Daily Fantasy NASCAR Race Preview - Daytona 500

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Daytona 500

Daytona International Speedway
Track - 2.5-Mile Superspeedway(Restrictor Plate)

Welcome back races fans, it's time for another exciting Monster Energy Cup Series season. Before I get into the fantasy breakdown and picks I would like to share with you my experience for the Daytona 500. I would first of all like to thank NASCAR Integrated Media Communications for inviting me to take part in this one of a kind experience covering Speedweeks from a media perspective. I am currently in an office in the Daytona 500 club which is situated on the infield right on the start/finish line. Today(Wednesday) I will be conducting some driver interviews with Austin Dillon, Erik Jones, Kevin Harvick, and Ty Dillon as well as following along with the mainstream media coverage and driver interviews. I will then be spending Thursday through Sunday in the pits and garage to get an up-close look at how teams operate. If you want to see the pictures or hear interviews, I will post the links in the comments section below.

There are some notable changes going into the 2018 season and it starts with pit road. The number of crew members allowed over the wall will be reduced from six to five this year which could make things interesting from a strategy standpoint early in the season. My feeling after talking to some drivers is that some teams may try some different strategies early on but a few races in should all be close to using the same strategy. The other big difference this season is that the pit guns used will now be a standard piece of equipment coming from the same manufacturer where in the past some teams spent considerably more money to have better guns thus faster pit stops. I will definitely be watching closely and tracking which teams are performing best on pit road this season and including a write up down the line.

Let's now take a look at some of the trends going into this weeks race.

Last Six Winners at Daytona

• 2017 Summer - Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
• 2017 Daytona 500 - Kurt Busch
• 2016 Summer - Brad Keselowski
• 2016 Daytona 500 - Denny Hamlin
• 2015 Summer - Dale Earnhardt Jr.
• 2015 Daytona 500 - Joey Logano

Top 5 Current & Career Track History at Daytona

Brendan Gaughan has been, by far, the best value play on DraftKings at Daytona last season. He finished 7th in July and 11th in last years Daytona 500 and started 32nd and 39th picking up huge place differential points and 60+ DK points in both races. Those were his only two races here since 2015. Aric Almirola missed the summer race here last year, but in three races over the last two years he has been very consistent with finishes of 4th, 15th, and 12th but has a lower DK average due to much better qualifying. This season he will try his luck in a new car as he takes over the #10 for Stewart-Haas Racing. Another driver who has been consistent here and will be in a new car is Michael McDowell who goes from the #95 for Leavine Family Racing to the #34 for Front Row Motorsports. Over his last four races, McDowell has picked up two Top 10's and finished inside the Top 15 all four times. He has also picked up double-digit place differential points in three of those races for a total of +77. Let the value train continue as A.J. Allmendinger has trended in the right direction with finishes of 21st and 13th in 2016 and last year finished inside the Top 10 both times. Joey Logano followed up his 2015 Daytona 500 win with a 6th place in 2016, 4th in the 2016 summer race and again a 6th in last years Daytona 500. What hurts his overall average finish and DK point average was a crash in the July race last year that left him with a 35th place finish.

Looking at the career numbers is where the veteran drivers start popping up like Kurt Busch who broke through with his first Daytona 50 win last year after finishing runner-up three previous times. Kevin Harvick has struggled here recently with finishes of 39th, 22nd, and 33rd but over his career has had success with a win in the summer race and also won the Daytona 500 in 2007. Clint Bowyer has yet to win at the World Center of Racing but has finished Top 10 in 12 of his 24 career races including five of his last seven trips. Austin Dillon got caught up in the same wreck as Logano and many others last year at the Coke Zero 400 in July but has been very consistent in his young career with Top 10's in five of his nine trips.

Top 5 Current Track Type History(last two years)

I talked about Aric Almirola's success at Daytona above and he has also been tremendous at Talladega recently as well. After a wreck in May of 2016, he has finished 8th or better in three straight races picking up double-digit fantasy points both times. He will be a driver to target this weekend if he qualifies far enough back to give him some place differential upside. Kurt Busch is another driver that shows up on both lists when looking at plate tracks. Before his 25th place finish at Talladega last fall, he has tallied a Top 10 in four straight and five of his previous six races there. Can he go back to back at the Daytona 500 this year? I would say there is a great shot at his happening as he is a very consistent plate track racer.  Ricky Stenhouse Jr. shows up third when looking at plate track average finish over the last two years thanks to wins at both Talladega and Daytona(Summer) last year. Overall, he has been a little more consistent at Talladega with five Top 10's but his Daytona performance is not far behind as he has tallied three Top 10's. Denny Hamlin has also been very consistent on the plate tracks as he has finished Top 10 in six of his last 12 races and outside the Top 20 just three times. He will be looking for his 2nd career Daytona 500 this Sunday.

 

The qualifying Duel races for the Daytona 500 to set the field from row two on back will be held tomorrow night. I will be providing a full picks video following these races when I get back to the hotel or first thing Friday morning. Stay tuned.

Daytona 500 Picks Video

 

 

Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE. I also have available my Race by Race Trends sheet you can view as well.

 

If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.