Daily Fantasy NBA Picks -DraftKings Rising Stars Challenge  2/16/18

The Rising Stars Challenge goes down at 9PM EST on Friday with plenty of starpower even in this game between first and second year players. These games are nothing more than exhibitions with defense essentially thrown out the window, but we can still look at some roster construction and past trends to find value on the one game slate.

Top performers from previous games

Jamal Murray
Team World - 2017
62.75 DraftKings Points

Murray came off the bench, played 20 minutes and shot the lights out of the building going 13-16 from the field (9-14 from three) while also chipping in 11 assists. He played the most bench minutes of Team World and actually played more than the starter Dante Exum.

Emmanuel Mudiay
Team World - 2016
59.25 DraftKings Points

The assist numbers piled up for Mudiay with the first unit in 2016 when he dished out 10 dimes and also shot 5-10 from three (way out kicking his coverage there). Team World was very thin at PG in this game with only Raul Neto behind Mudiay.

There are basically one of two types of players who scores well in these games. Guards who shoot threes (Murray, Mudiay in that case) and big men who run the court and rebound. Other top performers in recent years were Mario Hezonja (2016, 49.5 DK Points), Kristaps Porzingis (2016, 46.75 DK points) and Karl-Anthony Towns (2017, 46.25 DK Points)

Other numbers from previous seasons:

• Over the last three seasons, starters averaged 23.5 minutes with players rarely cresting over the 30 minute mark.
• The last two seasons, when defense went completely out the window, the average final score was 154-148.
• Obviously minutes are key and of course the starters will, on average, play more minutes. 11 of the top 15 performances over the last three years came from the starting unit.

Overview of Rosters

Team USA

Starters (Projected)

Donovan Mitchell
Kyle Kuzma
Brandon Ingram
Dennis Smith Jr.
Jaylen Brown

Bench (Projected)

Kris Dunn
De'Aaron Fox
Jayson Tatum
Taurean Prince
John Collins

Quick Thoughts:

Team USA is very guard-dominant with almost no true interior size. I expect more minutes out of Tatum, Collins, Ingram, Collins and possibly Kuzma. The guard/ point guard minutes are a little tougher to parse out simply because Mitchell, Dunn, Smith and Fox will share those duties. Of course, Mitchell is easy to love in this format because he’s a pure scorer, and a volume three-point shooter who’s hitting 35% from beyond the arc.

 

Team World

Starters (Projected)

Joel Embiid
Ben Simmons
Dario Saric
Jamal Murray
Lauri Markkanen

Bench (Projected)

Buddy Hield
Frank Ntilikina
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Domantas Sabonis
Dillon Brooks

They have the opposite issue as Team USA and are very thin at the guard with really only Simmons, Murray and Ntilikina coming in as primary ball handlers. Murray stands out again in this format because of his ability from beyond the arc (39% this season). If he starts, he would likely be one of the best values in the game.

 

Best Potential Values

Joel Embiid
Team World - DK $11,400
Projected DK Points - 41.8

Embiid is the clear fantasy darling in the whole game and even at the most expensive price tag is likely coming cheap if we think he runs a “typical” starter’s minutes. But of course the minutes are a major concern with how the Sixers have handled him this season. It’s tough to imagine the organization would give a green light on playing The Process anything close to his regular season minutes (only 31 per game). That being said, his profile of shooting threes, running the floor, playing in the paint and really just doing everything you could ever want on a basketball court makes him the preferred play here.

Ben Simmons
Team World - DK $10,800
Projected DK Points - 34.5

He doesn’t shoot the three at all, which is an issue in this format, but the up and down pace of the game isn’t. That he’s so long, can handle the ball and the structure of Team World has them already short of ballhandlers makes him a solid value. If anyone can crest up towards 30 minutes in this game, it’s him.

Brandon Ingram
Team USA - DK $8,900
Projected DK Points - 26.2

As I said before, Team USA lacks any kind of size and Ingram (if these are the starters) could just end up as the default center option. Because defense is a complete afterthought in this game we aren’t too worried about him running into foul trouble (and his presence likely helps Embiid even more). Ingram could log close to 30 minutes because he’s so versatile. He’s not a prolific fantasy performer on a per minutes basis, but the run is really what I’m looking for in this game.

John Collins
Team USA - DK $5,700
Projected DK Points - 24.9

I can envision a scenario where he sees a solid amount of bench minutes just because of his size. Collins is averaging 10 points and seven rebounds in only 22 minutes per game this season and should be called on to deal with some of Team World’s interior size. This is of course speculation and it’s an exhibition after all. But I see him as the best cheap value on the slate.