Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/14/17
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Kyle Lowry FD - $7700 DK - $7700
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 33.87 DK - 35.54
It's Tuesday in the NBA. I get it, the association is trying to reduce the number of back to backs, but these micro slates are starting to wear a little thin. Tonight we get three games to build from, and we head in to the night with the uncertainty of Kyrie Irving's status for Boston. Irving is currently listed as questionable, and I for one feel he will play, but if he doesn't then we look to Kyle Lowry as our top money play at point guard. Lowry got off to a rough start to the season, erratic minutes, several single digit scoring performances, but over the past week things seem to be coming together. Following a game against the Wizards where he was ejected in the second quarter after just twelve minutes, Lowry has put together three straight games averaging 32 minutes, 18 points, and 6.6 assists. He's only paid 5X or better at these prices three times this season, but pickings are slim, especially if we're without Kyrie, and Lowry will be facing a Houston team that ranks among the bottom defensively at the point.
Spencer Dinwiddie FD - $5800 DK - $4800
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 27 DK - 26.89
While we're unsure of Irving's status, we do have confirmation that D'angelo Russell is out for several weeks with a knee injury. Dinwiddie missed Saturday's game against the Jazz with a hamstring strain, but he'll fight through it tonight to step in and lead the starters of the Brooklyn squad at the point. The site's were quick to correct on Dinwiddie's price, particularly Fanduel, but there is still plenty of upside to be had at these prices. For a player shooting just 38.4% from the field this doesn't fill me with the greatest of confidence, but given the short slate, the matchup, and the opportunity Dinwiddie will see at a very reasonable price, I'm willing to take the shot.
If Kyrie is in fact out for another game, then consider Terry Rozier.
James Harden FD - $12500 DK - $12300
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 54.87 DK - 57.7
This one pretty much writes itself. James Harden may not be 100% owned, but he'll be the chalk of the night for sure. The beard is the only player on the night who is priced above $10K and has the highest total raw point projection of the evening. Cashing tonight will basically come down to locking in Harden and then choosing the right plays to build around him. Harden has been on a tear as of late, in the past four games he has posted season highs in points (56 Vs UTA), rebounds (11 Vs CLE), and most recently assists (15 Vs IND). The 6.5xPPD Game against the Cavs was his best fantasy performance of the season, with the Utah game not far off. Tonight's game against the Raptors has a 219 O/U which is the highest of the two projections we have, (Vegas seems to be waiting on Irving before dropping a line on the BOS/BKN affair) and the Raptors present an average defensive matchup. I'll have Harden in every last cash lineup, though if you want to get creative in tournaments, you could go contrarian.
DeMar DeRozan FD - $8100 DK - $8000
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 38.18 DK - 38.69
Sticking with the Toronto/Houston game, we have DeMar DeRozan. While Kyle Lowry has gotten off to a slow start this season, DeRozan has been picking up the slack for the Raptors back court. It was an ugly affair in Boston for DD on Saturday, he scored 24 points with just three boards and four assists in 35 minutes, but that game aside he has had a solid start to the 2017 season. He has three 30 point outings already, two of them coming in the past five games. These two teams are evenly matched defensively at the position, and play at a similar pace. If you did decide to fade Harden, DeRozan would be the smart alternative, though a game stack feels quite appealing as well.
Eric Gordon FD - $6300 DK - $6600
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 31.01 DK - 33.08
Eric Gordon has been solid stepping in as the starting point guard for the Rockets while Chris Paul has been sidelined since game two with a knee injury. It seems Paul is inching closer to a return so we need to take advantage of Gordon while we can. Gordon has been a consistent scorer for Houston, as Harden usually draws double coverage leaving Gordon open to drop buckets. Gordon has been shooting 42% from the field and has scored over 20 points in five straight games. Toronto can be particularly tough on opposing guards, but with the one two punch of Gordon and Harden they'll have hard time shutting down the Houston front court. Gordon is a solid cash play.
Jaylen Brown FD - $6200 DK - $6700
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 29.89 DK - 30.3
Jaylen Brown stepped up his shooting game with Kyrie off the court during the Celtics game against the Raptors on Sunday scoring 18 points in 32 minutes. Its been a nice start to the sophomore campaign for the Boston small forward who has been scoring 43.5% from the field and seen a significant boost in his rebounds this season, the 6.9 boards he is averaging is more than double what he notched last season. This will be a pace up game for the Celtics, who tend to play it tight, going into Brooklyn to play the fastest team in the game and defensively are allowing 24.2 points and 10.2 rebounds per game to opposing small forwards. Brown is my top play at the position tonight.
After Brown, thing's get a little dicey at the small forward position. Harrison Barnes is significantly cheaper than Brown on DraftKings, and both project for similar point totals, so he makes a nice pivot there. On FanDuel where you need two small forwards, Kyle Anderson faces a Dallas team that is near as bad as Brooklyn at defending the three, though that game has a much lower projected total and will play at a snails pace. After those two the only other player that really stands out is Trevor Ariza in a tough matchup against the Toronto front court.
Jayson Tatum FD - $5100 DK - $6200
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 28.68 DK - 29.09
Jayson Tatum has quietly been one of the most promising rookies of the 2017 campaign. He has impressed for the Celtics as a starting power forward, and has stepped up when needed to fill the voids left open by recent injuries to Al Horford and Kyrie Irving. Tatum can be counted on for 25- 30 minutes per game, and has seen upwards of 36. He's been playing through a sore ankle which may have hindered his performance the last couple of games, but as long as it's nothing too serious, and it doesn't seem to be, he should be just fine in tonight's game against a Nets team allowing 20.4 points and 11.6 baords per game to opposing power forwards. Tatum comes in with the highest PPD projection of any player on the slate and is an excellent play in all formats.
Ryan Anderson FD - $4600 DK - $4700
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 22.69 DK - 24.06
It gets really tough talking up some of these plays, but on night's like this we're given so few options, and we have to take what we're given, and tonight we're given Ryan Anderson. Anderson started out the season pretty solid, scoring double digit points in nine of the first ten games with 5.7 boards per game, but in the past week he has gone completely cold. Despite the drop off Anderson still manages 31.3 minutes per game, and the Raptors are weakest at the four allowing 24.9 points and 12.9 boards per game to opposing power forwards. This is a perfect chance for Anderson to turn it on again, and the system is banking on that happening. It's not my favorite play of the day, but I can understand the projection.
Jonas Valanciunas FD - $5300 DK - $4900
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 26.88 DK - 26.91
There are actually a few different ways to go at center tonight, several plays stand out as solid options, so I'll give you two, one at the top, and one value play. Our value play comes in the form of Jonas Valanciunas. The Raptors big man in his sixth season missed four games early on with an ankle injury, and hasn't been seeing a ton of minutes since returning to action. He was largely uninvolved in the Raptors loss to the Celtics on Sunday, though he flashed a glimpse of his old self in the two games prior against the Bulls and the Pelicans. In those two games he posted 28 points and 23 boards in 51 minutes total. The Rockets aren't an easy target defensively, but they aren't one to necessarily avoid either, particularly on a night such as this. JV is a bit of a risky proposition, but if you can't afford to spend up at center, then he's a good way to go.
Al Horford FD - $7800 DK - $7600
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 37.49 DK - 37.68
If you can afford to spend up at center however, I encourage you to do so, especially when paying up means a mere $7K for Al Horford. Horford returned to the boards following a two game absence with a concussion on Sunday for the Celtics tilt with the Raptors and picked up right where he left off. He was near perfect shooting (8-9 from the field, 1-1 from downtown, and 8-9 from the stripe) though he was barely a factor in the glass with only three boards. Prior to the two game layoff Horford had posted double doubles in three of five games and tonight he'll face a Nets team allowing 2.5 points and 15.5 boards to the position. It seems safer to say that Horford is all clear and will see his full compliment of minutes (32 per game) and is about as safe a play as you will find on a very questionable slate.