Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 12/14/17

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Point guard

Yogi Ferrell FD - $4700 DK - $4600
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 20.82 DK - 21.54

Yogi Ferrell is the guy we want with Dennis Smith Jr. out. He's already been announced out for the next 2 games and it should allow Yogi Ferrel to get over 30 minutes again. He's been well over 30 minutes in 3 of his last 4 games and put up FP totals of 31, 22, and 23. He's still priced under $5k and has to be considered in all formats. Point Guard is MUCH thinner than most nights and Ferrell should be popular because of it. The Warriors are without Curry, so it'll be a combo of Livingston, Cook, and McCaw that draw time on Yogi. They've ranked 8th worst against PG's since Curry went out, though the sample size is admittedly small. Ferrell is a guy I'll likely have across the board as a top value option on a small slate.

Reggie Jackson FD - $5700 DK - $5800
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 27.29 DK - 28.42

Hold the phone! The NBA has finally given us a solid Thursday slate. After works of working with some very ugly Thursday schedules, we have a 5-gamer with some intriguing games. We'll kick it off with Reggie Jackson and the Pistons, who will go on the road and face-off with the Atlanta Hawks. Dennis Schroder is one of the worst individual defenders in the league and the Hawks are lacking paint defense with Dedmon out. Jackson has definitely been a bit inconsistent with minutes, but I have a strong suspicion he sees over 32 tonight. When given those minutes, he is extremely consistent and one of the most effective ECF PG's. He will be in there down the stretch and this game is expected to stay close with a -3.5 spread and 209 total. His price is below $6k on both sites and only needs to get you 25-30 in all formats. Jackson is never easy to roster, but this is a strong match-up and I haven't rostered Jackson all season long. This will be the first time and I'll have close to 100%.

Lonzo Ball FD - $7500 DK - $7000
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 31.54 DK - 31.76

It's actually hilarious to watch guys try to critique the game of Lonzo Ball. Go ahead and check out what your favorite NBA legend was doing at 19. Twist the facts however you want, but his numbers are impressive and a 3-pt shot is the last thing I care about out of a guy who's been a 3-pt specialist his entire career. It's been a lot more impressive to see his passing skills and rebounding instincts, which will not come with age. His shot is already picking up a bit and I wouldn't be surprised to see Lonzo start pouring in 15-20 a game. I can hate as LaVar Ball as much as the next guy, but let's not force this guy into a bubble because of it. The peripherals are obviously there and gives him a solid floor in cash games. The triple-double upside is there any night and especially against the Cavs, who don't have a PG. it'll be Calderon and J.R. On Ball for most of the night and maybe LeBron if he gets hot (plenty of FP already if that happens). Point guard is ugly and Lonzo gives you exposure to a game that we want a lot of. He's also cheap enough on both sites to not worry about.

Shooting Guard

Avery Bradley FD - $5100 DK - $5100
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 24.88 DK - 25.53

Shooting guard isn't a position you're going to like very much. You know that when we're starting off with Avery Bradley. Bradley has been pitiful this season, but has picked it up as of late and has been over 20 fantasy points on most nights. We know this is a guy that could be putting up 30+, but just doesn't have the proper role on the offense. At $5100 on both sites, Bradley will need to get you around 25. Against a Hawks squad that struggles against the perimeter, it shouldn't be much of an issue. Van Gundy should have him out there for 30+ minutes against Bazemore/Prince and we know Vegas expects this one to stay very close. Bradley is just a very good player and it's tough to ignore him at $5k. At a position like shooting guard that is lacking just about everything you want out of a position, he is a fine way to go in all formats. if you find a better option somewhere, let me know.

Andrew Wiggins FD - $6500 DK - $6200
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 28.52 DK - 28.79

I don't care if you think Wiggins is the 4th option on this offense or that he flat out sucks, this is WAY too cheap. He is a streaky shooter and went cold for a few games, depressing his price tag to criminal numbers. He bounced back with a typical 30+ FP performance last game and showed what to expect on most nights. We've targeted shooting guards against the Kings for years now and it's actually the best they've been in a while at 21st worst. Wiggins will see a combo of Bogdanovic and Hield, who have shooting on their mind. Expect Wiggins to have another normal game and blow that silly price tag out of the water. Once he has just a good game, he's going to be close to a must. When he goes off like he certainly will for 50+ in the near future, he will be a must in every format as there are plenty of smart folks who are going to play Wiggins every single day until he goes up. He's simply not a $6k player. Shooting guard is butt-ugly and I see no reason to run away from Wiggins. 

Kyle Korver FD - $3700 DK - $3800
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 18.44 DK - 19.41
J.R. Smith FD - $4300 DK - $4100
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 19.34 DK - 19.97

There typically isn't a whole lot of value at shooting guard and this slate is no different than most. Dwyane Wade was a late scratch 2 nights ago and it opened up some minutes for Korver(23) and J.R(25). If Wade is out once again, both are fine options against a Lakers squad that is going to allow them open 3's. This is a game we've already touched on and will get to plenty more as we move along. The spread is less than 10 and an over/under of 220 is always appealing. The Lakers defense is poor and we know these guys are both going to see over 20 minutes. If either gets hot, there's always the upside for 30 fantasy points. Neither of these guys are high-end value plays, but there isn't much injury news to go off yet and these two guys deserve some consideration at a position that lacks depth. If you made me pick, I would go with Korver, slightly.

Small forward

Harrison Barnes FD - $6600 DK - $6700
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 32.47 DK - 33.23

Big surprise here, but we have another position that isn't all that fun. Yes, LeBron and Durant are at the top, but they're expensive and you'll have to make a tough decision between the 2. Harrison Barnes is a guy you can always roster in cash games and draws some tournament appeal tonight against his former team in the Warriors. Barnes is the number 1 option on this offense and sees the ball in his hands a little more with DSJ out. The Warriors are obviously full of strong defenders, but rank in the bottom 10 against most positions. Why? PACE. They play at a top 7 speed in the league and allow a ton of peripherals. Barnes is as safe as they come for 25 fantasy points, even in a blowout. Now if the game stays close, Barnes will have to have a huge game. His price is fair across the industry and will only need you around 30. As the 1 and 2 option on an offense that will see 10-15 extra possessions, sign me up.

Courtney Lee FD - $5300 DK - $5500
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 25.87 DK - 25.85

It feels very weird to play Courtney Lee, let alone recommend him. Since Tim Hardaway Jr. went out with an injury, Lee has been one of the main guys to take over. His usage jumps from 17 to 20 with Hardaway out and has been at 23% over the last few games. The minutes have been jumping around a bit, but he's been extremely effective when given over 30. This match-up with the Nets is phenomenal as they rank 4th worst against SF's in the entire league. DeMarre Carroll is a fine defender, but he has no help behind him and has been disappointing on his own. I think most people just throw Porzingis in there and move on. 2 or 3 other guys on the Knicks are going to come through with Value and Lee is my favorite pick of the bunch. He's cheap on both sites and only needs to get you 25 in cash games. As long as it stays close, he'll be in there for 30+ minutes with a ceiling of 40.

LeBron James FD - $12600 DK - $11900
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 56.17 DK - 57.25

Is this a cop-out? Sure. But how can I exclusively tell you guys to play 1 of these guys when I'm afraid as hell to do the same. It might be a wise move to pick 1 and jump on the train, but I think the difference in these guys is minuscule. For LeBron, he gets a top 5 match-up against a Lakers squad with bad defense absolutely no interior. The game is expected to stay within 9 points and has a higher O/U than GS at 220. LeBron has simply been insane this season and can be locked in for another 55+ fantasy points. As for Durant, it's more of the same. Draymond Green is doubtful, so he'll be in line to see even more shots than he would with just Curry missing. The Maverick stink and he will be able to do what he wants. This game has a slightly lower total, but is still expected to stay relatively close with a 10.5 spread. If you forced me to choose, I go with LeBron because of the closet spread and high total. Both of these guys can be played in all formats and you won't find a team of mine without 1 of them. If you can fit both, it's interesting. But I think I'll need some more value elsewhere to get that down feasibly. 

Power forward

Kristaps Porzingis FD - $10200 DK - $9600
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 48.19 DK - 47.86

If you have the money to spend at PF, Kristaps Porzingis is the easy choice. When you see the match-up with the Brooklyn Nets, it's about all the info you need. Against PF's, the Nets are the 3rd worst team in the league, allowing 49 FPPG. RHJ is a phenomenal man-to-man defender, but he's way too small for Porzingis and the PF position in general. He also has 0 help behind him, which is pretty important against a 7'2 guy who can shoot from 35 feet away. Porzingis has not lived up to what he eventually will this year, but it has everything to do with injuries. Once Porzingis is healthy for a stretch of time, he's going to be putting up 50 fantasy points on a nightly basis and be priced with the rest of the superstars. He's shooting the ball 20+ times a game and playing 35+ minutes. Vegas thinks this game is going to stay close and one of the higher-scoring games of the night. He is expensive on both sites, but could very well burst through his ceiling with 65+ fantasy points. If enough value emerges on the slate, Porzingis should be one of the more high-owned options.

Taj Gibson FD - $5800 DK - $5900
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.16 DK - 29.85

This could have been Tyler Cavanaugh and Ersan Ilyasova, but it looks like John Collins is going to return from injury tonight. That'll put us on Taj Gibson, who's the same cash game gem here as always. He's still seeing normal Thibodeau  38+ minutes and will do so until he gets injured. Then it will be Gorgui Dieng in the same role until he gets back. Until then, Gibson remains a guy who should get you 25 as a floor and has flashed 40 upside somewhat often. The Kings are a slow team and one you don't love to target, but they are much worse against PF's than C. Randolph is an extremely slow defender at this point and while Taj is too, he can still get it done. He shoots 8+ times in every game and does see a 16% usage. Gibson isn't a must anywhere, but he's safe enough to plug in and not worry about.

Jordan Bell FD - $4300 DK - $3600
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 28.08 DK - 25.94

As we sit, Draymond Green is doubtful to play. He's missed 2 of the last 3 games and Jordan Bell is the guy to benefit most. He saw 25 and 20 minutes in the 2 games and came through in both for cash game value. He now gets a great match-up with a Mavericks squad that has no interior defense. Dirk Nowitzki and Maxi Kleber are 2 pitiful defenders and Bell is MUCH more athletic than all of them. He isn't a very polished player just yet, but he doesn't just stand in the corner at least. His price is near-minimum on both sites and he'll only need to get you the 20 he has proven easy to get. As long as Draymond gets ruled out, Bell can be penciled in for 20+ minutes and 20+ fantasy points. Power forward is one of the weaker positions on this slate and Bell is a top 3 value play before any news breaks.

Center

Andre Drummond FD - $9400 DK - $9300
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 47.87 DK - 48.45

We'll kick it off at the 5 with one of 2 expensive options on this slate. KLOVE is also there, but tough to trust off an injury. I suspect most ownership will flow to Drummond with Towns in a tougher match-up, but there are a lot of people who just don't play Drummond. I'm not one. This is a guy who is ready to put up 20 points and 20 rebounds against any team on any night. He's struggled as of the last few games, which is great for us. It has nothing to do with tonight and will keep a few extra %'s off. The Hawks are extremely short-handed up front and have been working with Tyler Cavanugh, Ersan Ilyasova, and Miles Plumlee. Drummond will have no problem bullying all of those guys around and going through with a floor of 30-35. A ceiling over 60 is always on the table as he will hit it 10-15 times a season. The match-up is phenomenal and one of those games where Drummond can only beat himself. Personally, I have him slated into 80% of lineups with 10% Towns and 10% WCS.

Willie Cauley-Stein FD - $6000 DK - $5100
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 22.94 DK - 22.18

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