Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

11/03/2018
Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/3/18

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Point guard

Kemba WalkerKemba Walker FD - $9200 DK - $8900
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 43.36 DK - 45.02

Welcome to NBA Saturday! With baseball finally out of the picture, it's time to focus on basketball and football. We have a full slate of college football today to lead us into an eventful night of NBA. We're looking at seven games on the slate with plenty to dive into. We'll start off at point guard, where you have a ton of options. Our favorite is in Charlotte, where the Hornets are hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers. Up to this point, the Cavs have ranked 28th against opposing point guards. Sexton is a terrible defender and while Hill is fine, he's only out there for 20-25 minutes. Walker is much better at home and has been a top point guard to start this season. I love him in all formats as a safe 45+ fantasy points.

Goran DragicGoran Dragic FD - $6200 DK - $6500
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 33.82 DK - 34.86

The Heat have held Dragic out of practice the last two days, but it seems to be precautionary more than anything. It looks like he will play today and is in a dream match-up vs Trae Young and the Hawks. Young can score, but he couldn’t play defense in college, let alone now. Dragic has gotten to 30 minutes in all but one game this season and has followed up every 30+ minute opportunity with 30+ fantasy points. Tonight, the Heat will play faster than normal and the Hawks won’t offer any defensive resistance. Make sure Dragic is planning to play and plug him into your cash games.

Damian LillardDamian Lillard FD - $9600 DK - $9900
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 44.14 DK - 46.22

If Kemba Walker doesn’t float your boat for whatever reason, Damian Lillard is in the same price range and has an equally high ceiling and floor. Facing off with the Cavs in Portland, you know Lillard is going to play 35 minutes and put up 45 fantasy points. The Lakers have been bottom-5 against point guards to start the year and shouldn’t get much better. Lillard has yet to show us the coveted 70 point game, but we all know it's coming. This is a perfect spot too, against Rondo and Ball, who are both pretty bad on defense. His price has dipped below $10k for the first time and I love buying him on the low.

Shooting Guard

Zach LaVineZach LaVine FD - $8300 DK - $7800
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 43.74 DK - 44.97

With James Harden set to return, I love Zach LaVine on the opposite side of things. Harden doesn’t play any defense and LaVine has been taking the ball up while the “point guard” sits in the corner. It should put him up against Harden in a lot of open floor situations, which just screams easy opportunity to me. This game will end up with a 230+ over/under before it tips and I think it gets there. LaVine will have an easier job tonight with Harden than he has in any of these last games and has demolished value almost every night. LaVine is a guy I’m comfortable with in both cash games and tournaments.

C.J. McCollumC.J. McCollum FD - $6800 DK - $6400
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 33.12 DK - 34.18

C.J. McCollum is obviously having a bad start to the season. He's not only not producing, but he's not even getting huge minutes. With that being said, the Lakers rank dead last against shooting guards and offer up the perfect spot for McCollum to get right. He's now under $7k on both sites and will exceed value with just 30 fantasy points. Hart and KCP are fine individual defenders, but the team plays fast and they aren't a mechanically sound defense at all. I actually like McCollum just a little bit more than Lillard for the price, but can see going either way.

Grayson AllenGrayson Allen FD - $3500 DK - $3000
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 0 DK - 0

If you have to pay down or are looking for your FD sacrifice of the night at SG, Grayson Allen is still too cheap. I know he probably isn’t a very good player and put up 10 fantasy points in 27 minutes last night, but not all minutes are created equally. With both Donovan Mitchell and Alec Burks out, the Jazz really don’t have an option. He’ll now see those 25-30 minutes against Denver, who plays a lot faster and gives you a lot more space on the perimeter. I can easily see Allen eclipsing 20 here and he’s a no-risk option at minimum price.

 

Small forward

Nikola MiroticNikola Mirotic FD - $7900 DK - $8200
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 41.66 DK - 42.72

To the surprise of many, the San Antonio Spurs currently rank dead last against small forwards. Their defense isn’t what it usually is, but you’d never expect a dead-last bid out of any Spurs defense. Rudy Gay is a terrible defender and now has no Danny Green or Kawhi Leonard to help him out. Whether Anthony Davis plays or not, Nikola Mirotic will get 33+ minutes and shoot 15+ times. The game is expected to be within 3 or 4 points with a 227 over/under. Mirotic is still cheap enough on both sites to play in all formats.

Joe InglesJoe Ingles FD - $6300 DK - $6800
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 30.69 DK - 32.03

We know Ingles is going to see 35 minutes and will have the ball in his hands on almost every possession with Donovan Mitchell out. He struggled against Memphis, but so does everyone. He now draws a match-up against the Nuggets, who rank 26th in basketball against small forwards. Without Will Barton, it's a combination of bench guys that don't play much defense. The Nuggets also love to run, so the Jazz can expect a pace increase. Ingles hasn't been the 30+ fantasy points we're used to, but he's just been unlucky. I look for him to get things right in this one and be right back to his $7-8k price tag he usually holds. Ingles is way too cheap in all formats and a lock for my cash games.

Sam DekkerSam Dekker FD - $4500 DK - $4800
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 24.21 DK - 24.12

With Kevin Love out for the next 6-8 weeks, it looks like Sam Dekker will be the main benefactor. He's been over 25 minutes in each of the last three games, and played 34 two nights ago. He's not a superstar fantasy player when on the court, but isn't a slouch either. He's a guy that's match-up based and relies on seeing open perimeter shots. The Hornets play fast and don't have much of a perimeter defense at all. Dekker isn't the guy who will bring it home in tournaments, but he also won't be the guy that kills you. This game is currently holding a 227 over/under and should be targeted as much as possible. Let's move on to some big guys.

 

Power forward

Wendell Carter Jr.Wendell Carter Jr. FD - $7200 DK - $5500
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 28.52 DK - 27.32

With Lauri Markkanen still out and Bobby Portis out for the next 4-6 weeks, the PF keys have been handed to Wendell Carter Jr. It took him a few games to gain his footing, but Carter has found his groove and has put up 30+ in 4 straight with 60 a few nights ago. You may feel like you’re chasing points, but I think Carter is consistently this good and you’ll regret trying to be too cute. The Rockets rank 30th in basketball against power forwards and Carter Jr. is a do it all bruiser. He’s my favorite PF on the board and doesn’t offer much resistance in terms of price.

Kyle KuzmaKyle Kuzma FD - $6500 DK - $6200
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 28.39 DK - 29.65

Even with Ingram back, Kuzma has been and is going to see his 30+ minutes a night. He's posted over 30 fantasy points in three of the last four games. Each of those match-ups was tougher than this one, against a fast-paced Blazers squad that doesn't love playing defense. Kuzma thrives when he's able to run the floor and get some space. He's willing to shoot 20+ times and LeBron loves giving him the ball. This game fits perfectly into his play style and I don't see much risk at the price. When you're in the good graces of LeBron, you're going to see the minutes and ball.

 

Center

JaVale McGeeJaVale McGee FD - $7500 DK - $6400
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 40.23 DK - 37.21

There hasn’t been a single sign that this is going to slow down. Aside from the opportunity, McGee has performed like nobody thought possible. He just put up 55 against the Mavericks, following 31,38, and 45 FP performances. This is Javale McGee. B we’re talking about here. He’s been over 30 minutes in 3 of their last 4 games and is a guy they need on the court to stay competitive. They’ll need him again tonight in Portland, where they lost on opening night. R is a big body, but terribly slow and can be taken advantage of with ease. I expect McGee to have another 30 fantasy points with the upside for 55. The price is obviously getting up there and rightfully so, but it’s still not to the point where you’re overpaying.

Nikola JokicNikola Jokic FD - $10100 DK - $9000
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 42.37 DK - 44.09
Rudy GobertRudy Gobert FD - $10100 DK - $8100
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 41.23 DK - 41.26

Clash of the titans here. I’m not sure either of these guys are the most fiscally responsible choices on this slate, but one of these guys will win the match-up and put up 50+. I personally think it’s Jokic, but Gobert could easily control the glass and match-up if Utah gets out to an early lead. If the game stays fast and in the control of Denver, Jokic will be too much to handle from Gobert on the perimeter and in space. Jokic is actually cheaper and the guy I’ll be leaning on in a lot of tournaments. Gobert is a bit safer, but the price doesn’t give you much room to grow for a guy that doesn’t have scoring upside.

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10 Visitor Comments

  1. Maybe McCollum is having a bad start because he recently faced the “absent minded Holliday”……

  2. Honest question… why is 5x commonly referred to as “exceeding value”, when you need 6x to get to 300? Even in cash games 5x isn’t exceeding value. And above McCollum is described as exceeding value at 4.5x.

  3. because the writer doesnt proof read what he writes.

    • It’s very easy to point out the players they selected correctly. We have to look at the price tag of those players. Try fitting all of those players in your lineup and the rest of your team is garbage. Thursday they wrote up Trae young, Avery Bradley, and Dario saric(every time Philly plays). Wed. it was Darren Coliseum, Myles Turner and Harrison Barnes. All of these examples were horrible. I enjoy the article everyday and it often times helps but I’m not here for information on Kevin Durant or Anthony Davis I’m looking for the Value Plays and based on my recent experience those have not been good.

  4. You guys are all talking shit, but for the last five or so nights, the write up has half a gpp winning lineup in it. Last night he had Paul, Rubio, Oladipo, Capela and Kawhi. There’s 260 FanDuel points he just spotted you

  5. Who’s talking shit? I asked a legit question. I’d like a rationale on how 4.5x can be exceeding value.

  6. Value is cash game terminology and that is 4X. Tournament/GPP is where the 5-6X comes into play. With FD dropping lowest score, that number varies and is probably going to be 4.5 for value and 5.5 for GPP now.

    • Thanks for the response. I’ll still disagree though with a caveat that I play DK and I’m not familiar with payout thresholds for FD. With that said, there’s no way in hell that 4x gets a payout in virtually any DK contest that isn’t a 30% overlay. In fact, 5x often doesn’t get it done – even in cash games.

  7. Want more value plays? Become a member and get into chat an hour before lock when Doug and James are dishing out valuable information as lineups come in. They also discuss strategy depending on who is sitting/starting, especially on FanDuel with the new rules.

  8. Not to mention the many knowledgeable members dishing out info as well. The article is a starting point and is written the night before when literally zero information is released. This is NBA.!! The most valuable info comes an hour or two before lock.

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