Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Jerry Vanderwoude

Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers and Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/7/18

We already highlighted Charlie Morton, James Paxton and Max Scherzer in our Saturday 7/7/18 picks article. We also highlighted the Red Sox and Brewers as popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.

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Blake SnellBlake Snell FD 9900 DK 12700
Opponent - NYM (Steven Matz) Park - NYM
FD - 37.72 DK - 19.87
Snell is the third most expensive arm on DraftKings today, and I'm not completely sure I'm sold on that price tag when we can get Morton and Paxton without as much salary commitment. On FanDuel for less than $10K however, I am all in on Snell. Especially in Citi Field against the Mets, who hold the second lowest team wOBA against southpaws (.280) while striking out second most against the split (26% of the time). Snell has certainly proven himself worthy of our consideration, allowing one run or less in every game in an 8 game stretch since May 24th. Snell is backing up a 2.24 ERA with a 3.54 xFIP while striking out an elite 10.19 batters per nine. He's one of only five pitchers with more than ten wins at this point and is on pace to post career best numbers in every meaningful category here in his third season. Snell is a superb option in a perfect matchup and for that FanDuel price, he has upside for days.

Robbie RayRobbie Ray FD 9000 DK 9200
Opponent - SD (Tyson Ross) Park - ARI
FD - 37.38 DK - 20.5
I mentioned in the picks article that there are several good arms on the short four-game main slate, and I meant it. In addition to Scherzer, who I recommended for cash, we have Ross Stripling, David Price, and my favorite of the bunch, Robbie Ray. Ray missed nearly two months with an oblique strain. In two starts since his return, Ray shut down the Marlins through six and then got rocked by the Cardinals for six runs in five innings. Today he sees a phenomenal matchup against the Padres who like the Mets are terrible against left-handed pitching. Their .296 team wOBA is fifth lowest in baseball, and they strikeout third-most against the split (24.1%). The DBacks are -170 favorites and the Padres project for just 3.5 runs. Through his eight starts this year Ray is countering a 4.89 ERA with a 3.39 xFIP while striking out a ridiculous 13.50/9. I wouldn't go there in cash as Ray has had control issues, and has had some trouble with the long ball at home as well. As a tournament play, however, I'm all in on Ray.



Detroit Tigers vs. Cole Hamels (TEX)
Nicholas CastellanosNicholas Castellanos FD 3900 DK 5000
Opponent - TEX (Cole Hamels) Park - DET
FD - 11.63 DK - 8.9
Jeimer CandelarioJeimer Candelario FD 3000 DK 3800
Opponent - TEX (Cole Hamels) Park - DET
FD - 9.84 DK - 7.49
John HicksJohn Hicks FD 2800 DK 3500
Opponent - TEX (Cole Hamels) Park - DET
FD - 7.8 DK - 6.05
Victor MartinezVictor Martinez FD 2200 DK 3000
Opponent - TEX (Cole Hamels) Park - DET
FD - 9.43 DK - 7.24

We looked at a pair of Rangers in this game against Mike Fiers in the picks article, but there is plenty to like about the Tigers today as well when they step into the box against Cole Hamels. Although the Rangers are the favorites this afternoon, both teams project for over four runs and face pitchers who have been around the block with their best days clearly behind them. It's looking to be clear and warm in Detroit today with a mild wind blowing in from left-center.

Cole Hamels hits the hill today with an xFIP over 4.00 for the second straight season, and his 44.1% hard-hit rate is the third highest in baseball this season. While his strikeout stuff is back on track, (over 9 K/9 for the first time since 2015), he's walked over three batters per nine each year since moving to Texas, and this season is giving up home runs at a career-high rate.

Hamels' splits have been relatively even throughout his career, but we'll hit him hard from the left with a Tigers lineup that has the seventh highest wOBA in the majors against southpaws. Nicholas Castellanos leads the way with a .492 wOBA against the split this year, and a nearly as impressive career .362 mark. He leads the Tigers with 14 home runs this year. Coming up second is switch-hitting Jeimer Candelario with 12 bombs, and a career .377 wOBA against lefties. We'll round out our stack with John Hicks, and Victor Martinez, two value plays who sit among the top point per dollar plays in out projection system today.

Washington Nationals vs. Wei-Yin Chen (MIA)
Bryce HarperBryce Harper FD 4400 DK 5200
Opponent - MIA (Wei-Yin Chen) Park - WSH
FD - 13.04 DK - 9.71
Trea TurnerTrea Turner FD 4200 DK 5100
Opponent - MIA (Wei-Yin Chen) Park - WSH
FD - 12.46 DK - 9.72
Adam EatonAdam Eaton FD 3200 DK 4100
Opponent - MIA (Wei-Yin Chen) Park - WSH
FD - 10.55 DK - 8.15
Anthony RendonAnthony Rendon FD 3900 DK 4800
Opponent - MIA (Wei-Yin Chen) Park - WSH
FD - 12.53 DK - 9.44

On the main slate, I feel the Red Sox and Dodgers will see the highest ownership as each team projects for over five runs, the Dodgers especially providing a little wiggle room if you have Scherzer locked in as your pitcher. If you ride the fade on Scherzer and opt for a cheaper alternative on the hill, consider a Washington stack against Wei-Yin Chen. Washington projects for just under five runs and have just as much upside against the Miami southpaw.

It's going to be hot in D.C. tonight, but much more comfortable than it has been with no precipitation in the forecast. A light wind will be blowing in from right center, but given the average park factor here I'm not concerned that it will deter the power hitters in the Washington lineup.

Can you talk about a Washington stack without talking about Bryce Harper? Perhaps after the trade deadline, but for now, the answer is a resounding no. Despite some struggle at times this season (.211 average), Harper is still posting a .352 wOBA, with a .364 OBP and is ranked top ten in the majors with 21 home runs. In addition to Harper's power, we have the speed of Trea Turner, whose 22 stolen bases is just one shy of the league lead. Turner is slashing .282/.359/.427 this season, with an OPS approaching .800.

We'll round out our stack with Adam Eaton and Anthony Rendon. Eaton has four multi-hit efforts in his last seven games. His .346 wOBA sits above his career number for the fourth straight season, and he provides a moderately priced piece to counter the more expensive options in our stack. The same for Anthony Rendon at the hot corner, who holds a career .376 wOBA, and an OPS approaching .900 against left-handed pitching.



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