Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

06/09/2018
James Davis

Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/10/18

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Pitcher

Max ScherzerMax Scherzer FD 12200 DK 14400
Opponent - SF (Derek Holland) Park - WSH
FD - 49.97 DK - 28.04
There are a few big money options today, but are we really going to be able to turn away from Max? The 13.65 K/9 with less than 2 walks per 9 are just in an entirely different class than your other options tonight. As for the Giants, it's funny - I'd have expected them to be worse against right handed pitching given that they filled out their teams with right handed sluggers from the 1980s, but they've actually put up a wOBA in the top half of the league against northpaws. Still, their 25% K rate is the 4th highest in the league and their 7.1% walk rate is .2% away from being the league's lowest, so you have to figure Scherzer is a high ceiling, high floor option today.

James PaxtonJames Paxton FD 9400 DK 12500
Opponent - TB (Nathan Eovaldi) Park - TB
FD - 42.2 DK - 23.08
Paxton might be just an obvious play on FanDuel at these absurdly cheap prices. The Mariners' lefty has improved upon last season's dramatic improvements, now striking out better than 11 batters per inning and averaging more than six innings per start. The Rays are an average match-up by any definition of the word, but Tampa is an excellent place to pitch, which sweetens the deal quite a bit. Really though, it's just his price on FanDuel that's the obvious difference maker. He's certainly a worse pitcher than Kluber or Scherzer, but $2,000-$3,000 worth? I don't think so.

Corey KluberCorey Kluber FD 11500 DK 13600
Opponent - DET (Artie Lewicki) Park - DET
FD - 41.68 DK - 22.87
While Max is still the highest flying and sexiest option, and Paxton is the cheapest, I don't think it's crazy to look at Kluber for some good old fashion safety. In his last 3 games he's gone 19 and a third innings, struck out 24 batters, and allowed 1 earned run. The game before that he struck out 10 Astros in 7 innings. While his season long K/9 is still around 9, it's been steadily climbing in the last four games. Today he gets an interesting match-up with the Tigers, who are actually a bottom 4 wOBA team against right handed pitching while not striking out very much (they are the 9th hardest team to strike out). Still, Vegas sees Kluber as a heavy favorite, and he looks like a solid option on either site.

Also considered: Ross Stripling, especially as a cheap pitcher two on DraftKings with considerable upside.

First Base/Catcher

Evan GattisEvan Gattis FD 2900 DK 4100
Opponent - TEX (Matt Moore) Park - TEX
FD - 11.79 DK - 8.91
Gattis has been batting 5th against opposing left handers this season, and is priced like a guy who doesn't really play. Gattis certainly has his warts, but the man can still bring the noise against left handed pitching. With more walks than strikeouts against southpaws this season, Gattis should present significant issues for Moore, who combines an inability to strike people out (6.96 K/9) with significant control issues (4.25 BB/9). With a career .497 SLG vs. LHP, he also represents a very serious power threat in an excellent hitters' park in Texas. This is one of those cases where you might even want to run a catcher on FanDuel.

Paul GoldschmidtPaul Goldschmidt FD 4800 DK 5600
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 14.93 DK - 11.15
We have another Coors game, and if you're playing MLB DFS this time of year you know we at least have to address it. Freeland is actually not a terrible pitcher overall, but he has two qualities that make Goldschmidt an excellent play here. First of all, he's left handed, and the D-Backs' slugger has bamboozled left handed pitching to the tune of a 1.155 OPS even in a season where his stats are down overall. Freeland also happens to not strike anyone out, which means Goldschmidt's biggest weakness this season will be somewhat mitigated. Goldschmidt having a bad start to the year means we are getting him at non-Coors prices in a Coors game, and he looks like a fantastic option here.

Mitch MorelandMitch Moreland FD 3400 DK 4600
Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - BOS
FD - 11.84 DK - 8.93
A solid platoon option for both cash games and big tournaments, Moreland has what will wind up being an underratedly good match-up for today's slate. Lopez has gotten even worse than he was during last year's terrible campaign. He's striking out around 6 batters per 9 innings while walking almost 4. He's generating ground-balls on just 35% of the balls put in play off oof him, which means we have home run upside through the roof as well. Moreland has quite simply been excellent this season, posting an astounding .301 ISO and nearly a 1k OPS this season. Throw in the great hitters' park in Boston and this looks like a great spot from top to bottom.

Also considered: Justin Smoak.

Second Base

Jose AltuveJose Altuve FD 4500 DK 4900
Opponent - TEX (Matt Moore) Park - TEX
FD - 16.29 DK - 12.6
You can start getting comfortable reading Astros' write-ups, as these guys are just another in a long line of hard hitting teams with great match-ups today. Our lineup optimizer doesn't tend to prioritize Altuve on any given night, but it's worth noting that Altuve is an underrated platoon guy, with a wOBA almost .100 points higher against left handed pitching over the course of his career. A guy who already makes absurdly hard contact such a high percentage of the time should be one of the higher floor plays on the slate, and it might finally be a day where it's worth it to prioritize him.

DJ LeMahieuDJ LeMahieu FD 3900 DK 4600
Opponent - ARI (Zack Godley) Park - COL
FD - 13.18 DK - 10.3
After Altuve, second base gets pretty ugly today. LeMahieu is mostly in play because he's batting leadoff right now, and this game is in Coors. LeMahieu is better against left handed pitching, but only by about .070 OPS over the course of his career. Godley isn't a great pitcher, but he's not terrible either. He has command issues, which could certainly punish him in the unforgiving Coors. Really, this play comes down to what I wrote earlier - DJ is cheap, the game is in Coors, and 2B is brutal. I think he's likely in play regardless of the format you play in.

Shortstop

Trea TurnerTrea Turner FD 4100 DK 4600
Opponent - SF (Derek Holland) Park - WSH
FD - 12.86 DK - 10.03
First things first, I'm listing Turner ahead of Correa mostly because it's boring to keep writing about hitters with the same exact match-up. With a gun to my head I'm going to play Correa, who is both projected for more points and costs less on FanDuel. The case for Turner as an off-beat alternative is interesting, though. We don't often think of elite steals guys as having the same upside as big home run hitters, but Turner is a legit 15/50 HR/SB threat that can actually just give you both in any given game. Today he'll likely be batting lead-off against Derek Holland, who has improved a little bit this season, but is still a well below league average pitcher with his 4.72 xFIP.

Carlos CorreaCarlos Correa FD 3800 DK 4700
Opponent - TEX (Matt Moore) Park - TEX
FD - 16.12 DK - 12.14
So this one is boring but ultimately will likely be the overwhelming chalk at the position. I've already presented the case against Moore, but Correa is looking something like a mandatory part of cash game lineups from where I am sitting. The OPS is down as a whole this season, but Correa still has an OPS .100 points higher against left handed pitching this year, and he gets a very favorable park and pitcher match-up with Moore in Texas. For cash games I think you just play him without thinking about it very much.

Keep an eye on Nick Ahmed. He will often bat second against left handed pitchers, and if he is in there against the lefty Kyle Freeland he could be an excellent value on both sites.

Third Base

Anthony RendonAnthony Rendon FD 3700 DK 3900
Opponent - SF (Derek Holland) Park - WSH
FD - 12.93 DK - 9.75
While Trea Turner might not be chalk at the shortstop position, Anthony Rendon could very well be at third base. He's not an exciting upside play as a player with little power and almost no speed, but he's still in a nearly ideal situation with the left handed Holland. Rendon has an .800+ OPS this season in spite of running about .15-.25 points below his expected BABIP levels, and like Altuve he's something of a sneaky platoon guy. His .883 career OPS against lefties is almost .100 points better than his number against righties, and getting him here at affordable prices against a truly bad left handed pitcher just looks like an excellent spot.

Justin TurnerJustin Turner FD 3200 DK 3700
Opponent - ATL (Sean Newcomb) Park - LAD
FD - 10.87 DK - 8.25
I'm also keeping a close eye on Justin Turner's situation, though. He will bat 2nd against the left hander Newcomb, which should mean a significant rise in opportunity for him. It's easy to forget this based on his inauspicious start to the season, but Turner was sort of an offensive machine last season, posting a .945 OPS with 21 homers and 7 steals. His approach this season looks even better, as he's walked in 10% of his plate appearances and struck out in just 8% of them. Newcomb is actually a promising prospect that is striking out nearly a batter per inning, but his 4.3 BB/9 suggests he should have difficulty with Turner's patient approach. I think Turner's a fine play in all formats.

Also considered: Alex Bregman and Matt Carpenter, both of whom have excellent match-ups.

Outfield

George SpringerGeorge Springer FD 4100 DK 5100
Opponent - TEX (Matt Moore) Park - TEX
FD - 17.27 DK - 12.99
More Astros that are too cheap for their opportunity in a great spot against a bad lefty in a great park. Can't rewrite the same things 14 times, so I hope you'll forgive me.

Curtis GrandersonCurtis Granderson FD 2800 DK 3600
Opponent - BAL (Alex Cobb) Park - TOR
FD - 12.33 DK - 9.23
Granderson has been batting lead off against right handed pitchers, and is still far too cheap for his opportunity. Granderson will always feel risky thanks to the low batting average and 30% K rate, but the 16% walk rate and power upside tends to make up for it. I get it if people are fatigued by laying him cash game, and it's painful when the opposing team brings in a good lefty out of the bullpen, but I'm still a buyer here.

Tommy PhamTommy Pham FD 3500 DK 4500
Opponent - CIN (Anthony DeSclafani) Park - CIN
FD - 12.83 DK - 9.65
Here's the first representative from one of those "bridesmaid" stacks - you know, the ones who are second best and aren't getting a lot of the fanfare. Well the Cardinals are sitting at about 4.6 implied runs today as far as Vegas is concerned, and somebody has to go out there and score all those runs. Why not Tommy Pham? He's batting second, which means he's seeing plenty of opportunity, and he's on track for another 20/20 campaign on the back of his blistering speed. Pham is interesting because if you can get him in match-ups where he's less likely to strike out, he's one of the highest floor players around. He'll sport huge BABIP figures thanks to his speed, and he'll still bases and boost his fantasy totals when he gets on base. Desclafani missed all of 2017 with an injury, and before that he was a slightly below league average pitcher without real put-away stuff. I hope that he's feeling better now, but I'm certainly not going to avoid him in MLB DFS.

Charlie BlackmonCharlie Blackmon FD 4800 DK 5800
Opponent - ARI (Zack Godley) Park - COL
FD - 16.58 DK - 12.57
Another obligatory Rockies player to round this one out. I'm not sure how many of these guys you can pay up for, but even in a relatively tough match-up with Zach Godley our projection system is suggesting that you can pay up for Coors guys today. A day after the Coors game managed 19 runs you can expect this one to be pretty chalky, but if you're going in this direction it can't hurt to take Blackmon on the positive side of his platoon split.

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3 Visitor Comments

  1. I appreciate your content helpsclarify a direction

  2. Yes direction. Hey buddy you get paid for this? Cause im looking for a job

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