Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/13/18
Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.
First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.
Welcome to MLB Sunday. Mother’s Day Baseball! We’re looking at a full 15 games on the day, but five of them were cut from the main slate. That includes Coors Field and it’s 11+ over/under (on FanDuel). We have a couple offenses to focus on, but there are a lot of different ways to go on this slate. We kick things off in Cleveland, where the Indians will host the Royals. Our most expensive option on the board is also our favorite in Corey Kluber. Kluber is one of the obvious three best pitchers in the league and some would argue him as number 1. He’s been exceptional to start the season, allowing a .256 wOBA to lefties and a .238 to righties. You simply don’t get better than this arm. Today, he faces off with the Royals. They’ve ranked 18th in baseball against righties with a team .314 wOBA and near-20% strikeout rate. Sal Perez and Jorge Soler will personally make sure that number eventually gets over 20%. Kluber prefers working at home and Vegas expects him to dominate. He’s the top pitcher on the board and it just comes down to the price and whether or not you can afford him.
If Corey Kluber is a tad bit more expensive than you'd like or you just don't like the spot, James Paxton is a phenomenal pivot. He's expensive on both sites at this point, but it's more than rightfully deserved. He threw a no-hitter in his last start and all eyes will be on that, but it's not even my favorite start of his. He struck out 16 Athletics the game before and 10 Indians a week before that. He's one of the emerging top aces in baseball and has a leash well over 100 pitches, which isn't all that easy to find anymore. He's held a wOBA under .250 against both sides of the plate and is striking out 10+ batters per 9 innings. Today, he gets a solid match-up with the watered down Tigers lineup. When Victor Martinez is in the 3 hole, you know what's going on. They rank 20th against lefties and don't have much pop at all. Paxton is going to strikeout another 8+ batters and be on his way to 6+ innings. That's a floor. I prefer Kluber if you're able to fund the funds, but will have plenty of exposure to both.
Aaron Nola FD 9700 DK 10900
Opponent - NYM (Jacob deGrom) Park - NYM
FD - 37.22 DK - 19.84
It looks like Aaron Nola may have turned a corner. For a guy that's always been a bit unsteady, he's gotten through 7 innings in 6 of his last 7 starts. He hasn't ever been a huge K pitcher, but they've started surfacing this year. He put up 12 K last start against the Giants and is now facing a lackluster Mets squad. They're projected to put up just 3.40 runs by Vegas and Nola has a 6 1/2 K prop. The Mets have some boppers but rank just 17th in the league against righties and strikeout close to 23% of the time. Nola is better at home and has been extremely safe all year long. I like Kluber and Paxton a bit more, but Nola will be on some of my teams in both cash and tournaments. Let's get to the bats!
If you need a catcher, Francisco Cervelli is a guy I love. You can go with the obvious Gary Sanchez or Yasmani Grandal, but you don’t need me to tell you that they’re serviceable plays. We’ll instead focus on the Pirates, who will face off with one of the worst pitchers around in Derek Holland. He allowed a .408 wOBA to righties in 2017 and hasn’t been all that much better in ‘18. Cervelli on the other hand, is a quiet menace to lefties. He’s held a .350 wOBA dating back and will be in the heart of the order. This Pirates team is one I like a lot and should go relatively ignored on such an active slate.
If you’re looking later into the day, Bellinger finally paid off his depressed salary last night with a dinger. He hasn’t been disappointing, but still not the same monster we were witnessing at the end of 2017. That’s not to say he’s bad, as I still look at him the same as I did then. Variance is just a prominent factor in baseball. He’s still holding a .368 wOBA to righties and has as much pop as ever. Today, the Dodgers face off with Luis Castillo, who’s a huge prospect, but struggles against lefties. He’s given up a .411 wOBA so far to lefties and while that’s not sustainable, it shows he does struggle against them. The Dodgers are full of lefties and Bellinger is the lead dog of them all. He’s not on the main slate, but we’ll get to somewhere next. Bellinger is a great play if on your respective slate.
The Astros are going to be one of the offenses we pay a lot of attention to. Facing off with Matt Moore, it's hard not to. Moore has been pitiful against righties for the past few years, but has gotten extremely bad in the last season or so. Since the start of 2017, he's held a 5.63 xFIP and every one of his numbers suggest disaster against right-handers. He now faces one of the more lethal righty lineups around baseball and should struggle a ton. Marwin Gonzalez and Yuli Gurriel are both going to be right in the middle of the order and are in play in all formats. Gonzalez is a bit better against lefties with a .345 combined wOBA, so I prefer him in a vacuum, but Gurriel will have a ton of solid RBI opportunities, so I can get behind either of them. First base is always an interesting position and one you almost have to get right. Both Gonzalez and Gurriel are solid plays in all formats.
Right back to these Astros. To be honest, I could recommend Bregman as well. You can play any of these 'Stros that hit from the right side and are in the top seven of the order. As for Altuve, he's obviously the heartbeat of the offense. He might be passed by Carlos Correa very soon, but Altuve is still the god vs lefties. Since 2017, he's posted a .434 wOBA with a crazy combo of speed and power. He's better at home in Minute Maid Park with the short porch in right field, giving him way more power upside. Matt Moore is an atrocious lefty and is expected to give up a 5+ ERA to righties in '18. His price is up there and it's not an easy spend, but he's a must if you stack the Astros and is excellent as a 1-off as well. If you need to pay down, let's touch on Gleyber Torres.
The Yankees are an interesting team tonight. To start, they face off with Brett Anderson, who obviously shouldn't be pitching in the majors anymore. Aside from looking like a single A pitcher last start, Anderson gave up a .350 wOBA and 5 homers in just 45 innings last year. He now faces off with the New York Yankees in Yankee Stadium. They're expected to put up well over 5 runs and I beg to agree. We didn't, but you can look at Gary Sanchez and Tyler Austin if you're looking to stack. We'll start here with Gleyber Torres, who's the Yankees top prospect and looking very legitimate to start. Aside from the 3 homers, he's posted a .319 average and has been effective against both lefties and righties. I like paying up for Jose Altuve personally, but can get behind Torres if you need savings or want to stack the Yanks. Update: Torres isn't in the lineup Sunday. Eduardo Nunez make an interesting play in the lower price tier.
Carlos Correa FD 4100 DK 5000
Opponent - TEX (Matt Moore) Park - TEX
FD - 13.63 DK - 10.27
If you want to pay up at shortstop, Carlos Correa is a pretty easy choice for me. Against lefties, he's been one of the best hitters in baseball. Since the start of 2017, Correa has posted a .452 wOBA backed up by a 43% hard contact rate and 25% hard contact rate. We've touched on Matt Moore plenty, but he's simply a washed up lefty that's giving up AA numbers in the majors. The Astros are going to have some fun tonight in Houston and Correa is personally my favorite bat in the lineup. He has a bit more power upside than Altuve and will be similar or lesser owned. The Astros are my favorite team to stack on this slate and Correa is my favorite bat in the order. He'll be on close to 100% of my lineups.
We've somehow ignored the Cubs up to this point, but they are more than in play against Lucas Giolito and the Chicago White Sox. The Cubs have been on fire as of late and it seems like they're putting up 10 runs on almost a nightly basis. They now face off with Lucas Giolito, who's supposed to end up as an MLB ace. So far, not so much. He's allowed a .350 wOBA to both sides of the plate and isn't doing a very good job of keeping the ball in play. The Cubbies are as lethal as it gets and while Addison Russell isn't a big banger, he's going to have RBI opportunities and is cheap across both sites. He's posted a .330 wOBA against righties since the start of 2016 and has some pop. I much prefer Carlos Correa if you can get there, but Russell is great in Cubs stacks and serviceable as a stand-alone shortstop
If you're looking to pay up at third base, Josh Donaldson is the best way to do it. Drew Pomeranz isn't a guy you really want to target on the surface, but he hasn't been at all good against righties. He's also returning from the DL recently and hasn't been the same since. Pomeranz is a guy who relies on his 12-6 curve, so it's not hard for him to struggle when that pitch isn't working perfectly. He's allowed a .415 wOBA to righties and while that won't stick, his peripherals put up around a .340. Donaldson is still one of the best hitters in the league against lefties and has 2 HR upside in any game. Since 2017, he's posted a .417 wOBA with as much power as anyone. He's expensive, but not overpriced. He should be pretty low owned and could lead you to the top of a huge tournament.
Right back on a young Yankee. It's hard not to get exposure to this team in every way possible when Brett Anderson is on the mound. Anderson, as we just touched on, is going to mightily struggle for however long and MLB team will give him a chance. In 2017, he gave up a .351 wOBA to righties. He's now looking way worse and going into one of the biggest hitter gauntlets in the majors. As for Andujar individually, he's been all the Yankees have hoped for. His price is still cheap across the industry and he's going to be hitting behind the likes of Stanton, Judge, Gregorious, and Sanchez. The RBI opportunities will be plentiful and the price is very friendly. If you're looking to get exposure to the Yankees, Andujar gives you an easy way to do that while not breaking the bank.
If you have the funds, play Giancarlo Stanton. Not only is he the best power hitter in the league, but he's one of the best all-time hitters against lefties. As someone who isn't a Stanton fan, I can say this by just looking at the numbers. Since the start of 2017, he's posted a .501 wOBA against lefties and has hit 68 total home runs. Brett Anderson is just a left-handed pitching machine to Stanton and isn't going to do anything to confuse him. He's the top candidate on the slate for a home run and will be in every lineup of mine that I can make work. The price is actually pretty fair on both sites and you won't have to sacrifice all that much. Sorry if it seems like cheating, but Stanton is my pick for homer of the night.
Starling Marte FD 4000 DK 4400
Opponent - SF (Derek Holland) Park - SF
FD - 10.47 DK - 8.15
We touched on the Pirates to begin the bats, but have ignored them since. Facing off with Derek Holland, you want to more than pay attention to the righties. Holland is one of the absolute worst pitchers around and has a chronic HR issue to right-handers. If you’re liking these Pirates, Starling Marte is the top dog. He posted a .358 wOBA vs lefties in his last full season and has started this campaign on a nice swing. PNC Park is no hitter haven, but we see a lot of runs there all the time and you can get it out as a righty. I don’t think Derek Holland gets pummeled here, but I see him giving up a few runs to the prominent righties. Marte and Cervelli are my favorites, followed be Freese and Harrison.
We've yet to touch on the Brewers just yet, but that's because they're in Coors Field. I could have touched on a guy at every position. We'll instead just look at the situation here and give you the go-ahead to play anyone hitting 1-8. Realistically, Coors Field has a total over 11 and you can really go anywhere. The game is fortunately on the main slate, so we won't be burdened by the expected run output. Jon Gray will be on the hill for Colorado and is not a bad pitcher at all. In fact, he's not a guy I like to target at all. Anywhere. With that being said, Gray has given up some big games in Coors Field. Yelich has posted a .374 wOBA against righties since the start of last season and gets a huge power boost in this stadium.
Strongly consider Aaron Hicks against the lefty.