Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings -2/11/18
Good riddance, NFL! Or maybe I'm just like a bitter ex-boyfriend pretending like I don't miss you.
Nonetheless, we get our first NBA only Sunday in quite some time, and it feels good. Lots of injury uncertainty today, and games spread throughout the day. Should be a wild one. Let's dive in!
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Ish Smith FD - $6100 DK - $5900
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 32.12 DK - 31.79
The early slate PG position is pretty thin, but I think Ish offers a heck of a lot of safety here. We know he's slated to play 30+ minutes per game, and while Blake's arrival has taken the ball out of his hands to some degree, it hasn't hurt his fantasy performance too much. He's averaging 5x+ points per dollar on these prices in his last 6 games, and on a 3 game slate, that kind of value is the kind you'll happily lock in. Atlanta's been a bottom 7 defense against opposing point guards as well, which only sweetens the deal. Let's take a look at the rest of the position to show what I mean about the uncertainty.
Cleveland: Doesn't field the position.
Atlanta: Schroder has a bad match-up with DET.
NYK: Doesn't field the position.
Indiana: Cory Joseph does literally nothing with his minutes.
And that leaves us with Kyrie in the old revenge game against Cleveland. He's playable here to be sure, but don't let yourself get talked into the revenge game stuff. We literally just went through this with Blake's match-up versus the Clippers. Yes, Kyrie can be good here. It's a great match-up with a bad defense. I think he's slightly overpriced, but ultimately playable since the position is so thin.
De'Aaron Fox FD - $5400 DK - $5900
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 29.67 DK - 30.22
Say what you will about the Kings and how crazy they are when it comes to minutes, but we've seen what their plan is with no George Hill: to run De'Aaron Fox. Fox is quite simply under-priced given that he is almost a lock for 30+ minutes per night right now, as he's paid 5x points per dollar in all but ONE of his opportunities in such scenarios this year. Minnesota isn't an ideal match-up, but this is just a price and opportunity mismatch that I'll be thrilled to have a piece of.
He's a quick note about the late slate before we go on. Every single game contains a team that plays a bottom 5 pace this season. That's kind of insane, and it means that value is even harder to come by than usual. And some of these teams that play slowly also don't totally field credible DFS squads (I'm looking at you, Memphis and Utah). Still, if we're playing late this is the hand we've been dealt. Let's figure it out.
Keep an eye on the Memphis situation. With Selden already ruled out and Harrison questionable, it could be a Mario Chalmers Sunday.
Courtney Lee FD - $4800 DK - $5200
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 24.79 DK - 24.85
Tim Hardaway Jr. FD - $5700 DK - $6300
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 29.08 DK - 30.03
I really like the Knicks' shooting guard duo in the early slate. Both seem under-priced relative to what their current opportunity should be on account of weird game scripts recently, but even with their injury concerns it's hard to imagine them getting blown out in every single game. Hardaway's true price should be something like $6,400 and Lee's something like $5,500 if our model is to be believed, and the only risk I see here is that aforementioned blowout. I don't worry too much about that given the relative lack of options on a small slate, and I'll be a buyer here.
Jaylen Brown FD - $5600 DK - $5500
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 28.15 DK - 28.82
Brown was terrific in the Celtics' last meeting with the Cavs, and he scored his 36 fantasy points on just 29 minutes played. Sure, the "new look" Cavs will bring some slightly different defensive looks on account of their new personnel, but am I really supposed to believe that Jordan Clarkson and Rodney Hood will turn them back into the lock down defense of 2 seasons ago? No, I suspect we'll see more difficulties with rotations and defending the pick and roll, and the methodical Boston offense will pick them apart. Brown seems like a very solid value play with significant upside if the game stays close.
Keep an eye on the Cavs situation. We don't yet know how Clarkson and Hood will be deployed, and I suspect it will cut into the usage of recent DFS stalwart Kyle Korver, but I'll still keep an ear out for news on the chance that I can run him again.
Another mess. I am kind of hating this slate to be honest. I can't give a clear cut recommendation at this moment, but let's break down the position.
SAC-MIN: Both Wiggins and Bogdan seem like reasonable if unexciting options. Both should be considered at risk to lose minutes given the potential lopsided nature of this one.
DAL-HOU: I think Matthews, Gordon, and Harden are all slightly overpriced for their current opportunity, and we have huge game script concerns here as well with Houston being favored by 13.5 points. Pass.
MEM-OKC: Tyreke is likely back! And he's got a terrible match-up with OKC. OKC doesn't field this position for DFS purposes.
UTA-POR: McCollum has a horrendous match-up. Donovan Mitchell appears to be back in full fighting shape from his injury, and Portland is a slightly below average match-up. I think of him similarly to Bogdan and Wiggins, but given the likely tighter spread he's probably my favorite play on the slate.
Michael Beasley FD - $6600 DK - $7100
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 39.31 DK - 39.8
Beasley is acting like McCauley Culkin in Home Alone right now - ordering whole cheese pizzas just for himself, setting up elaborate traps, and ultimately making everyone feel a little bit scared and uncomfortable. He popped off 42 fantasy points against a tough Raptors defense in just 30 minutes, and all signs were pointing to him being in for the long haul if the game didn't get out of hand. Yes, the Knicks are bad - but Beasley is here to stay, and these prices are only going up. Easy buy on a short slate.
Taurean Prince FD - $4700 DK - $5100
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 25.91 DK - 26
Reggie Bullock FD - $4600 DK - $4600
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 23.97 DK - 24.14
The cheap options. Each has their own flaws - Prince's minutes come and go, and he has a bad match-up. Bullock's minutes look secure, but he can do a whole lot of standing around when Ish isn't looking his way. Both solidly in the "fine and unexciting" camp for me. I think I like Prince better for GPPs.
P.J. Tucker FD - $3700 DK - $3900
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 18.74 DK - 18.7
Dillon Brooks FD - $4100 DK - $4400
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 21.21 DK - 21.06
I'm not going to break down the entire position here, but unless you believe the Butler explosion is real (I kinda don't) or you want to play Paul George in a very slow match-up (I definitely don't), then you're going to be left scraping around for cheap options. Dillon Brooks just looks like a solid minutes bet to me, particularly with Wayne Selden ruled out. As for Tucker, it's mostly a price thing. He's averaged more than 34 minutes per game in his last few, and while some of that has to do with Eric Gordon's health, I think we see him out here for 30+ minutes. Yes, he can do nothing in those minutes. But why spend up at a bad position? I'll be happy to escape it cheaply and move on with my life.
Jeff Green FD - $4000 DK - $4700
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 22.54 DK - 22.86
Things will get a little cozier in Cleveland with the arrival of their new options, but none of them should cut into Jeff Green's healthy workload. He's playing 30+ minutes in close match-ups, and in this #revengegame with Boston that shouldn't change. Okay, the revenge game piece doesn't matter, but he's been paying $4k price tags pretty easily, and even though he's pretty scoring dependent, I'm happy to lock up cheap value on such a small slate. I'll play him in any formats.
Thaddeus Young FD - $5400 DK - $5800
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 28.64 DK - 27.98
Leave it to Thaddeus Young to find new and innovative ways to terrorize me and kill my fantasy lineups. Randomly losing minutes, shooting 0-11 from the field, whole games canceled due to leaky roofs - you name it, and Thad has done it. And I'm STILL HERE, baby. Thad turned things around with a beastly 13/14 in a tough match-up with Boston, and the max-effort play has me feeding at the trough once again. The Knicks were a league average team at defending the power forward position when Porzingis was healthy, but Luke Kornet isn't the defensive presence Porzingis was. Easy cash game play for me.
Also considered: Luke Kornet? Are we doing this thing!?
Jarell Martin FD - $3500 DK - $4300
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 20.87 DK - 20.74
JaMychal Green FD - $4600 DK - $4500
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 24.09 DK - 24.61
The two Memphis power forwards each played 30 minutes in their last game, and were only okay. I'm not sure if we can count on a close game here against the Thunder, but they still seem like high floor options, again, given how crazily shallow this slate is in general.
Kyle O'Quinn FD - $4200 DK - $4900
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 37.94 DK - 38.17
Like Beasley, O'Quinn was en route to huge minutes before things got out of hand against Toronto, and like Beasley, he's a fantasy points per minute God when things get rolling. Unlike Beasley, this price is absurdly reasonable. There's some foul trouble risk here, but it's hard to imagine him not being the overwhelming chalk if Kanter misses again.
Also considered: Al Horford. His minutes should still be steady, and I'm not sure the big changes in Cleveland do anything to really help their weak interior defense.
Rudy Gobert FD - $7700 DK - $7000
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 37.85 DK - 37.52
Don't look now, but Gobert's minutes are on a resurgence, and his fantasy point per minute contributions are as steady as ever. We know the Jazz were happy to play him 35+ minutes a game when healthy, and it looks like they've finally regained the confidence they need to leave him out there for longer periods of time. Portland represents an excellent opportunity for the Jazz to capitalize on their big man as well. They don't have the interior speed to punish the Jazz for going big, and Gobert is an excellent answer for the Portland guards if they get into the lane. I think he's a very solid cash game option with more upside than most realize.
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- Kyrie Irving: (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)