Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/28/18
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I am not quite ready to jump back on the Kershaw train and Greinke is only available on the all-day slate so I am going to be rolling with Jon Gray on today's early slate. He is coming off a dominant performance at home in Coors where he allowed just one earned run to the Marlins while striking out a season-high 12 batters. Through 16 starts, he has a poor 5.52 ERA but the xFIP(2.82) is much better and 2.5 runs lower while he has a very unsustainable .379 BABIP. Even more good news as the upside is sky-high as he has struck out double digits four times and sits with an elite 11.45 K/9 and 13.5% swinging strike rate. He has had some issues with the Giants this season but they are currently struggling with a .281 wOBA and 78 wRC+ over the last 14 days and do strike out 24% of the time vs. right-handed pitching. All things considered, he is my top pitcher on the early slate in all formats.
On the main slate, I there are two intriguing options at the top and seeing as both the Nationals and Ray both rank in the bottom half of the league against righties, I will take the pitcher with the discount who gets the better pitchers park tonight. McCullers has a couple blowup games on his resume this season but overall has been good holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 11 of his 16 starts and sits with a 3.82 ERA and 3.47 xFIP. Not only does he have a nice floor but upside as well with a 9.45 K/9 and 12.7% swinging strike rate. The matchup also stands out at the Rays not only K 22.7% vs. righties but have also struggled a ton lately with a .292 wOBA, 86 wRC+ and whopping 27% K rate over the last 14 days. Lock McCullers into your lineup in all formats on this small four-game slate.
I wrote about him yesterday as a value play at the position and as I write this he has already gone deep off Alex Cobb. I was already planning on going back to the well on Thursday as he gets another nice matchup vs. Jimmy Yacabonis who was recalled to make a start after Dylan Bundy was placed on the DL. He has made two relief appearances for the Orioles this season walking five and striking out just one while allowing four earned runs in 2.1 innings. Hw was equally as bad last year walking over six per nine while recording a 6.65 xFIP in 14 appearances. He isn't likely to go deep as he only exceeded 75 pitches once in AAA this season but is only good news for the M's as the Orioles bullpen is near the bottom of the league in both ERA(4.35) and xFIP(4.60) this season. Healy doesn't hit for a high average(.249) but has a ton of power upside(15 HR) making him a nice value target in all formats, especially on FanDuel in the mid $2K range.
Catcher Consideration: Tom Murphy(COL)
The Brewers are in a good spot tonight and currently sit with the third-highest implied runs on the slate. If you have the salary to pay up, Jesus Aguilar is a top target as he has been arguably the best hitter on the team as he enters tonight with a .302/.361/.615 slash line with a team-high 18 home runs and 52 RBI. He comes in red-hot with hits in eight of his last nine starts including five multi-hit efforts and seven long balls. Brad Miller, on the other hand, has been a super utility player for the Brewers playing first, second, and shortstop lately and if he gets a start he makes a nice value play on a small slate.
Also Consider: Mitch Moreland(BOS)
The Mariners have the highest implied runs of the early slate so it makes sense to stack them up today and if you are looking for a cash game target, Dee Gordon is at the top of the list. He hits leadoff and like I mentioned above with Healy, Yacabonis has had some serious control issues in his time in the majors which is great for Gordon as all he needs is to get on base a few times as he can use his speed to steal bases and score runs to hit value. He has been doing so very consistently lately as he entered Wednesday with hits in 13 of his last 14 games with 10 runs scored.
Also Consider: Brian Dozier(MIN)
Gennett extended his hit streak to 10 games yesterday and now has hits in 20 of his last 22 games to push his average up to .336 on the season which sits Top 5 in the league. He is also getting on base at an elite rate with a .375 OBP and leads the Reds with 44 runs and sits second with 13 home runs and 53 RBI. The matchup is not the greatest as Junior Guerra has been good all season with a 2.82 ERA but he does have some regression in his future with walking over 3.5 batters per nine and sits with a 4.24 xFIP while giving up just over 40% hard contact. Provided we only have four games on the main slate, Gennett is an excellent target in all formats.
Also Consider: Jonathan Villar(MIL) as a value play
Kike Hernandez FD 3000 DK 3600
Opponent - CHC (Jose Quintana) Park - LAD
FD - 10.28 DK - 7.78
If you are looking for value, there is no better spot to get it than the shortstop position today. Anytime Hernandez is going up against a left-handed pitcher he is in play as he not only gets a bump up the lineup but also excels in the split with a .352 wOBA, 126 wRC+, and .823 OPS. He has also been consistent lately as he went into Wednesday night with hits in three straight and 12 of his last 14 games. He will face Jose Quintana who has been very inconsistent this season giving up four or more earned runs in six starts and sits with a 4.26 ERA, 4.13 xFIP and has given up 11 home runs(14.5% HR/FB rate). All things considered, Hernandez is a great one-off value play today to help get some big bats in your lineup on this smaller slate.
Also Consider: Tim Anderson(CWS)
On a small slate, we are going to need a couple value plays to get to the expensive Red Sox, Astros, and Brewers bats and like I mentioned with Hernandez above there is no better place than shortstop tonight. Kingery isn't going to blow us away in any one area as he sits with a low .229 average and sub-.300 OBP but he has been consistent(for the price) lately with hits in eight straight and 11 of his last 13 games. Considering the punt price on both sites, Kingery is in play in all formats tonight.
Also Consider: Andrelton Simmons(LAA)
The Twins are a close second in implied runs today and it makes sense as they face one of the worst pitchers in the league this season. Lucas Giolito has given up four or more earned runs in three straight and five of his last six starts and now sits with a very poor 7.01 ERA, 6.37 xFIP and has walked as many batters as he has struck out. The splits are even more exciting in this matchup as Giolito has given up a hefty .403 wOBA and .510 Slugging % to left-handed bats. The Twins sits in the bottom half of the league against righties overall but they have two hitters, one of which is Escobar, who have a wOBA over .410, wRC+ over 160, and ISO over .275 in the split. It would be wise to get some exposure to the Twins in all formats today.
Also Consider: Yolmer Sanchez(CWS)
With the way pitching is shaping up, the Red Sox are going to be tough to fit tonight. One bat we can look closely at is Rafael Devers who is somewhat discounted on this small slate and while he hasn't been as consistent as his stint last year, he has flashed some upside lately with 15 hits in his last 20 games including six multi-hit efforts, seven doubles, and three home runs. He faces a pitcher in Jaime Barria who has not been going deep into games and while he has been decent with a 3.40 ERA, he has allowed nine home runs in his 10 starts. All things considered, Devers deserves our attention in all formats tonight to get exposure to the powerful Red Sox.
Also Consider: Alex Bregman(HOU)
I talked about targeting the Twins above with Escobar and also mentioned they have two hitters who have absolutely destroyed right-handed pitching this season. The second is Eddie Rosario who entered Wednesday night with an elite .416 wOBA, 166 wRC+, .286 ISO, and .992 OPS against righties. Making the rising price more tolerable tonight is the fact he faces off against Lucas Giolito who has been a gas can all season and even worse against left-handed batters(.403 wOBA, .510 SLG against). He is in play on DraftKings as a GPP play at $5,500 but he and Escobar make excellent targets in all formats on FanDuel in the mid $3K range.
After a very slow start to the season, Adam Jones has been a very consistent option since the start of May with a .320 average and .353 on-base percentage. The Orioles are home dogs today but the game has the highest total(9.5) of the slate so they should be able to scrape some runs together off Mike Leake who has displayed some reverse splits this season giving up a .336 wOBA, .474 SLG to right-handed batters. The thing that draws me to Jones the most today is the fact he comes with a value price, especially on FanDuel. He is an outfielder I will be targeting in all formats to help get the Mariners and Twins into my lineups.
Also Consider: Stephen Piscotty(OAK)
This game could provide a ton of offense and another Reds bat I am targeting is Scot Schebler in the outfield. He has been solid all season(.284) but has been even better since taking over the leadoff role in early June as he has a .323/.382/.565 slash line with hits in 18 of those 19 games. I mentioned above with Gennett that the matchup isn't ideal as Guerra has been solid this year but has some regression coming and has given up a 40% hard contact rate on the season.