Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel - RBC Heritage
DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.
Another Masters is in the books and for the fourth straight season, the winner made the historic event his first Major Championship. Patrick Reed went into the final round with a three-stroke lead over Rory McIlroy who was chasing the career Grand Slam but it was Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler who put up the biggest fight on Sunday. Spieth made nine birdies and shot a 64 en route to a third-place finish while Fowler came on strong on the back nine with four birdies including one on the 18th to take the Clubhouse lead at -14. Reed walked onto the 18th tee needing only a par to grab the Green Jacket and he did just that with a GIR followed by a two-putt. It was an amazing performance for Reed who led the field in birdies and also added two eagles as well.
This week the PGA Tour travels to Hilton Head, South Carolina for the RBC Heritage from Harbour Town Golf Links. The course is a Pet Dye design so you are going to see a shorter course with tree-lined fairways and very small Bermuda greens. It's a big change for those that played Augusta last week as driver distance is not key here but rather hitting the fairways and placing the ball in the right areas to have a shot at the difficult to hit greens. As you will see from my key stats below, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee with emphasis on accuracy will be key along with Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Scrambling. With the course also being a Par 71, that means 11 Par 4 holes this week so I will also be looking at that closely as a key stat especially form key distances. Let's now take a look at some trends, the course, and then dig into some picks focusing on Course History, Current Form, and Stats.
Harbour Town Golf Links
Par 71 - 7,099 Yards
Greens - Bermuda
**Click HERE or the pic above to check out a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Approach Shot Distribution
Average Driver Distance
Top Stats in the Model
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking(Heavy on Accuracy over Distance)
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Scrambling
- Par 4 Scoring
- Bogey Avoidance
One little note before jumping into the article. I use multiple sources for my research to help determine key stats starting with Fantasy National Golf Club and their elite set of tools from course history, hole composition, past performance and much, much more. I also combine it with some of the information on Future of Fantasy including correlated courses and most importantly the quotes from players section to help determine what it takes to win here(key stats). When breaking down ownership and trying to come up with popularity, I love the tools over at FanShareSports as they break down every piece of information on articles and social media mentions to provide us with Tag Counts, Sentiment Ratings, Subject Tags, Salary Differential week to week and much more.
Top Course History Targets
After an opening round 68 at Augusta National last week, Kuchar finished with a somewhat disappointing T28 at the Masters going four over on the final three days. This week he returns to the RBC Heritage where he has been very successful throughout his career making 13 straight cuts dating back to 2004 and has been even better recently with for straight finishes of 11th or better including a win in 2014. Using Fantasy National Golf Club and looking at his last 24 rounds(shown above), he ranks 2nd in DraftKings scoring, 1st in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 23rd in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, and 30th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Playing the Masters the week before has never really affected Kuchar in the past so I am not all concerned and will be using him in all formats this week.
It has been a terrible start to the 2017-18 season for Luke Donald who has missed five cuts in eight events and has yet to record a Top 25 but there is no better place for him to turn things around than here at Harbour Town. While he has yet to take home the hardware here at the RBC Heritage, he has come close a ton of times with seven finishes of second or third in his last nine events. Looking at the stats ranks here at Harbour Town over the last 24 rounds, Donald is the only player who ranks higher than Kuchar in DraftKings scoring and he also ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, and 12th in Strokes Gained: Putting. With the terrible form, I would think twice before rostering him in cash games, but for GPP's it may be a good idea to get some exposure.
Top Current Form Targets
World Golf Ranking (#41)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
The price is getting a little bit too steep over on FanDuel where Hadwin is the sixth most expensive player this week but on DraftKings he makes an excellent value as the 17th most expensive. He shows up in the form section this week as he has been one of the most consistent golfers in the field. He is coming off a T24 at the Masters and has yet to miss a cut all season in 12 events with three Top 10's and six Top 25 finishes. He has also been trending when looking at fantasy scoring as well as he ranks fourth in the field with an average of 76.6 DK points over his last five events. Looking at course history, Hadwin has played here three times and gotten better with each trip missing the cut in 2015, finishing T30 in 2016, and T22 last year. With a low $8K price tag on DraftKings, I will be using him in all formats this week.
**Update: Hadwin withdrew from the tournament.**
World Golf Ranking (#69)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
I am absolutely loving the balanced approach this week and the next player that stands out from a current form standpoint is Emiliano Grillo. He is coming off a T3 at the Houston Open which is his third Top 10 of the season and like Hadwin, he has yet to miss a cut all season(11 for 11) and also has been trending when looking at fantasy scoring with an average of 75.6 DK points over his last five events. It will be his first trip to Harbour Town but he would appear to be a course fit as he is excellent off the tee(10th in SG: OTT and 14th in Driving Accuracy), ranks 13th on the sheet in Par 4 Scoring, and 12th in Bogey Avoidance.
Who the Stats Like
World Golf Ranking (#23)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
His price is getting back up where it was early in the season when he was putting up Top 10 after Top 10 and I think he makes a great pivot off the $10K+ players(DraftKings). He has been up and down here at Harbour Town but has two Top 10's in his last four trips including last season and stands out from a statistical perspective as he ranks #4 in my stats model. He is Top 30 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Around the Green, third in Strokes Gained: Putting, 9th in Driving Accuracy, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 11th in Bogey Avoidance, and 9th in Birdie or Better %. While he disappointed at the Masters with a T44, he has been a solid option all season making 11 of 12 cut including seven Top 10 finishes. All things considered, I will be using him in all formats this week.
World Golf Ranking (#132)
Vegas Odds (110/1)
I could have easily fit Streelman into the form section this week as he has been very consistent this season, especially considering the value price. He has made 12 of 13 cuts with two Top 10's and five Top 25's and ranks just outside the Top 25 on my sheet when looking at fantasy scoring(62.9 DK point average) over his last five events. Where he really stands out to me this week, however, is in the stats department as he is #5 in that model with ranks of 12th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 24th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Driving Accuracy, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, and 1st overall in Bogey Avoidance. Considering the value price on both sites, he is in play in all formats.
Tournament Update Thread
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.