court time. I feel safer with Len, but if you need a lower owned option in a solid matchup then Gortat is your guy.
Consider Rudy Gobert against the Nets
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- Stephen Curry: (AP Photo/Ben Margot)