Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 10/29/18
Monday in the NBA brings us plenty of action with a number of different superstars taking the court. Kawhi and Giannis face off against each other in a battle of undefeated East teams. Plus we get the Nuggets and Pelicans in an early, high leverage Western Conference matchup. But that's just the beginning. Lebron is back and facing the T-Wolves, the Warriors are big favorites against the Bulls and much more.
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Stephen Curry FD - $9800 DK - $10200
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 50.75 DK - 52.99
At this point, does the guy even need four quarters worth of basketball to hit value? It’s insane what Steph is doing this season and he’s approaching a new plane of existence (above a plane that he’d basically been occupying by himself to begin with). Curry is averaging an absurd (and this term isn’t really doing it justice) 12.3 three-point attempts per game (per game!) this season. I know I’m going nuts on the parantheticals here, but man, how can not you do it? By comparison, James Harden led the league with 10 3-pt attempts per game last season. Kemba Walker is second this year with 11.3. Oh, and it helps that Seph is knocking down 53% of his looks from beyond the arc. These numbers are simply ridiculous and are helping to mitigate some of the blowout risk inherent with the Warriors.
Goran Dragic FD - $6700 DK - $6200
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 34.64 DK - 36.05
Sacramento’s been giving it up this season with a 108 pace (5th-fastest in the league) and bottom-third defensive efficiency. They’re turning into one of the better DFS matchups around and Dragic is in a good spot on Monday. The relevant Heat players tend to stay in check price-wise because their minutes fluctuate and Coach Spo’ tends to play matchups along the margins. That leads to price stagnation and we can buy when they get into a plus matchup. That’s the case with Dragic here. He’s dropped 35 or more fantasy points in three of his first five games this season and is shooting way more threes (6.2 per game) than seasons past (4 per game last year). I like the scoring uptick he stands to see in this matchup and is coming cheap for what should be a pace-up game.
After these two top guys, I do think there’s something of a drop-off in the point guard options for Monday’s slate. Trae Young for sure has upside if he can get the scoring going, but we’ve seen the Hawks be a mess with minutes this season already so it’s tough to trust him for cash games. If the T-Wolves can hang and Andrew Wiggins sits out again, I think there is some reason to consider Derrick Rose.
Klay Thompson FD - $6200 DK - $5600
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 32.4 DK - 33.85
For all the lights-out shooting Steph has displayed to start the season, Klay hasn’t had any part of it. Dude is ice-cold from the field (38%) and especially frigid from the three-point arc (13%). This is one of the worst stretches of his career, but I’m not seeing any reason to hit the panic button. NBA’ers (especially those of Klay’s ilk) tend to regress to their historical means and if that’s the case with Klay then we are buying very low on his production. Simply put: there are buckets to come for this guy and we don’t want to fall victim to the *idea* that Thompson isn’t going to bust out of this slump in a big way at this point. He just has too long a track record of hitting threes and the Warriors should find a way to get him going sooner than later.
Gary Harris FD - $7200 DK - $6200
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 36.05 DK - 36.43
For all of New Orleans’ offensive prowess this season, they’ve been a sieve on the defensive end. They’re playing a bottom-third defensive efficiency and a top third pace. That makes for an advantageous DFS matchup and there’s a reason this game will likely come in at one of the higher over/unders of the evening (no early line while Vegas waits on Anthony Davis). Harris has been asked to play more minutes with Will Barton on the shelf and has taken more than 15 shots per game over the last five. He needs to score to hit value on these prices, but won’t into much resistance around the perimeters with this Pels’ D. He’s a little expensive on FanDuel, but the DraftKings’ price is right in the cash range.
If you think the Bulls can, in any way, hang with the Warriors then it’s for sure on the back of a big scoring night from Zach Lavine. He’s getting expensive, but he’s putting it up this season with 29 points per game on 18.7 shot attempts (while getting to the line close to nine times per game). He’s also shooting 40% from three.
And obviously, we are waiting on the Anthony Davis news. If the Pels’ superstar were to sit again, then the whole team is in play, starting with Jrue Holiday. The latter was chalk against the Jazz on Saturday when Davis sat and could be again on Monday.
Kawhi Leonard FD - $9800 DK - $9600
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 48.01 DK - 47.04
The Raptors have been dispatching teams with relative ease to start the season (four of their six wins by nine points or more) and Kawhi’s been a big part of the reason. They draw a matchup worth tuning in for against the Bucks as the only two remaining undefeated teams in the NBA. Kawhi will see a lot of Giannis and this is just the kind of game we want to tune in for. I still think we are buying at value on Kawhi who’s averaging 20 shots per game and shooting 45% from three. He’s rebounding at the best rate of his career (eight per game) and, if anything, is running a little bad on the defensive stats. This could be something of a leverage game considering who they’re facing and the minutes will be there for Leonard. It’s getting harder and harder to pay for the guy, but he’s still coming cheap enough.
Robert Covington FD - $6300 DK - $5400
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 33.72 DK - 33.43
It can be awful dodgy rostering this guy because if the three isn’t falling AND the defensive stats aren’t there then you are looking at a long and lonely night from the Sixer’s wing. His shot attempts are fine and if the game stays close then you are looking at mid-to-high 30’s minutes for RoCo. He’s playing more minutes per game this season than last though a lot of the rate stats haven’t seen much in the way of an uptick. But he’s still coming so cheap on DraftKings and the Sixers draw a high-volume matchup against the Hawks who are playing the fastest pace in the league this season (109.8). That’s great news for a guy like Covington who sees his biggest upside when he can pile on the threes and the steals.
Much like Jrue Holiday, Nikola Mirotic would instantly jump to the top of the small forward list if Anthony Davis sat out. Mirotic would, once again, be in line for major minutes at the four and the usage gets a bump as well.
Dario Saric FD - $6000 DK - $5600
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 32.49 DK - 34.09
It never feels all that exciting playing Saric, but at this point, the guy is priced correctly and in a good matchup with the Hawks. Atlanta isn’t much (of anything) of a defensive team and Saric’s price is fair considering he’s running a little bad in the scoring department. To start the season, he’s shooting only 38% (career 43%) and 27% from three (career 35%). This has led to fewer points even though the opportunity has been there. He’s actually rebounding at a higher rate (7.8 per game) to start the year. He’s an excellent DraftKings value at a weaker position and, as we know, FanDuel is always an issue when trying to roster two power forwards.
Pascal Siakam FD - $4400 DK - $3900
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 25.36 DK - 24.8
It’s a little hard to know what to make of Siakim’s last game. On the one hand, the 37 minutes were, by far, his most of the season and he sported a 10 point, seven rebound, three assist line that helped pay the day at these prices. But his minutes haven’t been nearly as bullish this year and O.G. Anunoby did sit that one out. If Siakim drew the start again (Toronto does shift things around) then I’d feel ok with him as a punt play, but know that Anunoby is back for Monday’s game. I think you can also consider Serge Ibaka depending on how the Raptors choose to start the game against the Bucks.
Consider Noah Vonleh on the cheap if he started again for the Knicks.
Dewayne Dedmon FD - $4500 DK - $4700
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 25.25 DK - 25.15
After outplaying Alex Len off the bench on Saturday, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Dedmon enter the starting lineup on Monday. That’s always been the plan for the big man, but injuries had the Hawks bringing him along slowly. On Saturday, Len played only 17 minutes while Dedmon came off the bench. The latter ran 27 minutes and finished with 13 points, 13 rebounds and five blocks. The price barely moved and I’d almost be comfortable playing him on FanDuel even if he still came off the bench. But with the matchup against Embiid and the Sixers, this could be the game Dedmon moves back into the starting lineup. It’s an early game so we should have all of the information prior to lineup lock.
Mitchell Robinson FD - $3500 DK - $3400
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 20.07 DK - 19.56
The Knicks switched around their starting lineup on Saturday, running Robinson out there with the first team. New York was actually competitive with the Warriors for about three quarters before getting their doors blown off in the fourth and losing by more than 20. If Robinson is in the starting lineup again then he’s a min-priced punt option who likely won’t kill you for the low salary. He had seven points, six rebounds, and two steals in 29 minutes against the Warriors and you have to think this is about the fantasy floor if he’s going to see similar court time against a weak frontcourt for the Nets.
Like Holiday and Mirotic, Julius Randle’s fantasy viability is directly tied to whether or not Anthony Davis takes the court on Monday. Randle was disappointing against the Jazz on Saturday, but would draw something of a better matchup against the Nuggets here.
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- Stephen Curry: (AP Photo/Ben Margot)