Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 1/30/18
It's another Tuesday in the NBA, and you know what that means, it's another DFS microslate. Wait!!! Hold the phone! We're looking at a nine game slate this evening, if you can believe it. There's no shortage of studs, and some sloppy defenses to use to our advantage, so what are we waiting for? Let's do this like Brutus. On to the picks!!
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Spencer Dinwiddie FD - $5500 DK - $6500
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 38.06 DK - 38.43
D’Angelo Russell is inching closer to a full return, but the Nets aren’t quite ready to set him loose just yet. He saw 14 minutes in each of his first three games back before moving up to 21 on Friday in Milwaukee, while taking the next day off in Minnesota. He’ll likely see a similar workload tonight against the Knicks which means we still have a little more time to ride the Dinwiddie express before it heads off to daily fantasy basketball irrelevancy. Since Russell returned to the rotation last week, Dinwiddies’ price has been on the decline. The Nets see a nice matchup tonight against a New York defense ranked 22nd overall at the position in a game with a 100.1 combined pace factor and a 215 over/under coming out of Vegas. Even with Russell cutting into his time Dinwiddie has a solid 25 point floor, and has proven in the past that a 40 point ceiling is not out of reach if he gets the minutes.
Dejounte Murray FD - $6300 DK - $5900
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 30.39 DK - 30.78
Sure, you can always pay up for Westbrook or Curry, but there is value to be had tonight art the point, so we should take advantage, especially with some solid ways of paying up at other positions. A prime example of the value is Dejounte Murray. Murray has started five straight games for the Spurs now and has exceeded all expectations. He’s averaged 1.26 FP per minute while seeing a steady run of 27-33 minutes per night. These two teams play at a snails pace, but I can easily see what our NBA lineup optimizer likes in Murray despite the slow pace and low Vegas projection. In just his last four games Murray has posted two double doubles, while coming just a board shy of a third. He’s also averaged 2 steals in that stretch while not being shy with the assists either. Murray plays a complete game, and can easily stuff the stat sheet, making him an excellent option to target in all formats.
Kyle Lowry FD - $7700 DK - $7400
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 38.42 DK - 40.24
Kyle Lowry is coming into tonight off a fantastic outing against the Lakers where he posted just his second double double of the month, pairing 14 points with 11 rebounds in just 26 minutes. He should find himself back in the 32-37 minute range tonight in a more competitive contest against the Timberwolves. Lowry saw 34 against these same Wolves just ten days ago and was shooting straight heat scoring 40 points to pair with five assists and rebounds each. Minnesota has been a bottom three defense against the two over their last five games and Lowry is primed for a big outing. This play is particularly appealing on DraftKings for the price, but he’s well within consideration on FanDuel as well.
Bradley Beal FD - $7900 DK - $8400
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 40.79 DK - 42.17
I’m going with the mindset that John Wall sits tonight. The Wizards point guard sat out on Saturday against the Hawks with a sore knee and is currently listed as doubtful for tonight. This once again shoots Bradley Beal to the top of the projections for tonight, not just at the two, but as one of the overall top plays. Beal underwhelmed in that last game, though it was a 25 point blowout win and he saw his second lowest minutes total in his last 16 games. Beal should see all the minutes he can handle tonight in a competitive matchup against the Thunder in which the Wiz will look to him to deal with Russell Westbrook and lead the scoring attack. Value is the key to DFS basketball, and Beal presents tremendous value thanks to the 4% bump in usage he sees with Wall out of the game.
Jrue Holiday FD - $8500 DK - $8300
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 38.66 DK - 39.01
Speaking of value, and benefitting from another player being out of commission, Jrue Holiday sees a 7.2% bump with no Boogie Cousins, who ruptured his achilles and will miss the remainder of the season. Holidays’ price is quickly on the rise, but if the 20/9/7/3/1 line he posted against the Clippers on Sunday is any indication, we still have a way to go before he maxes out in his new role as the second option in the Pelicans offensive attack. Sacramento has surrendered the sixth most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards over the last two weeks, and Hield and Bogdanovic will have a hard time keeping pace with Jrue and the fast paced Pelicans.
Eric Gordon FD - $5400 DK - $6300
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 26.86 DK - 28.36
James Harden seems to finally be seeing his minutes back on track playing 37 against the Suns on Sunday, but he has yet to justify his price tag since making his return from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for seven games earlier this month. That said, if you want to target the Orlando perimeter tonight Eric Gordon is the better way to go about doing so. Outside of an off game against the Warriors last Saturday, Gordon has been a stellar play off the Houston bench and is firmly entrenched in to 30-35 minutes per game. If you’ve been following along this season you know the Magic are terrible defensively, ranked 27th over all, and they’re eleventh worst in the game at the two. Gordons’ price has dropped steadily since Hardens’ return, and right now he sits at a point where all he needs to do is net you 25-30 in cash games which should come easily tonight.
LeBron James FD - $11400 DK - $11300
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 54.18 DK - 55.63
Our first stud of the night. LeBron James and the Cavaliers hit the Motor City to take on the Pistons. James, who has struggled at times recently, putting up some really poor fantasy performances has been back on track over the past week scoring 28, 26, and 25 points in his last three games with a triple double, and a double double. The king is back! Though Detroit is a league average defense this season, and have been terrible at the three over the past five games, none of that matters as this is the new look Detroit Pistons. We’ll touch more on that in a minute, but one thing for certain, regardless of the matchup, or whatever changes the opposing team may have made, James is matchup proof and if he wants to put up 50 he will, if he wants to put up 70, he will. This is why James is always in consideration for tournaments, and tonight is one of the best options for paying up in cash as well.
Reggie Bullock FD - $3800 DK - $4700
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 22.56 DK - 22.6
So, if you were lost in the woods since yesterday, and just made your way to civilization and finally regained cell service, welcome back! Also, you may not be aware, but the Pistons made a blockbuster trade with the Clippers yesterday, bringing Blake Griffin to the Motor City while Tobias Harris, Boban Marjanovic, and Avery Bradley all head out west to L.A. This means Reggie Bullock, who was starting at shooting guard while Bradley deals with a sore groin will likely continue to do so. Bullock started Sunday’s game against the Cavs in Cleveland and will now most likely draw the start again as the two teams meet up once more, this time in Detroits’ house. In Sundays’ match, Bullock posted a 15/5/4 line with a steal and paid 7.6X PPD. For an offensive powerhouse, the Cavs are terrible defensively and this matchup is primed for Bullock to once again post a fantasy line that will crush value in cash games and tournaments. As long as its confirmed he is starting once again, Bullock is in play everywhere.
DeMarre Carroll FD - $5500 DK - $5700
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 31.91 DK - 32.18
While you can’t really go wrong with the Cleveland Detroit stack above, if you can’t afford James, or have too much salary to settle on Bullock then you can meet in the middle with DeMarre Carroll. Despite being bantered about in trade rumors with the deadline looming Carroll just goes out there on a nightly basis and does what he does best. Carroll has been a solid DFS play all season who provides in cash games on the regular while flashing 35-45 FP upside quite often as well. Carroll has posted just under a fantasy point per minute this season and you can count on him to see 28-34 minutes per game. Over the past two weeks the Knicks are allowing nearly 10 more FP to opposing small forwards than their season average, making them a bottom five defense in that stretch. Carroll represents a solid pivot of of either of the two guys above depending on your needs.
Anthony Davis FD - $12500 DK - $11400
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 61.2 DK - 61.22
Like Jrue Holiday above, the sites wasted no time correcting on Anthony Davis price with the loss of DeMarcus Cousins. The brow is up $700 on FanDuel since last game, and $500 on DraftKings. Even at $11.4K on DK, Davis is still a value for the opportunity he stands to see with Boogie out of the way. Davis sees a substantial 4.2% increase in his usage with Boogie off the court and Sunday against the Clippers in his first game without Cousins at the five he was unstoppable in 40 minutes, scoring 25 points, 17 rebounds and dishing out six assists. Expect more of the same against the Kings, who have been average on paper against the position this season, but are a bottom five defense in the past two weeks. LeBron James is in a great spot, and significantly cheaper, but if I had to choose, Davis is my favorite way to pay up tonight, all things considered he’ll probably be chalk tonight despite the price and I’ll do what I can to make sure he fits.
Kristaps Porzingis FD - $8800 DK - $8100
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 43.48 DK - 42.8
Paying up for Davis, and potentially James will make it hard to fit Kristaps Porzingis into our lineups, but let’s not just dismiss the Latvian wonder. First thing to consider with Zinger is that the Knicks haven’t played a game since Friday, so he should be plenty rested. Also, despite a shaky start to the month, Porzingis has been much better down the stretch. He’s averaged 19 points, six boards, an assist, and 1.35 blocks in his last three games. Finally, the return of Tim Hardaway Jr. to the lineup has driven the cost down making Zinger much more of a value. Let’s not forget the matchup either. The Nets are the third most generous defense at the four, allowing 47.7 FP on average to the position. Davis will likely be chalk, and paring Porzingis with him may prove difficult to do unless some serious value opens up, but if you need a pivot for GPP’s, a player averaging 1.23 FP per minute this season is an excellent way to go.
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute FD - $4300 DK - $4200
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 20.23 DK - 19.52
Very early on in the Rockets game against Phoenix on Sunday, Trevor Ariza went down with a leg injury. He has already been ruled out for at least the next two weeks, which means Luc Richard Mbah a Moute should likely draw the start in his place. Mbah a Moute saw 31 minutes in Sunday’s game following Arizas’ early departure and posted a 13/2/1/1/2 line good for a 5X PPD performance. Today he’ll match up with an Orlando team that is equally as bad defensively as Phoenix making Luc a promising way to safely lock 5X PPD into your cash lineups.
Tristan Thompson FD - $4000 DK - $4600
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 23.38 DK - 23.03
Kevin Love FD - $7000 DK - $7200
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 36.85 DK - 39.99
Yes, Kevin Love is a PF on FanDuel again, but his multi position eligibility on DK makes pairing him and Tristan Thompson together a promising plan of attack there. Thompsons’ price is starting to climb now that he has joined the Cavs starting five, so he’s going to need to give us a little more than he gave us on Sunday when the Pistons were in Cleveland. That said, he’s still cheap enough that he can’t really do much to hurt you in cash games, while allowing plenty of flexibility to pay up elsewhere. Love meanwhile, remains bargain priced, riding a string of four straight double doubles. While we can’t look at DvP with Detroit right now as they’ve flipped their whole starting rotation, we have to imagine they’re going to take some time to learn to gel together which could open the door for a big game out of the Cavs tonight. We’ve already looked at some solid power forward options, so I’ll limit Love to DraftKings, but Thompson is an excellent option on FanDuel with the potential to go off in all formats.
Jonas Valanciunas FD - $5900 DK - $5600
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 29.36 DK - 30.81
Center is a mess, especially following this Griffin trade. Drummond has to learn to share time with Blake. Jordan needs to adjust to life without Blake. Jokic has a slow paced matchup with the Spurs. While you could consider Towns, I’ll look to the opposing bench with Jonas Valanciunas. JV has been surprisingly good as of late, coming in just under 5X PPD against the Lakers on Sunday, after two Impressive games against the Hawks and Jazz. Atlanta is a terrible defense against big men so the 7.9X PPD Valanciunas scored on them isn’t exactly shocking, but to follow that up with a 10.5X PPD showing against a San Antonio defense ranked sixth overall defending the position is something else altogether. Minnesota is average at the position, and while there is always the risk of JV going out there and putting up a big fat dud, I’ll ride his hot streak in some GPP’s and see where it lands me, especially since most people will look at his poor showing the last time he played the Wolves and steer clear.
We’ve got a lot of great plays to consider tonight, these are some of the best coming through the initial run of our system. Thanks for reading, and as always, leave comments or questions below, or just pop into the member chat. Thanks for reading and good luck tonight. Cheers!!