featured Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

12/15/2017
Chris Durell

Daily Fantasy Football Top Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 15 - 12/17/17

Week 15! I cannot believe I am saying this out loud right now. Well, to be fair, I am saying it in my head. Sorry peeps, my brain is a still a little scrambled from being sick all week and dealing with the agony of last weeks article where I overlooked the Tom Brady in Miami narrative and lost all Sunday-Monday slates with that stack. The Chiefs stack also tanked but if you watched the game it could have been so much better if Kelce would have gained just a half yard more and not dropped like two other touchdowns. If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas. The funny thing about that phrase is that it became popular in 1970 when Don Meredith used it on Monday Night Football. Moving on!

Before getting into this week's top stacks, let's take a look at some of the injury news and notes going into the weekend and remember there are two games on Saturday night now that the College Football regular season has ended.

  • Carson Wentz - Tore his ACL in last weeks game vs. the Rams and has been put on season-ending IR. This means the Eagles will turn to Nick Foles for the remainder of the season and he is a bargain on both sites.
  • Josh McCown - Broke his hand last week and will need surgery which will end his season. Bryce Petty will get the start this week vs. the Saints.
  • Tyrod Taylor - Will be the starter this week for the Bills after Nathan Peterman was ruled out with a concussion.
  • LeSean McCoy - After being limited early in the week with a knee injury, Shady was listed as a full participant on Thursday and is good to go this week.
  • Leonard Fournette - Popped up on the injury report after not practicing on Wednesday or Thursday due to a quad injury. Stay tuned as lineup lock approaches and if he is out, T.J. Yeldon and Chis Ivory would likely split the work in the backfield.
  • DeAndre Hopkins - Did not practice on Thursday with a toe injury. Not a whole of info available so stay tuned to the Friday and weekend team reports.
  • Aaron Rodgers - Was medically cleared this week and will make his return to the Packers to face the Panthers in Week 15.
  • Joe Mixon - Returned to a limited practice on Thursday but there is no guarantee he will be back on the field this week. If he is out, we can once again consider Gio Bernard although the decision is not as easy on DraftKings this week as he saw a $2,200 price increase.
  • Ameer Abdullah & Matthew Stafford - Neither player was listed on the final injury report and both will play on Saturday.
  • Adrian Peterson - Has been placed on season-ending IR with a neck injury. Kerwynn Williams is a nice value play on DraftKings at $4K as a volume back against the Redskins.
  • Jimmy Graham - As he has been over the last few weeks, he has not practiced but is fully expected to start on Sunday.
  • Kyle Rudolph - Sat out Wednesday and Thursday and is in danger of missing the Vikings Week 15 game vs. the Bengals.
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster - Done serving his one-game suspension but was added to the injury report yesterday after being limited with a hamstring injury. Stay tuned for further reports.
  • Amari Cooper - Doubtful to play once again with an ankle injury.

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Green Bay Packers

Quarterback - Aaron Rodgers
Primary Target - Jordy Nelson
Secondary Targets - Randall Cobb, Devante Adams

R.E.L.A.X. Packers fans, your elite quarterback will be back under center this week and is the headliner for my stacks this week for a couple reasons. First of all, I feel he won't be as highly owned as some other options and if you are a believer in the FanShareSports tag counts(I certainly am) then this just proves my point as he is not getting the same love as other options. Here is a peak at the QB tags early Friday afternoon.

A lot of people will be on Cam this week and for good reason. The Packers rank 20th in DVOA vs. the pass, 21st in fantasy points against QB's, and 29th against wideouts. The Panthers, on the season, rank 7th in DVOA vs. the pass, 11th in fantasy points to QB's, and 23rd against wideouts but what stood out to me the most and the main reason for the Rodgers love is the more recent results. (click to enlarge).

That's right, they have been pretty bad allowing nine touchdowns through the air and have allowed four wideouts to record 100 or more yards. They now face a Packers team with three very capable options and I will be targeting all three in multiple GPP lineups this week. I will be mostly concentrating on Jordy Nelson who is almost exclusively reliant on Rodgers as was proven when he was out. The splits are incredible. Nelson has seen a pretty big price boost and Devante Adams is the most expensive of the three which has me thinking they will be a bit lower owned as well as most people are going to want to see the performance before jumping back on board. If you are looking for value, take a shot with Randall Cobb who is fairly cheap on both sites, especially DraftKings in the sub $5K range.

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Los Angeles Chargers

Quarterback - Phillip Rivers
Primary Target - Keenan Allen

If you are planning on getting in on some Saturday NFL action, it will be almost impossible to avoid the chalk with the Chargers. Over the last three weeks, Phillip Rivers has totaled 1,097 yards(300+ in each) with six touchdowns. His favorite target has been none other than Keenan Allen who has been an absolute beast with four straight games where he has tallied 100 or more yards(547 total) with four touchdowns. With that monster stretch, Allen now sits fourth overall in targets with 9.9 per game and fifth overall in yardage among receivers with 1,143 yards. The dynamic duo now gets an elite matchup vs. the Chiefs who have been terrible against the pass this year giving up the fifth-most yards per game(248.5) and rank 26th in fantasy points against QB's and 31st against wideouts.

 

Defense/Running Back Correlation Stack - Baltimore Ravens & Alex Collins

There are a few of these correlation stacks I like this week but the one that stands out above the rest is the Ravens and Alex Collins. First of all, let's look at the Ravens defense and the glaring thing here is that they rank second in the league in takeaway's while the Browns rank 1st overall in giveaways which has me licking my chops but there is more. The Ravens rank seventh overall in team sacks with 36 this season while Deshone Kizer has been sacked 29 times in 12 starts this season. The Ravens have also tallied double-digit fantasy points even times this season with four of those performances totaling 20 or more fantasy points. Turning to the running back portion of the stack, Alex Collins has taken over as the lead back in Baltimore this season and ran away with the job lately. While he has only topped 100 yards twice this season he has scored at least one touchdown in four straight games. While the Browns do rank 1st overall in DVOA vs. the rush and 12th in fantasy points against, they haven't been as good lately giving up the following totals over the past five weeks:

  • vs. Packers
    • Jamaal Williams - 15 carries for 49 yards(3.3 per carry) and a touchdown
  • vs. Chargers
    • Melvin Gordon - 19 carries for 77 yards(4.1 per carry)
  • vs. Bengals
    • Joe Mixon - 23 carries for 114 yards(5.0 per carry) and a touchdown
  • vs. Jaguars
    • Leonard Fournette - 28 carries for 111 yards(4.0 per carry)
  • vs. Lions
    • Ameer Abdullah - 11 carries for 52 yards(4.7 per carry) and a touchdown
    • Theo Riddick - 4 carries for 35 yards(8.8 per carry)

The Ravens are currently seven-point favorites and should be able to get out to a lead where they can 1. let their pass rush loose and 2. give extra volume to Alex Collins in the second half of the game. The floor seems pretty high considering the price and the upside, in my opinion, is through the roof.

Also consider: Chicago Bears/Jordan Howard on Saturday and Minnesota Vikings/Latavius Murray on Sunday

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First time with NFL? Be sure to read our free MLB and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.

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