Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/29/18
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Welcome to Saturday baseball! We have a full day of baseball to go along with an exciting college football slate. It'll be the last start of the season for most of these pitchers and a lot of teams just simply don't care at this point. Our favorite expensive pitcher on the board is Corey Kluber, who's in a tier of his own. He's gone 7+ innings in 4 of the last 5 games and has struck out 10 batters per 9 innings. The Indians aren't putting a leash on him and it's a very smart thing to do with a pitcher that lives off of momentum. Tonight, he faces a pitiful Royals lineup. Against righties, they rank 23rd against righties with a .307 wOBA and strikeout 22% of the time. Playing Kluber comes down to the price. If you like a cheap offense, play him and lock in the points. If you like some expensive bats, let's take a look at some cheaper arms.
Wade Miley is just way too cheap for this spot. I'm not one to say he's some great pitcher, but he gets it done and is pretty good at damage control. With Miley, it's all about the match-up. The Detroit Tigers are one of the weaker offenses in baseball and have ranked 22nd against lefties with a 21% strikeout rate and .312 wOBA. Miley has sported a .378 wOBA against both sides of the plate, so it's not like you have to be careful against one side of the plate. With that being said, you're playing Miley for safety. He doesn't strike anyone out and you won't find him going deep into the game. He will go 5-7 innings and give up two or three runs. The price is fair and he's a solid play in all formats.
We’ll dive right into the bats with an offense we love tonight. The Brewers face off with Daniel Norris, who’s struggled mightily all season long. He’s given up a .337 wOBA to both sides of the plate and has backed that up with a 1.59 HR/9. He now faces off with the Milwaukee Brewers, who are one of the more dangerous teams in baseball vs lefties. Jesus Aguilar is a big reason why. He’s sported a .394 wOBA against them and has totaled 34 home runs. The ball flies in Miller Park and the Brewers come in with one of the higher team totals on the slate. Aguilar is expensive, but worth paying up for if you need upside or are looking to stack the Brew Crew.
To put it simply, Adrian Sampson is a pitcher to target. This is a guy who has struggled throughout the minors and has never shown a sign of being anything other than a 4 or 5 starter. So far in the majors, Sampson has given up a .328 wOBA to lefties and a .429 to righties. That brings us to Ryon Healy, who’s just too cheap. I know he’s slightly better vs lefties, but the power is still there and he’s going to see RBI opportunities. He’s only $2600 on FanDuel and should end up popular because of it. I don’t think he does, though, at a stacked first base position that gives a ton of options. There’s more to come in Seattle.
Early - Josh Bell
Logan Forsythe FD 2400 DK 3100
Opponent - CHW (Carlos Rodon) Park - MIN
FD - 10.07 DK - 7.63
Second base is one of the weaker positions on this slate and it's a spot you can save some funds at. Logan Forsythe is our favorite of the bunch. The Twins face off with Carlos Rodon tonight, who has been a very weird pitcher this year. He's actually a reverse splits guy, so he's worse against lefties. It's not great for Forsythe, but he prefers left-handers, so it'll even out. If we're being honest the numbers aren't in the favor of Forsythe. He's just not that good. However, you can't ignore a guy hitting 3rd against a bad lefty for such a low price. The Twins are implied to score close to 5 runs and Forsythe will get himself involved.
Jonathan Schoop isn’t a guy who gets much national attention, but he has been a solid second baseman for a few years now. With that being said, 2018 hasn’t been his best. Since moving to the Brewers, Schoop has upped his wOBA to .316. He’s still a premier power bat and can drive in runs with the best of them. He faces off with Daniel Norris, who has had trouble with right-handers since he started in the majors. He has HR issues and this ballpark won't help at all. The Brewers are a team we love and Schoop is a cheap way to get rock solid exposure. We’re not done with the Brewers.
Trevor Cahill is not a good pitcher. He made his run, but it’s about time to hang up the cleats. In his last 5 starts, Cahill has given up 2+ runs in each and hasn’t gotten past the 5th inning. He’s falling apart. He now faces an Angels team headed by Mike Trout. They’re one of the better offenses to look at per Vegas and I’m certainly listening. Shortstop is pretty weak tonight and Andrelton Simmons is a guy I love. He hits righties just as good as lefties and doesn’t waiver in the power numbers. He’s not some elite hitter, but the Angels are going to put up runs and Simmons will have at least an RBI opportunity or two. His price is fair and I’m a fan in all formats.
Hernan Perez FD 2100 DK 3500
Opponent - DET (Daniel Norris) Park - MIL
FD - 10.61 DK - 8.28
First make sure he finds his way into the lineup. Hernan Perez is actually a guy I’ve targeted a ton over the last couple years. He’s one of the better fantasy utility guys as he won’t often be pinch-hit for. He also smacks lefties with a .330 wOBA and 32% hard contact rate. We’ve touched on Daniel Norris, who still hasn’t been able to figure things out. He’s going to struggle in Milwaukee and the lineup should flourish. Perez is extremely cheap across the board and helps you save while still contributing to your stack.
Early - Carlos Correa
You won't find me shying away from Adrian Sampson tonight. He hasn't shown any signs of improving and if anything, only signs of getting worse. He's allowed a 5.08 xFIP on the year and his peripherals are trending downward. Kyle Seager on the other hand, is just a rock solid option. He hasn't been phenomenal this year with a .309 wOBA, but he still has the power and will get plenty of opportunities with runners on base. His price is fair on both sites and you can play him in all formats. Vegas has the Rangers slated at 5.02 runs, so you're going to want to pay attention.
I have a sneaky suspicion that Josh Donaldson might be healthy. Why? How about 10 hits in his last six games with 2 dingers. He’s sitting in the middle of this dangerous Indians lineup and seeing pitches that he can’t miss. Tonight, the Indians face off with Jake Junis and the Royals. Junis, a young righty, has given up a .337 wOBA to both sides of the plate. His 4.57 xFIP is troubling and turns this offense into a spot I have some interest in. Donaldson is fairly priced across the industry and someone I’ll have slated into some of my cash games and tournaments right along with Seager.
I have a hard time ignoring Mike Trout on this slate. With Trevor Cahill so bad, you have to think Trout puts some heavy wood on the ball. He’s demolished right-handers this year with a .461 wOBA and 46% hard contact rate. He’s the best player in baseball and only continues to improve year in and year out. Tonight, his price is high, but the opportunity is tremendous and he may not be very popular. If you can’t afford him, get exposure to the Angels outfield with Ohtani or Calhoun, who both rip righties as well. All in all, this is a top offense that deserves attention in big cash games and tournaments.
I swear, these are the last Brewers. If we’re going to be targeting this team against a poor lefty, we definitely can’t ignore Ryan Braun and Lorenzo Cain. Cain and Braun are both a little off at this point, but have sported .340+ wOBA’s against lefties. They both have power to hit a bomb on any given night and a poor lefty with home run issues seems like a good start. I personally prefer Braun because of the price, but they’ll both be low-owned and I’m a huge fan in all formats.
The Brewers and Mariners are my two favorite offenses on this slate. Dee Gordon hasn't been using his legs much and you certainly can't count on the power, but he's always been consistent against righties at the plate. Gordon has sported a .320 wOBA against them and is always a threat when on first. Price-wise, you can ignore him on DraftKings. On FanDuel, it's hard to get away from him at so cheap. Adrian Sampson is the worst pitcher on the slate and the Rangers will take advantage. Good luck tonight and feel free to comment below with any questions!