Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/18/18

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Pitcher

Stephen Strasburg FD 11000 DK 10200
Opponent - MIA (Trevor Richards) Park - MIA
FD - 38.13 DK - 21.1

The Nationals have been easing Strasburg back into the mix after he spent about a month on the disabled list, but the last two games he’s been up an over 100 pitches. And his last outing against the Phillies last Wednesday was about his best start of the season. He went seven innings, striking out nine, didn’t walk anyone and allowed only one earned run. He was efficient and the matchup on Monday has him in line for another similar line. The Marlins just flat out stink and rank second to last in wOBA against righties on the season. They have a pitiful .290 team wOBA in that split and strike out 23% of the time. Strasburg, when healthy, has been excellent this season sporting a 3.25 xFIP and 4.4:1 K:BB ratio. His 10.5 K’s per nine are right around his career average and even with the injury stuff he’s averaging right at six innings per start on the season. I’m still on him for cash games even this late in the season when pitching gets awful dicey with the pitch counts.

Blake Snell FD 11700 DK 12100
Opponent - TEX (Yovani Gallardo) Park - TEX
FD - 36.38 DK - 19.28

There are so many pitching options tonight making it sort of crazy to pay up for Snell who goes a downgrade in park but hear me out. He has been terrific all season and even better since returning from injury in early August where he has allowed just seven earned runs over eight starts(1.40 ERA/2.33 xFIP) while striking out over 12 batters per nine innings. He isn't doing this against just below average offenses either as he has shut down Cleveland twice and Boston and the Yankees once each as well. It is also good to see that the Rangers have been slightly worse against left-handed pitching as a team this season. Considering how dominating he has been, I think we should consider Snell in all formats tonight.

Joey Lucchesi FD 7500 DK 7600
Opponent - SF (Derek Holland) Park - SD
FD - 32.79 DK - 18.3

On DraftKings, unless you are planning on going value with every bat in your lineup you are going to need a cheaper pitcher to occupy the SP2 spot. For me, that option is Joey Lucchesi who has been solid all season with a 3.67 ERA/3.57 xFIP and always gets an upgrade pitching in San Diego. He isn't just a safe cash game option either as he has provided upside with a 25% K rate and 10.2% swinging strike rate. Not only that but he also gets an elite matchup vs. a Giants team that ranks dead last in hitting in the second half(.264 wOBA/64 wRC+/.109 ISO) and over the last 14 days have been striking out at a 28% rate. The opening line has the Padres at -124 tonight but all things considered, that feels a little low. Fire up Lucchesi in all formats. 

First Base/Catcher

Paul Goldschmidt FD 4300 DK 5300
Opponent - CHC (Mike Montgomery) Park - ARI
FD - 13.93 DK - 10.4

If you are paying up for one player tonight, Paul Goldschmidt is right at the top of the list as he leads all players on the main slate in raw points projections. He has been good all season and even better since the beginning of August as he is hitting .355 with an elite .441 on-base percentage and .290 ISO overall. On top of that, he has absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .426 wOBA, 164 wRC+, 1.022 OPS, and .294 ISO. While Mike Montgomery's numbers have been decent this season(3.87 ERA/4.39 xFIP) he hasn't struck many out(5.96 K/9) and has given up a 38% hard contact rate since the start of August. The Diamondbacks are in a great spot so get as much exposure as possible, starting with Goldy.

Justin Smoak FD 3200 DK 4300
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - BAL
FD - 11.73 DK - 8.77
Rowdy Tellez FD 2700 DK 4000
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - BAL
FD - 8.44 DK - 6.39

The Jays have been going back and forth between Tellez and Smoak at first base down the stretch and whoever gets the start on Tuesday is in play in a great matchup. They will face Dylan Bundy hasn' t been great all season but is having a second half to forget as he has given up 45 earned runs in just 52.2 innings(10 starts) for a 7.69 ERA. On top of that, he has also given up 18 home runs in those 10 starts for a 22.2% HR/FB rate and 38% hard contact rate against. Smoak would be more of a GPP play if he starts as he is having a down season and has seen his average dip down to .248 overall but he has provided power with 24 home runs. Rowdy Tellez was called up when rostered expanded in September and has impressed in a big way hitting .407 through 10 games with seven doubles and a home run. In this matchup, I would consider him in all formats, especially on FanDuel where he comes in under $3K.

Catcher Consideration: Yan Gomes(CLE)

Second Base

Brandon Lowe FD 3000 DK 3900
Opponent - TEX (Yovani Gallardo) Park - TEX
FD - 9.84 DK - 7.63

The Rays are once again topping the implied run list tonight and I feel much better about it this time around as they are cheap and make it much easier to fit one of the many top pitchers in our lineups. After an incredible season at AAA where he finished with a .304/.380/.613 slash line he was called up in early August and while the average(.247) hasn't been there, he has a solid .367 on-base percentage and has shown a ton of extra-base power with four doubles, two triples, five home runs, and 19 RBI. He is a Top 10 prospect in all of baseball and gets a terrific matchup putting him near the top of the PTS/$ ranking at the position and in play in all formats.

Ketel Marte FD 2300 DK 4100
Opponent - CHC (Mike Montgomery) Park - ARI
FD - 8.86 DK - 6.93

We have some choices at the second base position tonight and if you are not buying into the Tampa Bay hype, Ketel Marte makes a nice value play. He does hit down in the order and hasn't been incredibly consistent overall which hurts his overall projection but he is a switch hitter who has been WAY better against left-handed pitching with a .387 wOBA, 138 wRC, and .913 OPS(.280 wOBA, 67 wRC+, .643 OPS vs. righties). Given the matchup with his splits, he is a nice value tonight, especially on FanDuel in the low $2K range making it easy to get Goldy and a top pitcher in your lineup.

Also Consider: Ozzie Albies(ATL), Jonathan Villar(BAL)

Shortstop

Nick Ahmed FD 2700 DK 4300
Opponent - CHC (Mike Montgomery) Park - ARI
FD - 9.65 DK - 7.47

If you are stacking up on Arizona bats tonight, don't pan over Ahmed. He doesn't have an average(.246) or OBP(.301) that jumps off the page but he is having a career year when looking at the power as he has 16 home runs, 67 RBI, and has also added 59 runs scored. Just like Goldy and Marte who I mentioned earlier, Ahmed has also been much stronger against lefties with a .350 wOBA, 113 wRC+, and .241 ISO on the season. I will likely go another direction for cash games on DraftKings but love the price and PTS/$ value on FanDuel.

Kevin Newman FD 2200 DK 3700
Opponent - KC (Eric Skoglund) Park - PIT
FD - 7.48 DK - 5.82
Jordy Mercer FD 2200 DK 3100
Opponent - KC (Eric Skoglund) Park - PIT
FD - 8.11 DK - 6.26

If you are looking for value to help fit in top pitching and bats tonight, the shortstop position is a great place to go. I will be watching closely for Pirates lineup tonight as they get a plus matchup against lefty Eric Skoglund who is back up in the majors after multiple injuries. He really struggled pre-injury posting a 6.70 ERA/4.70 xFIP while giving up a 44.7% hard contact rate. Mercer was the regular shortstop earlier in the season and while he hits down in the order, he makes a nice punt option as he has been much better against lefties with a .283 average, .320 wOBA, 101 wRC+(.241 average, .290 wOBA, 81 wRC+ vs. righties). Kevin Newman was called up in mid-August and struggled big time with hits in just two of his first 13 games but has been better as of late with hits in six straight games. Neither will provide much upside but do provide salary relief to tie your overall lineup together.

Also Consider: Jose Peraza(CIN)

Third Base

Matt Chapman FD 4100 DK 4200
Opponent - LAA (Tyler Skaggs) Park - OAK
FD - 11.06 DK - 8.3

The Athletics are well on their way back to the playoffs as they are in control of the second wildcard and just 1.5 games back of the top wildcard and four games back of the division-leading Astros. A large part of their success comes from Chapman who took a huge leap in his second major league season. He is one of five A's to record 20 or more home runs and leads the team with a .282 average, .362 on-base percentage and 93 runs scored. With the Angels well out of the pennant race, I doubt they push Tyler Skaggs who is making his return from a groin injury that has held him out since mid-August so this could quickly turn into a bullpen game in which case I would give the advantage to the A's bats. With Chapman's consistency and solid place in the two-hole, He is a terrific target at third base for cash games and GPP formats tonight.

Kyle Seager FD 2900 DK 3100
Opponent - HOU (Josh James) Park - HOU
FD - 7.89 DK - 5.96

The Astros have pushed back Gerrit Cole to start on Friday and instead will start Josh James on Tuesday. Not that he is bad, by any means, as he tops 100 mph with his fastball but he is young and learning the ropes and has shown he can give up the home run. That is a good news for Seager who hasn't really provided much else this season as he enters with a .221 average but has hit 21 home runs and drove in 74 and the good news is he has been better as of late with a seven-game hit streak. I won't be targeting Seager in cash games on FanDuel as I feel there are better options but on DraftKings, he is low enough priced where he could be used as a punt at the position in all formats but is still best utilized in GPP formats.

Also Consider: Wil Myers(SD), Charlie Culberson(ATL)

Outfield

Tommy Pham FD 3300 DK 5000
Opponent - TEX (Yovani Gallardo) Park - TEX
FD - 12.67 DK - 9.64

In somewhat of a surprise trade, Tommy Pham came over to Tampa Bay at the start of August and got off to a rough start with just two hits in his first seven games(28 at-bats). Since then, he has been en feugo for the Rays with hits in 17 of his last 18 games including eight multi-hit games, four doubles, and 16 runs scored while averaging 15.0 FanDuel/11.6 DraftKings points per game. He should be able to keep up the production tonight in a terrific matchup against Yovani Gallardo who has given up 30 earned runs in eight starts since the start of August(7.11 ERA/5.43 xFIP) while also giving up eight home runs in that time. The price has on Pham has skyrocketed on DraftKings leaving him as a GPP only play tonight but on FanDuel in the low $3K range, he is in play in all formats.

George Springer FD 3900 DK 4500
Opponent - SEA (Mike Leake) Park - SEA
FD - 11.3 DK - 8.53

Overall, it has been a disappointing season for Springer who is coming off a 2017 where he set career-highs in home runs, RBI, average, OBP, and SLG %. The good news is that he is finishing strong in September with hits in 11 of his last 14 games including eight multi-hit efforts good for a .373 average and .452 on-base percentage. He only has one home run in the month but has maintained his 30%+ hard contact rate so once he start getting the ball in the air again, the upside will once again be through the roof. The matchup doesn't jump off the page as Mike Leake has been good in his last two starts but overall have been up and down all season and mostly struggled against good teams and Springer and the Astros are just that.

Brandon Guyer FD 2300 DK 3500
Opponent - CHW (Carlos Rodon) Park - CHW
FD - 9.27 DK - 7.06

If you need the salary saving to jam in a top pitcher and top bat, consider Brandon Guyer. While safety is not a word that we ever use with him platoon split is one we will use. He rarely gets a start against righties as he has been terrible in that split but whenever Guyer faces a lefty, he deserves our attention. He enters the night with a .359 wOBA, 124 wRC+ and .219 ISO against lefties and while the matchup against Rodon isn't jumping off the page we have to consider Guyer as there is a lack of value(at this point) with so many aces on the mound tonight.

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