Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 15 - 12/17/17

Last week was one of the more interesting Sundays we've had in the NFL this season. Some games went right down the wire, two ending with overtime touchdowns. We had the Snow Game which was the only real way to make a Colts-Bills affair interesting. An injury to Carson Wentz demoralizes an entire fanbase. Big Ben throws 66 passes in a game. The Patriots lose to the Dolphins. And so much more. Let's see if Week 15 can live up.

Note: this week the NFL schedule gets funky with a Thursday game, two Saturday games and Sunday doesn't include the night game on the main slate. These picks are strictly focused on the Sunday afternoon games.

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Quarterback

Russell Wilson FD 8400 DK 7300
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 21.89 DK - 22.62
With Carson Wentz now done for the year, Wilson is the runaway leader in the clubhouse for overall quarterback fantasy scoring. On the season, he’s put up 301 fantasy points with the next closest active quarterback being Alex Smith at 259. That’s basically two good games between the top spot and number two. The chasm is wide and isn’t likely to get smaller. Even with Mike Davis in the mix at running back (he’s not a complete waste of space like some of the other guys the Seahawks have fielded this season) Wilson is still the number 1, 2 and 3 fantasy option for this offense. He struggled last week, but it was against a superior Jaguars’ defense and Russ was still able to throw for three touchdowns and run for 50 yards. He’ll face the Rams this week (no slouch on defense with a #4 DVOA rating) but Vegas sees the game as relatively high-scoring (48 o/u) and close (SEA -2). If Wilson can hit value against the Jags then he’s coming close to matchup proof on these prices.

Cam Newton FD 7900 DK 6400
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 20.73 DK - 21.54
He’s getting expensive on FanDuel but still remains something of a bargain on DraftKings going into a matchup against the Packers who’ve struggled all year against the pass and just gave up a 3 TD day to Deshone-freaking-Kizer. There’s a lot to like with Cam here if you can look past the season-long issues with accuracy. The good news is he’s actually completing more passes this season than last, but he’s still only at 60%. He’s able to keep his floor high thanks in large part to his return to scrambling out of the pocket. He leads all quarterbacks with 585 rushing yards (100 more than Wilson at #2) and is tied with five rushing touchdowns. He’s rushed for 50 or more yards in six of the last eight games and should be able to do work against this Packers’ secondary and pass rush. From a safety perspective, I much prefer Wilson, but the DraftKings’ price difference does make it closer.

Consider Nick Foles coming very cheap in the backup role against the Giants. The Eagles do have weapons and he could be serviceable. I also like Kirk Cousins in a bounce-back game.

Running Back

Le'Veon Bell FD 9400 DK 9300
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 22.64 DK - 25.62
At this point, there really isn’t a game script that negatively effects Bell. At the very worst, if the Steelers are playing catch up then he’s actively involved in the passing game and sees around 22 or so looks. That’s the worst case. The best case is they just lean on him heavily in grinding out the clock and now he’s looking at 30+ touches. On the season, he’s averaging 22 carries and 7 targets a game. By comparison, the next closest active player (sorry Zeke) is Todd Gurley at 23.6 looks per game. Bell sees roughly 22% more opportunity than the second most used player in the NFL. And yet when we look at players costing 22% less than him on FanDuel we have to go all the way down to the 7th slot in Jamal Williams at $7300. Simply put: Bell is still a relative value even at these prices. In fact, he’s something like a bargain. This game against the Patriots has the highest over/ under at 53.5 and it would be tough to stomach a Bell fade here.

Kenyan Drake FD 6500 DK 5800
Opponent BUF
Proj Points FD - 15.92 DK - 17.55
We can thank the NFL scheduling Gods for throwing the Miami-New England on Monday night and therefore locking in Drake’s price on FanDuel and DraftKings before he went HAM all over the Pats. The ‘Fins appear clear on their plans with Drake since Damien Williams went down. He’s the lead back with no competition. Over the last two weeks, he’s averaged 24 carries and 4 receptions which would put him in the upper tier of running back usage if taken over the course of the year (even allowing for significant regression). He’s also been incredibly effective averaging close to five yards per carry this year and is now facing a Bills’ team ranked 29th in DVOA against the rush. Expect him to be a popular play on both sites considering we have an extra week of information without the requisite price hike.

Kerwynn Williams FD 5500 DK 4000
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 11.79 DK - 12.54
With Adrian Peterson on the shelf, Williams has taken over the lead back duties in Arizona and been effective with the opportunity. Over the last two weeks, he’s averaging 18/85 good for 4.7 yards per carry against the Titans and Rams. He doesn’t do much in the passing game but is priced so far in the lower tier that I think we can still consider him on DraftKings on the rushing volume alone. Washington owns a very average run defense and even as an underdog I’m moderately encouraged by Williams at these price points.

Strongly consider Leonard Fournette as a big -11.5 home favorite against the Texans.

 

Wide Receiver

Antonio Brown FD 9300 DK 9100
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 20.57 DK - 24.64
Much like his teammate Bell, Brown is running laps around most of the rest of the WR crowd this season. Only DeAndre Hopkins is anywhere close in terms of targets. Brown has 160 on the season, Hopkins 155 and the next closest is Jarvis Landry at 131. That’s basically two more high volume receiving games than the next best receivers in the game. It’s pretty insane. He’s on pace to finish in the top 10 of all time receptions in a season (Brown is already number 2 and 4 on that list). This appears the perfect week to stack Bell and Brown together in cash games (along with Wilson possibly) and just make the money work everywhere else. New England has looked “better” on defense over the last month, but their competition has been the Dolphins twice (and they looked bad on Monday), Raiders (awful), Bills (awful) and Denver (awful). In what’s shaping up as a shootout, locking in these two Steelers sure does feel like the right way to go.

Adam Thielen FD 7600 DK 7600
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 15.79 DK - 19.26
Thielen’s seen nine or more targets in seven of the last eight weeks and draws another plus matchup this week against a Bengals’ coming in below average against the pass. They're particularly weak in the slot and left side coverage where Thielen runs a vast majority of his routes. Since Stefon Diggs’ original injury after Week 5, when Thielen basically took over primary WR1 responsibilities, the latter is fifth in the NFL in targets. He’s become an elite WR1 in the league and Diggs’ return hasn’t cut into Thielen’s target share at all. And consider this: Among the RZ target leaders this season, Thielen’s in the top ten with (by far) the lowest conversion rate at 29%. No one else in that group is below 40%. One could read this as Thielen still having major touchdown upside in this price range. He’s a little pricey on DraftKings even with the full PPR, but I see him as an excellent value on FanDuel.

Marquise Goodwin FD 6600 DK 6000
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 13.54 DK - 16.15
Think Goodwin likes having Jimmy Garoppolo under center? Over the last two weeks with Jimmy G. at the helm Goodwin’s seen a team-high 20 targets and converted them to for a combined 14/205. His price still doesn’t clearly reflect the new opportunity and greatly improved quarterback play for the 49ers. This week they’ll face a Tennessee team with a plus secondary, in terms of personnel but ranking 25th in DVOA against the pass. It’s sometimes tough to quickly evaluate the short-term impact of a new quarterback in a system, but in this case, I’m erring on the side of Goodwin continuing to improve.

Consider Jarvis Landry

Tight End

Garrett Celek FD 5100 DK 2700
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 6.84 DK - 8.09
Austin Seferian-Jenkins FD 5500 DK 2900
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 6.73 DK - 8.63
Charles Clay FD 5300 DK 3000
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 6.81 DK - 8.52
There are a lot of reasons to completely punt on tight end on this main slate. For starters, it’s a good way to start paying all the way up for much for fantasy viable guys in the upper tiers at other positions. The relatively “safe” tight ends (of which there are few) are either too expensive or playing on other slates. That leaves you taking a dartboard approach with this group and hoping to get there in favorable matchups. Here are some loose cases for rostering guys in this tier.

Celek has out-snapped George Kittle 2:1 in each of the last two weeks with Garoppollo and looks to be the preferred TE option there in the passing game.

Seferian-Jenkins hasn’t seen much production over the last couple of weeks (he did have a TD called back in Week 13) but will get a QB change in Bryce Petty which might not be the worst thing in the world.

Clay will get Tyrod Taylor back under center in a game unlikely to be doused with huge amounts of snow. So he has that going for him. He should see somewhere around 4-5 targets against a Dolphins’ team ranked 28th against tight ends this season.

Defense

Jacksonville Jaguars FD 5900 DK 4500
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 10.87 DK - 10.87

Baltimore Ravens FD 5000 DK 3800
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 8.99 DK - 8.99

Minnesota Vikings FD 4800 DK 3500
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 8.80 DK - 8.80

 

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