Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Jerry Vanderwoude

Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers and Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/5/18

We already highlighted Kenta Maeda, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Jameson Taillon in our Saturday picks article. We also highlighted the Dodgers as a popular game stack at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.

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Trevor BauerTrevor Bauer FD 9500 DK 10700
Opponent - NYY (Sonny Gray) Park - NYY
FD - 29.15 DK - 15.14
If you like living dangerously, on the early slate, you can lock in Trevor Bauer against the Yankees. Targeting the Yanks can be daily fantasy suicide, with the likes of Stanton, Sanchez, Judge, and Gardner, hitting against you but with great risk, comes the potential for great reward. The Bombers are favorites to win this afternoons game, but the opening line is NY -125/CLE +115, so Cleveland has a chance. Bauer comes into the game with a 2.45 ERA, 3.85 xFIP, and his 10.26 K/9 is ranked in the top 20 among qualified pitchers. The Yankees have the third best team wOBA in the majors (.339) but they also K at a top ten 24.3% clip. The Yankees will counter Bauer with Sonny Gray, who has struggled against the Red Sox, and Blue Jays, two of the better offenses in the game, Cleveland sits with a .324 team wOBA, and their 31 HR is just one shy of the 32 the Yanks have hit. I have plenty of faith in the tribe to put up runs on Gray, the question we have to ask is, do we feel confident in Bauer limiting the damage against the Yanks while racking up the K's? In large tournaments, that's a risk I'm more than willing to take.

Trevor CahillTrevor Cahill FD 7100 DK 8000
Opponent - BAL (Kevin Gausman) Park - OAK
FD - 32.28 DK - 16.15
On the main slate, if you want to get away from the guys we covered in the picks article, you can turn to Trevor Cahill against the Orioles. Baltimore has been flat out abysmal to start the season, and though they got a key piece of their offense back in the form of Mark Trumbo, he's yet to make any serious impact. Baltimore sits with a collective team wOBA of .280, while only the Marlins are posting worse. They also strike out 25.1% of the time, fourth-most in baseball. Through his first three starts of the season, Cahill has looked impressive, averaging 6.0 IP and 2 ER allowed per start with 9.50 K/9 and just 2.50 BB/9. Vegas has the A's opening as -146 favorites against Kevin Gausman, making Cahill a promising option as an SP2 on DraftKings, with tons of upside on that FanDuel price as well.



Oakland Athletics vs. Kevin Gausman (BAL)
Jed LowrieJed Lowrie FD 4200 DK 4400
Opponent - BAL (Kevin Gausman) Park - OAK
FD - 9.75 DK - 7.46
Khris DavisKhris Davis FD 3600 DK 4600
Opponent - BAL (Kevin Gausman) Park - OAK
FD - 12.23 DK - 9.13
Matt OlsonMatt Olson FD 2700 DK 3900
Opponent - BAL (Kevin Gausman) Park - OAK
FD - 10.64 DK - 7.9

I covered a couple of Oakland bats in the picks article, in the form of Marcus Semien and Matt Joyce. They are not alone, as there are several players we can consider in the Oakland lineup as they take on Kevin Gausman and the Orioles tonight at home. The A's are showing some powerful offensive stuff this year, currently sitting with the fourth best wOBA in the game of .334, while also combining for 41 home runs, the fifth most in the game.

As I noted, Joyce has one of the best walk percentages among outfielders this season and is continuing on pace to match his wOBA from last season, his first in Oakland. While Semien, reasonably priced at a weaker shortstop position has a .316 wOBA. Either of those guys can pair with the trio we have here before us for a powerful stack against the weak Baltimore right-hander. Jedd Lowrie starts us off at second base with a five-game hit streak and three-game multi-hit streak. He homered twice in the series in Seattle before coming home for a 3-5 performance last night. His .435 wOBA is top at the position, while only Ozzie Albies has homered more.

Khris Davis and Matt Olson are two value-priced choices to round out our stack. Davis, who has a .335 wOBA and .246 ISO hit his eighth home run last night off Andrew Cashner in the series opener. The left-handed hitting Olson meanwhile sports a monster .379 wOBA and 141 wRC+ against the split with an ISO over 200 and an OPS approaching .900. I would take one of the guys from the picks article (personally, I'm leaning to Joyce) and pair them with the trio we spotlighted here for a stack with huge upside against Gausman and his 2.08 HR/9 and 4.15 xFIP.

Washington Nationals vs. Vince Velasquez (PHI)
Bryce HarperBryce Harper FD 5100 DK 5800
Opponent - PHI (Vince Velasquez) Park - WSH
FD - 14.44 DK - 10.75
Trea TurnerTrea Turner FD 4300 DK 4900
Opponent - PHI (Vince Velasquez) Park - WSH
FD - 12.34 DK - 9.62
Matt AdamsMatt Adams FD 3300 DK 4100
Opponent - PHI (Vince Velasquez) Park - WSH
FD - 11.06 DK - 8.37
Wilmer DifoWilmer Difo FD 3000 DK 3200
Opponent - PHI (Vince Velasquez) Park - WSH
FD - 7.63 DK - 5.99
I wish the Phillies would see that Vince Velasquez is not an answer in the starting rotation. He'd be a fine piece to the bullpen, and could be a long man if needed, but more often than not, it's his starts when the long man is needed. Velasquez has failed to make it out of the fifth inning in three of his six starts, and got hit up for three or more earned runs in four of those. He's got a career 4.01 xFIP and three wins in his last 21 starts.

I'm not anticipating win four of 22 comes today as the Phillies are in our nation's capital for a weekend set against the Nationals. Washington drove starter Nick Pivetta to the showers, even before the rain delay last night had a chance to, putting up seven runs in the first two innings. Look for more of the same today. We'll start off with the obvious, Bryce Harper. Harper has four home runs under his belt since moving to the leadoff spot four games ago. Two of those came back to back in the first and second innings of last night's game. Harper is just hitting on another level this season with a .432 wOBA, .358 ISO, and 1.072 OPS. If he gets any better than this, we're going to need to contract out a high powered NASA computer to calculate his stats. Hitting behind Bryce will likely be Trea Turner and Matt Adams. Turner would be the team leader on most teams without a Bryce Harper, with the numbers he's putting up this season. A .343 wOBA and .762 OPS are nothing to shy away from, and those numbers get even better against RHP. The same can be said for former Cardinal Adams, who is sporting a career .359 wOBA and .217 ISO against the split through his career (.494/.421 this season).

I'm going to shake things up here and close out the Nationals stack with the nine-hole hitter. Traditionally the pitcher's spot in the NL, Wilmer Difo has found himself batting dead last for the last four games, and a quick glance at his game logs tells you, that isn't necessarily a bad thing. It gives him a chance to get on base for Harper, which can only lead to good things. Through the four games that Difo has hit ninth, he's gone 7-10 with two doubles, a home run, five walks, two RBI, and five runs scored, scoring double-digit FD points in each. Difo is a considerable upside play, priced to help balance out the cost of locking in the top of the Nationals order.





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