Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

06/09/2018
Jerry Vanderwoude

Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers and Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/9/18

We already highlighted Jon Lester and Charlie Morton in our Saturday picks article. We also highlighted the Astros and the game in Coors Field as popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.

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Pitchers

David PriceDavid Price FD 8000 DK 9200
Opponent - CHW (Carlos Rodon) Park - BOS
FD - 36.4 DK - 19.66
Both Blake Snell and Jon Lester are in good spots today in positive matchups with solid win projections, but neither comes close to David Price of the Red Sox. Boston is far and away the favorite of the day with a strong -230 opening line against the White Sox. It's been a roller coaster season for Price, and he's posting a 4.24 xFIP, second highest of his career. He has settled in nicely however over his last several contests, surrendering three runs or less in each of his last five starts. The White Sox have a poor .300 combined team wOBA against southpaws this season, ranked seventh worst in the majors, striking out at a horrible 27.7% clip. The risk with Price lies in the endurance. He hasn't gone deep often, failing to make it out of the sixth in six of his 12 starts this year. If you think he can go deep Price is a fantastic option with tons of upside at a reasonable cost.

Jake ArrietaJake Arrieta FD 8300 DK 7800
Opponent - MIL (Brent Suter) Park - PHI
FD - 29.87 DK - 15.21
The Phillies are hosting the Brewers for a weekend series in south Philadelphia. Milwaukee put a hurting on Vince Velasquez last night and then continued beating on the Phillies pen once Velasquez was retired. Philly will look to bounce back and even the series this afternoon with Jake Arrieta on the hill. Arrieta has been solid in his first season with the Phillies, posting a 3.92 xFIP. Before giving up five runs to the Giants last week, Arrieta had allowed just three earned runs total over his five previous starts. Milwaukee has an average .318 combined team wOBA with a 97 wRC+ against RHP and strikeout 24.6% of the time against the split providing a boost for Arrieta who is striking out two full batters less than he has in the past two seasons. Vegas likes the Phillies as -125 favorites with the brew crew projecting for just 3.8 runs if you think Arrieta can limit the damage and pick up some K's along the way he could be a sneaky separation play. Price feels a little safer, and I'd consider him in all formats, Arrieta will be strictly a GPP play for me.

Stacks

Oakland Athletics vs. Danny Duffy (KC)
Jed LowrieJed Lowrie FD 3400 DK 4400
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - OAK
FD - 9.85 DK - 7.54
Khris DavisKhris Davis FD 4000 DK 4900
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - OAK
FD - 11.82 DK - 8.82
Matt OlsonMatt Olson FD 3800 DK 4500
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - OAK
FD - 9.23 DK - 6.87

We covered the Astros quite extensively in the picks article, along with several players from the Coors Field game, so we're going to look at the early slate for both of our stacks today. First up we have the A's hosting the Royals in Oakland. It's going to be cloudy in Oakland today, with no precipitation in the forecast and a strong wind blowing out to the right at 14 MPH.

That wind could spell trouble for Danny Duffy. The Royals southpaw has struggled with the long ball this season, allowing a mind-blowing 2.07 HR/9 and a 39.2% hard-hit rate. He's posting a career-high 5.58 xFIP and walking nearly as many batters per nine as he strikes out. He's at his worst against right-handed hitters, and that's where we're going to hit him from the hardest.

I gave you Marcus Semien in the picks article. Semien does in fact hit from the right side and, of course, we can consider him as a fourth bat in our stack. Also, we have Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, and Matt Olson. Olson is a left-handed hitter, but he along with the other two lead Oakland in hitting against southpaws this season, Olson has a .367 wOBA against lefties and in total has 13 home runs on the season. That's second on the team to only Khris Davis who has 15. Davis has .360 wOBA against the split with a .848 OPS and an ISO approaching .300. Lowrie leads Oakland with a .367 wOBA against the split. He's posting a career-high slash line this year of .294/.359/.482. This trio is the reason Oakland has a top ten .319 team wOBA against LHP this season with the sixth most home runs (59) off of Lefties and should produce strong fantasy production today against Duffy.

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Cleveland Indians vs. Mike Fiers (DET)
Francisco LindorFrancisco Lindor FD 4400 DK 5100
Opponent - DET (Mike Fiers) Park - DET
FD - 13.76 DK - 10.54
Michael BrantleyMichael Brantley FD 4500 DK 4800
Opponent - DET (Mike Fiers) Park - DET
FD - 12.94 DK - 9.91
Jose RamirezJose Ramirez FD 5200 DK 5500
Opponent - DET (Mike Fiers) Park - DET
FD - 13.55 DK - 10.39

The Red Sox lead the early slate with an opening implied run line of 5.6, and I feel they will be somewhat chalky against Carlos Rodon making his 2018 debut, so I am going to go to the next highest implied run total of 5.4 for the Cleveland Indians. The Indians are in Detroit this weekend and will face the Tigers, Mike Fiers, this afternoon. There's a potential for light rain in this one, so be sure to check the weather, though as of this writing it doesn't look to be anything too troublesome. Winds will be blowing in from left at 10 MPH.

Mike Fiers is in his first season in Detroit after spending a couple of seasons in Houston, and things aren't going too well. His 4.83 xFIP is the highest since his rookie campaign, and he's striking out a career-low 6.27/9. The hard-hit rate sits at 35.5%, and that has led to a troublesome 1.79 HR/9. Today he faces a Cleveland team posting the fifth best-combined wOBA against RHP this season (.326) with the third most home runs against the split (65).

Jose Ramirez leads the team with 16 of those home runs, a .454 wOBA, and walks an elite 16% of the time against the split. Francisco Lindor has a .369 wOBA against RHP and is not far of with 11 HR. Michael Brantley (.409 wOBA, .973 OPS, .246 ISO vs. RHP) is currently in the midst of a four-game hitting streak and has been on base in 24 of his last 25 games. He doesn't have the power upside of the other two, but he strikes out less than 10% of the time and walks nearly as often, so the patience makes up for the lack of power and pays off quite often in his favor. We can pair this core group with Yonder Alonso, who I mentioned in the picks article or Edwin Encarnacion in the cleanup spot. For value lock in Lonnie Chisenhall at the bottom of the order as a contrarian option.

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image sources

  • David_Price_on_August_17,_2016: By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

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