Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/27/18
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After struggling in his first three starts of the season, MadBum returned to form in his last start holding the Padres to three hits over eight innings while recording eight strikeouts. The biggest thing was that his curveball was very effective and he used it a season-high 25% of the time. He gets an interesting matchup tonight against a Rockies team who does hit lefties well but struggles on the road with a .296 wOBA and 84 wRC+. Better get on board the MadBum train now as his price will once again reach the elite tier if he has another good start. Considering the price, he is a great play in all formats tonight, especially on FanDuel under $10K.
After struggling to a terrible 5.07 ERA, 4.35 xFIp in 2017, Kyle Gibson has been sneaky good this year for fantasy despite the lack of wins. He is still struggling with the free passes(3.96 BB/9) but has made big strides with swing and misses as he is striking out just under a batter per inning with a career-high 11% swinging strike rate. He also comes in red-hot lately holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in five straight starts while averaging 6.5 innings per start. Tonight he gets a terrific matchup against the White Sox who rank 24th in wOBA(.304), 22nd in wRC+(93), and strike out 25% of the time vs. right-handed pitching. Considering the value price on both sites, Gibson is another pitcher we can trust in all formats tonight.
The pitch count always seems to be an issue with Wood but his price has come down once again which does take some concern out of the equation. The good news is that he has put together back to back solid starts allowing just three earned runs over 11.2 innings with nine strikeouts. He has given up four or more earned runs four times this season but on the flip side, has held opponents to two or fewer in 10 starts and sits with an xFIP(3.40) that is close to a full run lower than his ERA(4.13). The Dodgers open as -145 favorites in the pitcher-friendly confines of Dodger Stadium against a Cubs team that has been struggling losing five straight going into Tuesday night. He is definitely in the cash game conversation on DraftKings tonight if you are looking for value and an upgrade in your bats.
There are teams with more implied runs at this point but one team I will be targeting heavily tonight will be the Diamondbacks. The park is a downgrade from Chase Field but the matchup makes up for it as they will face Wei-Yen Chen who is coming off a nine hit, seven earned run performance against the Rockies and sits with a 6.70 ERA, 5.66 xFIP on the season and has given up 10 home runs in 11 starts. He has held lefties to a .298 wOBA this season but really struggled against righties giving up a .398 wOBA and eight of those 10 home runs. This is an elite matchup for Goldy who comes in with a .465 wOBA, 197 wRC+, and 1.132 OPS against left-handed pitchers. The price is up there but definitely worth spending up for as your top bat tonight in all formats.
Whether you are looking to save some salary at the position in cash games or fade Goldy in GPP's, Ryon Healy should be on your radar tonight. The Mariners are currently sitting with the third-highest implied runs on the main slate in a plus matchup vs. Alex Cobb and the Orioles. Cobb has been much worse against lefty bats but still hasn't been great against righties giving up a .368 wOBA and .537 Slugging % and is prone to the blowup game with six starts where he has given up five or more earned runs. Looking at Healy's splits, he has been slightly better against righties when looking at the power numbers as he has hit 10 of his 14 home runs in the split.
Also consider A.J. Ellis(SD) as a punt catcher who has strong splits vs. left-handed pitching
I swear that the entire article won't be made up of Diamondbacks and Mariners but they were the first teams I picked out and it just so happened my top plays on their teams come at first and second. I talked about Alex Cobb's splits above with Healy as he has been terrible against lefties with a .414 wOBA and .594 Slugging % against so we best give some attention to Dee Gordon. He is the spark plug at the top of the order and comes went into Tuesday night red-hot with hits in 12 of his last 13 games with six multi-hit efforts and nine runs scored. He doesn't walk much but sits with a decent .286 average on the season and also adds a huge speed element and sits third in the league with 20 stolen bases. Another Mariner that is safe in all formats tonight.
I talked about the matchup for the Diamondbacks above and Ketel Marte is close to an every lineup guy more for me tonight given the low to mid $3K price tag on both sites. He is a switch hitter with strong splits against southpaw pitching as he enters tonight with a .296 average, .366 wOBA, and 131 wRC+ against lefties. Marte has also been very consistent in the month of June with a .303/.349/.671 slash line with five doubles, four triples, five home runs and 18 RBI.
Also consider Gleyber Torres(NYY), especially if he is back in the top five of the lineup
The Red Sox lead all teams in implied runs tonight and while the price is near its highest point on DraftKings, Bogaerts has seen his salary come down on FanDuel lately. The average(.279) isn't quite where it was in 2015 and 2016 where he hit .320 and .294 but the power numbers have risen as he already has 12 home runs and 44 RBI for a career-high .842 OPS and comes in with hits in 20 of his last 25 games. It also doesn't hurt that he gets to hit behind Benintendi, Betts, and Martinez and while the matchup doesn't completely stand out vs. Andrew Heaney, Bogaerts can be considered in all formats with the absence of an elite priced pitcher tonight.
Scott Kingery FD 2400 DK 3000
Opponent - NYY (Luis Cessa) Park - PHI
FD - 8.18 DK - 6.16
Kingery is nothing more than a punt play to help get some of the huge bats in your lineups tonight. He has struggled to a .224 average on the season but comes into tonight with a seven-game hit streak including two hits last night against the tough Luis Severino. Tonight he faces Luis Cessa who is making his first start of the season after four relief appearances and in five starts last year gave up 14 earned runs(five home runs). Considering the low price and abundance of elite bats on the slate, Kingery can be considered in all formats.
Also consider Didi Gregorius(NYY) who has made his way back up in the Yankee lineup
Eduardo Escobar FD 3600 DK 4700
Opponent - CHW (James Shields) Park - CHW
FD - 12.2 DK - 9.35
We can't go a full article on James Shields day without targeting against him especially considering the Twins sit inside the Top 5 of implied runs on the main slate. Escobar is a switch hitter who has been much more effective against right-handed pitching this season with a .414 wOBA, 165 wRC, and .328 ISO. Those numbers have helped elevate him to having a career year so far with a .293/.346/.563 slash line with 12 home runs, 48 RBI, and 35 runs scored already. He should be able to add to those numbers against Shields who has been less than impressive with a 4.59 ERA, 5.19 xFIP and has given up eight home runs in his last five starts.
At $4K on DraftKings, I would only consider using Villanueva in GPP formats but on FanDuel under $3K, he is in play in all formats tonight. By no means are the Padres a very good offense but they are much better against left-handed pitching and it's due to hitters like Villanueva who comes in with a .487 wOBA, 217 wRC+, and ridiculous .479 ISO in this split with 11 of his 16 home runs. He will face Mike Minor who has been good lately allowing just three earned runs in his last two starts but overall has been pretty bad with a 5.06 ERA and 4.57 xFIP on the season.
Also consider Matt Carpenter(STL) who leads off and has been much better in June with a .279/.374/.558 slash line
I wanted to get multiple Red Sox bats into the article tonight and it was close between Betts and Martinez but the discount from Betts enormous $6K price tag on DraftKings could be huge tonight. You really can't go wrong with Martinez, however, as he continues to rake in June with a .346/.433/.590 slash line with five long balls, 13 RBI, and 17 runs scored. He also crushes left-handed pitching to the tune of a .459 wOBA, 190 wRC+, and .362 ISO since the start of the 2017 season. I don't think we need to go this route for cash games but he makes a high upside GPP play in a Red Sox stack tonight.
Denard Span FD 2700 DK 4300
Opponent - BAL (Alex Cobb) Park - BAL
FD - 8.51 DK - 6.62
The price is a little steep for my liking in cash games on DraftKings but on FanDuel Span is an excellent value play tonight in a plus matchup. His average(.259) is nothing to write home about but he has been getting on base very consistently with a .357 OBP on the season and went into Tuesday night with hits in three straight and four of his last five games. What really stood out to me with this pick is that he will be facing Alex Cobb who I mentioned with Healy has struggled with the blowup game and has really had issues with left-handed bats giving up a .414 wOBA and .594 Slugging % in that split. At times, Span has made his made up into the top half of the lineup and if that is the case tonight his value will go even higher.
If you are looking for value on DraftKings to help fit two of the top pitchers or some big bats, don't overlook Gorkys Hernandez of the Giants. He has been slightly better against righties but still above average against southpaws with a .326 wOBA and 108 wRC+. He has also spent each of the last four games hitting in the leadoff spot and went into Tuesday night with hits in three straight games with three doubles and a home run. Provided he is back in that role again tonight, he is a great play in all formats.