Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

04/24/2018
Chris Durell

Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers and Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/24/18

We already highlighted Charlie Morton and Kenta Maeda in our 4/24/18 picks article. We also highlighted the Rockies and Padres as a popular game stack at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.

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Pitchers

Robbie RayRobbie Ray FD 9300 DK 11000
Opponent - PHI (Vince Velasquez) Park - PHI
FD - 34.26 DK - 18.57

I saved Robbie Ray for the GPP pitcher article for a couple reasons today starting with the weather which appears to be fine for the first one to two hours but gets iffy after that with a chance of rain. Then we start looking at the Vegas line and the game is currently set at a pick'em as the Diamondbacks travel to Philadelphia. While he does tend to get into trouble at times with walks, he has enormous upside as he has already struck out 32 batters in his first four starts(13.29 K/9) backed up by a 13.1% swinging strike rate. The Phillies have been better against lefties so far this season(small sample) but have cooled off after a hot start and have struck out at a 26% rate overall in the last 14 days. Charlie Morton and Kenta Maeda will definitely soak up a ton of ownership tonight leaving Robbie Ray lower owned and if he rolls through the Phillies lineup can win you a GPP.

Vince VelasquezVince Velasquez FD 7500 DK 7000
Opponent - ARI (Robbie Ray) Park - PHI
FD - 33.46 DK - 17.29

On the other side of the ball, I think we can also make a case for Velasquez who ranks right at the top of our system from a PTS/$ perspective. While Ray is a highly volatile GPP play, Velasquez gives us a little more safety and can be considered a nice SP2 option for cash games on DraftKings. The safety comes with the fact he doesn't walk many batters(five walks in 21.1 innings) and also provides us with upside with a 10.13 K/9 rate and 10.3% swinging strike rate. Looking at the opponent splits, the Diamondbacks have been much better against southpaws and sit with a 26.1% K rate vs. right-handed pitchers and have been even worse lately striking out over 27% of the time over the last 14 days. Finally, on top of all the stats, he comes to us at a very cheap price on both sites.

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Stacks

Oakland Athletics vs. Cole Hamels(TEX)

Marcus SemienMarcus Semien FD 3700 DK 3700
Opponent - TEX (Cole Hamels) Park - TEX
FD - 12.56 DK - 9.58
Jed LowrieJed Lowrie FD 3800 DK 4500
Opponent - TEX (Cole Hamels) Park - TEX
FD - 10.32 DK - 7.9
Khris DavisKhris Davis FD 4300 DK 4700
Opponent - TEX (Cole Hamels) Park - TEX
FD - 12.39 DK - 9.24

It's funny how fast things change in daily fantasy baseball. It was less than two weeks ago I was recommending Cole Hamels as a GPP pitcher option and while he didn't let me down, I have changed my tune and will be stacking against him tonight. The reason? Well, the primary reason is that he gives a ton of hard contact(42.5% on the season) which has resulted in seven long balls against through five starts. Tonight he will face an Athletics team who has been a Top 3 ranked offense in the early going(.352 wOBA, 123 wRC+) and has been even better lately(.372 wOBA, 136 wRC+ last 14 days). They have been slightly better vs. right-handed pitching but have some nice value plays who have done really well against southpaws as well.

It starts with Marcus Semien who has been the A's primary leadoff hitter and leads the team in runs(20) and has added three long balls and 13 RBI. Jed Lowrie is next on my list as he has been the guy driving runs in this season as he sits second to only Didi Gregorious in RBI with 23 this season. He has also been money against southpaws with a .412 wOBA and 162 wRC+ in 40 plate appearances. Capping off the three-man stack is Khris Davis who hits cleanup for the A's and is coming off back to back 40+ home run seasons. He has already clubbed six early this season and has been productive vs. southpaws with a .386 wOBA and 145 wRC+.

If you are wanting to save even more and go a bit contrarian, you can also consider Mark Canha and Chad Pinder who hit near the bottom of the lineup but both crush lefties with wOBA's around .500 and wRC+'s north of 200. Either way, the matchup is there and the game has the second highest Vegas total in a great hitting environment. Load up on Athletics.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Dillon Peters(MIA)

Chris TaylorChris Taylor FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - MIA (Dillon Peters) Park - LAD
FD - 11.25 DK - 8.67
Corey SeagerCorey Seager FD 3500 DK 4400
Opponent - MIA (Dillon Peters) Park - LAD
FD - 11.76 DK - 8.94
Matt KempMatt Kemp FD 2600 DK 3600
Opponent - MIA (Dillon Peters) Park - LAD
FD - 11.21 DK - 8.52
Kike HernandezKike Hernandez FD 2500 DK 3400
Opponent - MIA (Dillon Peters) Park - LAD
FD - 10.78 DK - 8.16

The Dodgers let me down last night scoring just two runs but I am going back to the well again tonight as they get an even better matchup. In game two of the series, the Marlins will toss Dillon Peters to the bump and he has been borderline terrible this season. After impressing in his first start against the Cubs(6 IP, 0 ER), he has allowed 15 earned runs in his last three starts including four long balls while walking(10) as many as he has struck out(10). On top of that, he has also been giving up over 40% hard contact on the season and sits with a 20% HR/FB rate.

The nice thing about the Dodgers stack is that they are very affordable, especially on FanDuel where three of the four players listed above are under $3K tonight. Corey Seager got the night off last night and should be back in the two hole tonight and should be low owned with his early season struggles but don't be fooled he has a ton of talent and upside. Matt Kemp is my #1 target in this stack as he has crushed lefties(small 22 PA sample) this season to the tune of a .517 wOBA and 238 wRC+. This is one team that switches up the lineup fairly regularly but if Enrique Hernandez is back in the lineup is always a top target against left-handed pitching. Stay tuned for lineups later in the day.

For all my top stacks and a look at some advanced stats and a pitchers model, be sure to grab a copy of my daily cheatsheet.

 

 

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