Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

04/14/2018
Jerry Vanderwoude

Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers and Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/14/18

We already highlighted Max Scherzer, Chris Archer, and Rich Hill in our Saturday picks article. We also highlighted the Boston, Minnesota, and Houston as a popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.

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Pitchers

Corey KluberCorey Kluber FD 11400 DK 12100
Opponent - TOR (Jaime Garcia) Park - CLE
FD - 45.11 DK - 24.84
Chris Sale. Clayton Kershaw. Max Scherzer. They were all dominant pitchers last season, but Corey Kluber ended 2017 with the lowest xFIP among all qualified pitchers in the game (2.52). After a subpar start to the season, the Indians placed Kluber on the DL, and he returned a new man, and possibly with a bionic arm. He ended the season with 18 wins, five complete games, three shutouts, a 0.869 WHIP and 11.71 K/9. He's picking up this season right where he left off. Through three starts CK has thrown 23 innings, allowing four earned runs, on 11 hits while striking out 10.57 batters per nine. Kluber carries a price tag similar to Scherzer, and it's for that reason I like him in GPP's. While Scherzer has the pleasure of facing the Rockies in Nationals Park, Kluber will host the Blue Jays. Toronto has looked slightly improved over last season, and for that reason, Scherzer will be the chalk tonight. Kluber makes for a strong pivot given he's virtually matchup proof. The Indians have the largest money line of the day, opening as -224 favorites, and the Blue Jays, who K 24.8% of the time project for one of the lowest run totals of the day. The one concern with this play will be the weather. Keep an eye on the sky as rain is in the forecast. If the word is this one should play through, however, Kluber is as good a play as you can hope to find on the slate.

Jake ArrietaJake Arrieta FD 8600 DK 14000
Opponent - TB (Chris Archer) Park - TB
FD - 27.12 DK - 13.99
We spotlighted Chris Archer in the picks article, but we can also consider his opponent, Jake Arrieta, at least on FanDuel. While Vegas favors Archer for the win, the money line is nearly split on this game with only 0.2 runs separating the projections. Philly could easily swing the upset here, and if Arrieta can manage to go deep, he could walk away with the win. Arrieta was pulled after four innings in his Phillies debut, allowing just two earned runs on three hits and two walks, picking up five strikeouts in the process. Tampa will throw a righty-heavy lineup at Arrieta, which works in his favor as he's limited right-handed hitters to a .268 wOBA against over his career with his K/9 being split almost evenly from both sides of the plate. While Kluber is a risky play due to the weather, the risks associated with Arrieta amount to how deep you think he may go into the game, and which offense shows up, Philly or Tampa? If it's Philly, then Arrieta is a value pivot that allows for some bigger bats. I'm not touching him on DraftKings though.

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Stacks

Washington Nationals vs. Jon Gray (COL)
Bryce HarperBryce Harper FD 5100 DK 5600
Opponent - COL (Jon Gray) Park - WSH
FD - 13.28 DK - 9.89
Brian GoodwinBrian Goodwin FD 2800 DK 3300
Opponent - COL (Jon Gray) Park - WSH
FD - 10.05 DK - 7.68
Ryan ZimmermanRyan Zimmerman FD 2500 DK 4200
Opponent - COL (Jon Gray) Park - WSH
FD - 10.75 DK - 8.12
Howie KendrickHowie Kendrick FD 3100 DK 3600
Opponent - COL (Jon Gray) Park - WSH
FD - 9.27 DK - 7.21
We alluded to this stack in the picks article spotlighting both Ryan Zimmerman, and Anthony Rendon. Rendon left last night's game early after fouling a ball off his toe and is considered day-to-day so there are other options to consider in the Washington lineup. Today they continue their series with the Rockies in Nationals Park where they come in as -199 favorites projected to score 4.5 runs against right-hander Jon Gray.

Indeed Gray isn't the worst pitcher throwing in the game right now, with a 3.55 xFIP with 9.35 K/9. The 30.5% hard-hit rate is to be expected of anyone that calls Coors Field home. Still, he's no Scherzer or Kluber, and we can easily exploit him against the Washington offense. Despite making most of his starts in Coors Field, Gray sports a hard hit rate 2% higher on the road, and this righty-heavy Washington lineup could cause trouble for him early on with his .329 wOBA against the split. Nationals Park may not be Coors Field, but it is one of the top ten hitters parks in the game, and home to the team with the third most home runs (15) in the game to open the season.

One-third of those home runs belong to Bryce Harper. Harper crushes right-handed pitching with a .403 career wOBA. Harper hits third in this Washington order meaning even when he's kept in the yard, the runs and RBI come with little effort, and his work on the basepath more than makes up the difference from a fantasy perspective, Any Washington stack should be built around Harper. Brian Goodwin has been setting the table for the Nats over the last few games and is priced near minimum across the industry which makes him a tremendous value play to help offset the cost of Harper. If Rendon is cleared to start, he's a top consideration for our Washington stack. If not we can look to Howie Kendrick, who is priced at a slight discount and despite hitting towards the bottom of the order is off to a hot start to the season hitting 15-47 through his first twelve games with five multi-hit efforts. You can round out your Washington stack with Ryan Zimmerman, who is entirely too cheap on FanDuel, but worth considering in a DraftKings stack as well, sandwiched in the heart of a lineup that should do big things today. (Update: Now that the lineup is out, consider replacing Zimmerman with Matt Adams and Rendon with Wilmer Difo)

Cleveland Indians vs. Jaime Garcia (TOR)
Francisco LindorFrancisco Lindor FD 4600 DK 4900
Opponent - TOR (Jaime Garcia) Park - CLE
FD - 11.87 DK - 9.09
Jason KipnisJason Kipnis FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - TOR (Jaime Garcia) Park - CLE
FD - 9.57 DK - 7.31
Jose RamirezJose Ramirez FD 4100 DK 4800
Opponent - TOR (Jaime Garcia) Park - CLE
FD - 11.56 DK - 8.87
Once again, we run into the weather concerns here with the Cleveland Indians, though unlike with Corey Kluber, the bats shouldn't be a major concern if the game is able to play out which is great news considering this Indians lineup has a strong matchup against Jaime Garcia and the Blue Jays. The lifelong Cardinal did a lot of packing and unpacking last season before settling in Toronto where he has opened the season 1-0 through his first two starts. The Indians open up with the best money line of the day, and while that's due in part to Kluber on the hill, it's also because of the bats they will run out to do some damage on Garcia.

The Indians have struggled some to open this season, their .273 team wOBA is the worst in baseball, but this is the same team that ended last season .336 behind only the Astros. It's not all gloom and doom in Cleveland either. They have a collective 14 home runs which are more than half the league, and they've scored 18 runs in just their last three games. If stacking Indians, you have to consider Jose Ramirez. Ignore the .289 wOBA, that's a reflection of his 0-15 start to the campaign. Ramirez leads the tribe with three home runs, two of which have come over the last five games, a stretch during which he's 6-17 with three RBI and four runs scored. It doesn't stop there the entire top to the Indians order has come around over the last few games. Since the start of the series against Detroit earlier this week, Lindor, Kipnis, and Ramirez are a combined 12-60 with three home runs and 11 RBI. On the season the trio is sporting a .336 combined wOBA off of southpaws. Lindor has always been tough on LHP with a .354 wOBA over his career against the split. If you do go with a Cleveland stack, you can round it out with Edwin Encarnacion if he's batting cleanup, or go cheap with a Brandon Guyer or Rajai Davis, but this trio spotlighted here has to be a part of what could prove to be a very sneaky stack for the day.

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2 Visitor Comments

  1. Early… Watch the weather. Already 2 games canceled and Ohio looks to be a mess.

  2. Good job with no main slate picks for FD. DOnt mail it in or anything.

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