Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

11/05/2018
Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/5/18

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Point guard

Russell WestbrookRussell Westbrook FD - $12000 DK - $11100
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 60.37 DK - 63.25

Welcome to NBA Monday! After an eventful weekend full of football, we dive right into what should be a fun night of basketball. We have nine games on the board with three over/unders over 220. We'll start off at point guard, where we'll be paying up for Russell Westbrook. Speaking of high totals, this game is king of all with a 237.5 over/under at open. We're going  to want to target the game a ton and both superstars should be considered in cash games. Westbrook has been over 55 fantasy points in three straight games and is looking a lot like his former self. He now sees a top 5 match-up for his position against the Pelicans, who are the 5th fastest team in basketball and play no defense. As long as this game stays close, I don't see Westbrook scoring less than 50 fantasy points. We know the ceiling is as high as anyone in the game and I love stacking this game with punts elsewhere.

Kyrie IrvingKyrie Irving FD - $7700 DK - $7700
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 39.83 DK - 40.99

Kyrie is definitely not on top of his game right now, but he's been over 40 fantasy points in two of the last three and is starting to look more like his normal self. He now gets a match-up with Denver, who's known to be putrid against point guards. They've actually been pretty good this year per the numbers, but it has a lot more to do with the PG's they have faced. Murray is nothing to be afraid of and Gary Harris will be plenty busy. This is going to be a phenomenal game and I see Kyrie being the Celtic that leads their cause. Kyrie is going to see 30+ minutes and is always a threat to put up 60. His price is at an all-time low and I don't see much risk here. Deploy Kyrie across the board.

Tyus JonesTyus Jones FD - $5100 DK - $5400
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 32.78 DK - 31.7

If both Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose are out, Tyus Jones is going to see 35+ minutes. He's already seen 40 once, so we know Thibs is more than willing to give him the opportunity. He's always been productive when on the floor and isn't afraid to shoot, even with the studs on the floor. Jones is a solid player and actually gets involved down the stretch, opposed to most backups who sit in the corner. This game is going to be high-scoring and Vegas expects it to come down to the wire. Keep your eye out for the status of Teague and Rose before playing Tyus Jones in 100% of your lineups.

Shooting Guard

Jimmy ButlerJimmy Butler FD - $9500 DK - $8200
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 0 DK - 0

We'll stay right in Minnesota and pick on the Clippers a bit more. Butler took last game off for general soreness or rest, whatever is easier to stomach. Butler is going to continue sitting out the first half of B2B's as I'm sure the last things the T-Wolves want is an injured Jimmy Butler they can't trade. When playing, he's seeing over 35 minutes a game and has the keys to the offense in his hands. He's a bit up and down, but over 50 fantasy points in each of his last two big games. The Clippers have an above average defensive efficiency but are playing at a faster pace this season. Butler is too cheap on both sites and makes sense in all formats. He's one of the most consistent players in the NBA when on the floor and rested.

Zach LaVineZach LaVine FD - $8300 DK - $8000
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 43.27 DK - 44.56

If you don't want to pay all the way up for Butler, LaVine is a great option coming a bit cheaper (on DK, play Jimmy). With Kris Dunn injured, LaVine has been given the reigns and has put up monster usage numbers. He's over 35 minutes in each of the last three games and is genuinely looking like a superstar on the offensive end of the floor. He not only controls the tempo of the game, but fills up the stat sheet like crazy. LaVine is going to be one of the more consistent players in the entire league at least until Kris Dunn is healthy, if not longer. The New York Knicks are average against guards and play relatively fast.

Garrett TempleGarrett Temple FD - $4500 DK - $4700
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 23.65 DK - 23.81

Temple has been picking up a ton of minutes lately. He's been over 34 minutes in each of his last three games and reached 20 fantasy points in 2 of those. Ya, not great, but the PACE was down in those games and this game will be completely different. Vegas has this game at a 220.5 over/under, which is the highest you'll see a Grizzlies game all year long. Temple is touching the ball on almost every possession and has shown upside with 40+ FP earlier in the year. Temple is still under $5k on both sites and deserves attention in cash games for value at the position. The risk here is the potential blowout with the Warriors heavy favorites.

 

Small forward

Jabari ParkerJabari Parker FD - $6600 DK - $5700
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 30.84 DK - 31.35

Jabari Parker is finally seeing huge minutes and I think we’re ready to count on him in cash games. I know the production hasn’t followed, but it’s been a small sample size and we know Parker is a big fantasy point per minute player. With 30+ minutes in 2 of his last 3, these price tags are just too low. The Knicks aren’t a dynamite defense by any means and rank 24th against small forwards on the season. Parker is going to play another 30 minutes and will be in the majority of my cash games. He's a guy that will produce when given the ball and this match-up is a recipe for success. Let's get to a few more options.

Josh RichardsonJosh Richardson FD - $7300 DK - $7500
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 35.26 DK - 34.77

There is a very good reason Pat Riley would not give up Josh Richardson in any trade this off-season, including one for Jimmy Butler. Josh Richardson has been over 45 fantasy points in two of the last three games and is leading this offense right now. The Pistons rank 20th against the position and play at an average PACE. Vegas hasn't released a line on this game yet, but I expect it to stay close and be relatively high-scoring. His price is getting up there, but he's still affordable if putting up 40+ a night. This is one of the weaker positions on the slate and Richardson gives you a safe 35-45 fantasy points with the upside for much more.

Kevin DurantKevin Durant FD - $10700 DK - $10100
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 49.13 DK - 50.05

Small forward is not very strong tonight. I would personally rather pay up elsewhere with the Grizzlies ranking 29th in PACE, but you know what you're getting when you play Kevin Durant. He will hit 50 fantasy points and isn't priced over $11k on either site. If the game does stay close by chance, Durant has limitless upside. He will be lesser owned than most stars and Vegas thinks this game is still very high-scoring. My lineup construction is pulling me away from Durant, but I will have my sprinkle of exposure in tournaments where I want to pay down at other positions.

 

Power forward

Aaron GordonAaron Gordon FD - $7300 DK - $6500
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 37.61 DK - 38.35

Aaron Gordon is a pretty weird player. When on his game, he can put up 50 fantasy points with ease. When off his rhythm, he can put up 20 fantasy points over an entire game. Tonight, he faces off against a terrible Cavs team. With Love out, the Cavs have ranked 22nd against opposing power forwards. They aren't starting Larry Nance and have incredibly weak interior D.  Gordon is a lot better down low and should bully them with ease. The Magic have been running a lot of plays for Gordon and I think he is safe with minutes in this one. Everything is pointing his direction and I'd be surprised by anything less than 30 fantasy points. His price is somewhat down and the opportunity is up for grabs.

Jerami GrantJerami Grant FD - $4900 DK - $4400
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 23.36 DK - 22.61

Jerami Grant has been a bit up and down, but this looks like a perfect game for him to excel. He thrives when able to run and this is definitely the game for that. The Pelicans are the 5th fastest team in the league and don't play any interior defense. Grant is going to see a lot of time on AD as well, so I really think he reaches 30 minutes here. If he does, you know to expect production. He's over 20 fantasy points as a floor every night and has gotten up to 45. Grant is still under $5k at this point and he's a guy I'll have a ton of tonight in a game that I want a lot of exposure to.

 

Center

Karl-Anthony TownsKarl-Anthony Towns FD - $9400 DK - $8500
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 49.21 DK - 51.3

Kat, like the rest of the Minnesota Timberwolves, has been very up and down. He put up 65 fantasy points in two straight games and everything looked splendid. He's since followed it up with 32 and 34, so maybe not. With all that said, it's gotten his price down on both sites. He's under $10k on FanDuel and $9k on DK, needing you 50 to smash value. The Clippers are a terrible defense in general and rank 24th against centers. Boban might be tall, but Towns is going to demolish him on the perimeter and is just on a different level of athleticism. I expect this game to go down to the wire and for the T-Wolves starters to play 35+ minutes. If that happens, Towns is going to pick up 45+ fantasy points and could get to 70.

Boban MarjanovicBoban Marjanovic FD - $5400 DK - $4500
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 34.28 DK - 36.09

We'll stay in the same game. Marcin Gortat didn't touch the floor last game and it allowed Boban to start and play 22 minutes for the second consecutive game. He put up 38 and 24 fantasy points in those games and now sees a great match-up with Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns is dominant on offense, but he doesn't play much defense at all and Marjanovic should get his easy 10+ rebounds. His price is still low on both sites and you don't need much to hit value. I am going to try my best to pay up for Towns, but could see myself splitting ownership between these two and paying up elsewhere.

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image sources

  • Thunder Lakers Basketball: (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

1 Visitor Comment

  1. As a result of following your recommendations to play T-wolves, I have contracted “overall soreness” and will not be playing fantasy today. The T-wolves are what’s wrong with basketball and fantasy. Butler comes out and says essentially “you guys suck and I don’t want to play with you”. I don’t have a problem with that. My problem is if he feels that way, why would he play at all, why would they let him pick and choose his games. He ain’t Lebron. Cut your ties and move on. However, my biggest problem is the rest of the team. When Butler doesn’t play, you would think they would ball and prove him wrong. They do the opposite ( Jones 4 pts. , Towns 5 rebounds, ). They turtle. Then you recommend them again? Even worse, the sheep ( I’m one ) who follows you. Getting this out releaved some of my soreness, but, I still need a day of rest.

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