Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel - Farmers Insurance Open

DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.

Farmers Insurance Open

Welcome back to another week of daily fantasy golf. It's early in the 2018 season but this is by far the biggest week of the year as Tiger Woods returns to action. It marks his first official start on the Tour since the Farmers Insurance Open last year where he shot 76/72 and missed the cut. He is, however, coming off a fantastic showing at the Hero World Challenge in early December where he finished T9 after shooting three rounds under 70. It will most definitely be "Must See TV" and brings a ton of excitement to the overall golf conversation.

This week we are treated to another multi-course rotation with Torrey Pines South and North courses being used. Golfers will get a crack at each course in the first two days with a 36 hole cut coming after Friday's round and the South Course being used in each of the final two rounds. After some birdie fests over the past few weeks, things will change this week as Torrey Pines is considered one of the toughest tests on the PGA Tour, especially since the North Course was renovated in 2016. Jon Rahm is the defending champ with a score of -13 but the three previous winners all won with a score under in the single digits. Let's take a quick look at the hole composition and approach shot distribution(via Fantasy National Golf Club). Throughout the article, I will almost exclusively be concentrating on teh South Course as golfers will be spending three of the four rounds on this course incuding the final two rounds.

As you can see above, length is one of the biggest challenges here at Torry Pines so I will be not only looking at Strokes Gained: Approach but also factoring in Proximity from the 175-200 yards and from 200+ yards. Driving Distance is something I will use as a tie-breaker between players but don't have it in my model as PGA Tour stats only factor in two holes per round which isn't the most accurate in my opinion. With this not being a birdie fest and combined with the average fairways hit being around 50% I will be looking closely and weighing Strokes Gained: Around the Green and Bogey Avoidance this week. Finally, I will be weighing Par 5 scoring very high this week as there has been 40-48% of the total birdies made on these four holes on the South Course.

The Course

Torrey Pines Golf Club(South)
Par 72 - 7,698 Yards
Greens - Poa Annua

**Click HERE or the picture above to check out the course breakdown from PGATour.com**

Past Five Winners

• Jon Rahm(-13)
• Brandt Snedeker(-6)
• Jason Day(-9)
• Scott Stallings(-9)
• Tiger Woods(-14)

Top Stats in the Model

• Strokes Gained: Approach/Proximity from 175-200 & 200+ Yards
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
• Par 5 Scoring
• Bogey Avoidance

One little note before jumping into the article. I use multiple sources for my research to help determine key stats starting with Fantasy National Golf Club and their elite set of tools from course history, hole composition, past performance and much, much more. I also combine it with some of the information on Future of Fantasy including correlated courses and most importantly the quotes from players section to help determine what it takes to win here(key stats). When breaking down ownership and trying to come up with popularity, I love the tools over at FanShareSports as they break down every piece of information on articles and social media mentions to provide us with Tag COunts, Sentiment Ratings, Subject Tags, Salary Differential week to week and much more.

Top Course History Targets

Charles Howell III
World Golf Ranking (#66)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Draftkings ($8,300)
FanDuel ($10,000)

Leading the way for me this week when looking at course history is Charles Howell III. On my sheet, I only look at the last five years for my model but I decided to look back to the start of his career and was kind of blown away. Chucky has played here 15 times and not only made the cut in all 15 but also has tallied seven Top 10's and has finished Top 5 in two of the last three years. He also comes in with some pretty good form as well having made six of seven cuts to start the season and has shot in the 60's in six of his last eight rounds going back to the Sony Open. He also stands out a bit statistically as he ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 6th in Bogey Avoidance. At $10,000 on FanDuel, I think he is a GPP only play but on DraftKings at $8,300 I think we can use him in all formats this week.

Tony Finau
World Golf Ranking (#44)
Vegas Odds (35/1)
Draftkings ($8,700)
FanDuel ($10,900)

Finau hasn't played here near as much as Howell but has seen the results improve each and every year. It started with a T24 in 2015, T18 in 2016, and then he popped in a big way last year finishing T4 after an opening round 73.  He has the game that fits the course as he sits #1 on my sheet when looking at driving distance, sits 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 18th and 21st in Proximity from 175-200 and 200+ yards, 9th in Par 5 scoring, 23rd in bogey avoidance, and 18th in birdie or better %. With some nice form to start the year(2nd, T26, T11, T16, T32), he is one of just two golfers to rank Top 15 in all four categories on the sheet and with a price under $9K on DraftKings makes a great play in all formats.

Top Current Form Targets

Rickie Fowler
World Golf Ranking (#7)
Vegas Odds (12/1)
Draftkings ($11,400)
FanDuel ($12,100)

After missing the cut at the St. Jude Classic last June, Rickie has been on a roll. He closed the season out with nine straight finishes of T26 or better including five Top 10's and three Top 5's. That form has carried over into this season where he opened with a runner-up finish at the OHL Classic, won the small-field Hero World Challenge, and finished T4 at the Tournament of Champions. Rickie could have also been listed in the stats section as well as he ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and Putting on my sheet, 4th in proximity from 175-200 yards, 3rd in par scoring, 6th in par 5 scoring, 1st in bogey avoidance, and 4th in birdie or better %. The one knock he has on him is the recent course history as he has missed the cut in three of his last four trips to Torrey Pines(other finish was T61) but I am not too concerned as before that he had finishes of T6, T13, T20, and T5 here. With a loaded group of golfers in the $10K+ range on DraftKings, this recent course history could leave Rickie as the lowest owned of the group making him an excellent GPP play this week.

Kyle Stanley
World Golf Ranking (#45)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($7,400)
FanDuel ($9,300)

Peeking down into the value range we find Kyle Stanley who is also having a terrific start to the season. It started in the fall with a T21 at the CIMB Classic, T19 at the CJ Cup, and T5 at the WGC-HSBC Champions. It started off slow at the Tournament of Champions where he finished 30th in the small field event but turned it around the next week at the Sony Open where he finished T10. He also comes back to a track where he has been successful with Top 25 finishes in each of the last two years and also finished runner-up in 2012 after losing in a playoff. He isn't the longest off the tee but ranks 21st in strokes gained: off the tee+approach, 1st in driving accuracy, and Top 30 in par 4 scoring, par 5 scoring, bogey avoidance, and birdie or better %. All things considered, I will be using Stanley in all formats on DraftKings this week.

Who the Stats Like

Jon Rahm
World Golf Ranking (#2)
Vegas Odds (8/1)
Draftkings ($11,800)
FanDuel ($12,600)

He is in a unique situation this week as he is not only the defending champion here at the Farmers but also won last week. It is tough to win back to back events let alone back to back weeks on Tour but if anyone can do it Jon Rahm right now. Looking at my cheatsheet, he ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee+Approach, 28th in Proximity from 200+, 6th in par 4 scoring, 4th in par 5 scoring, and 3rd in birdie or better %. I then decided to look at his rolling stats for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Fantasy National Golf Club and he ranks Top 5 when looking at last 4, 8, 12, 24, 50, and 100 rounds played. Pretty amazing stuff. Also looking at my sheet, he joins Tony Finau as the only other golfer to rank Top 15 in all four categories. I won't make the mistake of fading him in GPP's this week and you shouldn't either.

Bud Cauley
World Golf Ranking (#110)
Vegas Odds (35/1)
Draftkings ($7,900)
FanDuel ($9,500)

I wanted to find another value play who not only comes with safety for cash games but also upside for GPP formats. Enter Bud Cauley who I wrote up last week in the course history section and he did not let us down with a T14 to add to his terrific start to the season. He has now made all five cuts with three Top 15's and two Top 10 finishes and really pops when looking at the stats. On my sheet, he ranks 6th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 16th in overall Proximity, 30th in Proximity from 200+ yards, and 23rd in par 4 scoring. Like I did with Rahm, I also looked at his rolling stats for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and he ranks Top 10 in his last 4, 8, 12, 24, and 50 rounds played. The course history is split right down the middle as he missed the cut last year and in 2013 but did finish T25 in 2016 and T13 in 2012 so it appears he knows what it takes to win here. Considering the value, at least on DraftKings, I will be using him in all formats this week.

 

Who is being Mentioned on FanShareSports(DraftKings)

$10K+ Range

No surprise to see Rahm at the top of the tag count this week after winning the CareerBuilder challenge a week ago. He also returns to Torrey Pines as the defending champion. I can tell you one thing, I won't be fading him this week. Justin Rose sits 5th in overall tags thanks to some wonderful form as he won back to back events at the WGC-HSBC Champions and then the Turkish Airlines Open(Euro). He followed those wins up with a T10 at the DP World Tour Championship(Euro) and T22 at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship(Euro) last week. He also comes back to the Farmers with some decent course history with finishes of T22, T25, T33 in 2010-2012 and after missing the event for two straight years he missed back to back cuts but bounced back last season with a T4. He is my One and Done pick this week and will be in a ton of my GPP lineups. Rickie Fowler comes in third in the top tier as his course history has been less than optimal over the last few years. I mentioned this in my write up and think he makes a nice risk/reward GPP play. If you are looking for some separation in the top tier, Hideki Matsuyama makes a nice option as he sits at the bottom of this tier in tags. He hasn't recorded a Top 10 here at Torrey Pines in four trips but comes in with some form finishing Top 5 in two of his last three tournaments and is an elite ball-striker ranking 4th overall in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee+Approach on my cheatsheet. I can honestly make a case for all four of these top tier golfers and may have to enter more lineups than usual to get a piece of each of them.

 

$9K & $8K Range

Tony Finau sits second overall in tags and first in start recommendations thanks to his sub $9K price tag, course history, form, and stats. I wrote him up above and he is one of my favorite plays in all formats. The $8K range is absolutely loaded with golfers who fit the course well and Woodland sits directly behind Finau in tags and starts. With his consistent course history and form, I think he makes an excellent cash game play this week but feel we can find some pivot plays for GPP with a little more upside.  Ollie fits that upside mold for me this week despite being highly owned as he is coming off a Top 10 at the Sony Open and a Top 10 last year here at the Farmers.

Looking at players who sit a bit lower in the tag and start ranks this week, I like Cameron Smith who currently has only been tagged seven times and should be around 5% owned. He ranks 16th overall in my model this week thanks to some nice form to start the season(T5, 3rd, T17, T18) combined with some decent stats(6th in SG:ATG, 11th in BoB%, Top 30 in both Par 4& 5 scoring). Looking at his course history, he has gotten better each year with missed cuts in 2015 and 201(128th then 89th) but rebounded last season and finished T33. With some experience under his belt now at Torrey Pines, I can see him getting inside the Top 25 with Top 10 upside and for $8,200 on DraftKings at low ownership, that is more than optimal. Shane Lowry is another player I will be targeting at lower ownership this week. He hasn't played on the PGA Tour since his T7 at the Wyndham Championship in August but has been performing on the Euro Tour lately with finishes of T2, T12, T8, T12 over his last four tournaments. He also returns to Torrey Pines with some course history including a T33 last year, T13 in 2016 and T7 in 2015.

 

$7K & $6K Range

Johnny Vegas tops this range in tags and is 6th overall thanks to some nice form this season having made all six cuts including a T7 at the Tournament of Champions and a T11 last at the CareerBuilder Challenge. He also has seen a spike with course comparisons to Glen Abbey where he won the RBC Canadian Open the last two years. There is a big drop off to Chesson Hadley who sits second in this tier but T19 overall but will still likely be over 15% owned with a $2,20 price drop on DraftKings. Kyle Stanley's price has stayed consistent which makes him an excellent value this week considering he has posted back to back Top 25 finishes here at the Farmers. He also comes in with some nice form with Top 10 finishes in two of his last three starts and has made all five cuts this season.

Two of the players I am looking to pivot to in this range are Bud Cauley and Francesco Molinari. Both of them rank inside the Top 10 on my sheet in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee + Approach, Top 30 in Proximity, and Top 50 in Strokes Gained: Around the Green. They both have been inconsistent here at Torey Pines but both have recorded a Top 25 here.

 

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Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.