Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/10/18
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Welcome to NBA Saturday! We have a full slate of NBA to couple with a day of college football. If you played NBA DFS last year, you know an injury to Curry isn’t the worst thing that can happen to this offense (from a DFS POV). For one, the studs will get more attention. With Green also out, it’s going to run a lot of shots through Thompson and KD. You then get Quinn Cook as a replacement, who’s always averaged over 1 FP per minute in the NBA. He’s back to his norm in his last two games and should produce given the minutes. The Nets have a terrible defensive efficiency and D-Russ isn’t much of a perimeter defender. Cook will take a step back for the superstars, but will still find a way to shoot 10+ times and grab 30 fantasy points. The price is extremely fair on both sites and Cook is close to a must in my cash games.
This is a game we’re going to be all over. An opening over/under of 240 is absolutely insane and something we have to take advantage of. The Lakers and Kings are both extremely fast-paced offenses and neither play much defense. As for De’Aaron Fox, he’s been seeing a consistent 35+ minutes. While the production is a bit up and down, the Lakers rank 24th against opposing PG’s and Fox won’t have much trouble running the floor here. He'll match-up with Rajon Rondo for most of the game, who is not a good defender at all. The Lakers are one of the worst defenses in all of basketball and Vegas doesn't think that changes in the slightest tonight. The floor is 30 with a ceiling that were not aware of yet.
We’ll stay right in Sacramento and take a look at Rajon Rondo. He hasn’t been all that great lately, but it looks like Lonzo Ball might miss this game with a sprained ankle. If he does, Rondo is going to pick up at least 30 minutes in a game with a 240 opening total. He could easily see a full 34-38 minutes and blow value away with ease. De’Aaron Fox is a bad defender, evidenced by the Kings 28th ranking against point guards. As long as Lonzo Ball is out, Rajon Rondo is one of the top value plays on the night.
Jrue Holiday FD - $9000 DK - $8500
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 44.8 DK - 44.78
Moving on to shooting guard, Jrue Holiday is a hard one to dislike. We always want to target the fast-paced Suns and this Pelicans team is one that’s willing to run right along with them. Whether Elfrid Payton comes back or not, Holiday is going to see 35+ minutes in a close game. The Suns rank in the bottom 10 against SG’s and Devin Booker is far from focused on defense. Holiday is putting up 40+ fantasy points a night and he has the upside for 60 in this spot. I expect this game to stay close and Holiday is one of the safer bets on the slate.
Klay Thompson FD - $6500 DK - $6800
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 33.83 DK - 35.45
With both Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant out, you have to love Klay Thompson tonight. You know he's going to shoot the ball 20+ times and against Brooklyn, has to have a floor over 30 fantasy points. The Warriors are still favored to win the game and I expect Vegas to drop a total around 225-230. The Nets rank in the bottom 10 against SG's and while LeVert isn't the worst defender out there, the Nets just play fast and Allen is a terrible rim protector. Thompson is under $7k on both sites and is a must for my cash games. I just don't see how he doesn't chuck 8-13 threes without Curry and Durant. If he gets hot, Thompson has put up over 50 fantasy points plenty of times. He's a phenomenal options in all formats.
With Cedi Osman and Sam Dekker both out, Jordan Clarkson and J.R. Smith both picked up 32 minutes. They now get to face a Chicago Bulls squad that doesn't play any defense. They rank 13th against shooting guards and 22nd against small forwards, so there is no stout defense being played here. As for which one of these guys I prefer, it's Clarkson. He has the ball in his hands a lot more and is going to be consistent when given the opportunity. Smith is obviously reliant on getting hot from three. Both of these guys are under $5k and won't need to much to hit value in cash games. I like paying up at shooting guard, but both of these guys are fine to settle on if you want to pay up at another position.
Kevin Durant FD - $10600 DK - $10700
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 55.66 DK - 56.44
Kevin Durant is in a spot tonight where not much can go wrong. We've already touched on two Warriors with Curry and Dray out and we aren't close to finished yet. Durant is going to have the ball in his hands a ton tonight and will shoot 20+ times. The Nets are a bottom 10 defense in all of the league and rank 23rd against opposing SF's. The Nets are going to struggle on the road, even with the two superstars out. The game should stay relatively close for at least three quarters and Durant has a floor over 50 at a pretty friendly price tag. Cheaper than LeBron, he's going to be a mainstay in my cash games and tournaments and I'm not sure I want to be left out at all.
LeBron James FD - $11200 DK - $10900
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 56.45 DK - 57.86
You just have to pay attention when LeBron James is in a game with a 240 over/under. The Lakers are favored by 6 points, giving them an expectation of 223 points scored. The NBA is just a different game now. James is definitely going to cost you an arm and a leg, but it could be worth it. If this game stays close, the lack of defense played could easily lend itself to an 80 burger out of King James. He'll also have a depressed ownership with Kevin Durant being cheaper and in a phenomenal spot. With all of that being said, there are a lot of ways to pay up tonight and I like LeBron just as much as I like AD. In cash games, I'll still take the savings and safety with Durant on banged up Warriors squad.
Justise Winslow FD - $5600 DK - $5800
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 30.22 DK - 30.16
Winslow has been performing all season long and got to join the starting lineup just three games ago. He's now played 30+ minutes in two of those three games and has put up 20+ FP in each with a 38 ceiling. Tonight, he faces off with the Wizards, who rank 29th in basketball against small forwards. They play way faster than the Heat and it'll give a few of these Miami guys a chance to play up in PACE. Winslow thrives in the open floor and is a bit too cheap when getting these minutes. If you're not going to pay up for a stud at SF, Winslow is my favorite way to spend down.
Anthony Davis FD - $12200 DK - $11800
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 61.57 DK - 60.93
You have to love Anthony Davis tonight. While this game doesn’t have the highest over/under on the slate, it’s right up there at 220. The Suns and Pelicans both play fast and we know AD loves to play with tempo at his back. The big men in Phoenix are not only inept st defense, but don’t rebound much and prefer to shoot from the perimeter. The Suns have nobody to throw at Davis at the 4, so you have to think it’ll be majority DeAndre Ayton and Ryan Anderson. Davis will absolutely obliterate both of them on the offensive side and could put up 70 fantasy points in three quarters. His price is high, but the floor is over 50 and there is no telling the ceiling. This is a game we want to target and Davis is the big dog of them all.
Jaren Jackson Jr. FD - $6200 DK - $5200
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 33.39 DK - 31.29
Jackson Jr. isn’t a guy we've been able to play much, but only because of the uncertainty in minutes. That looks to be over. He’s played 32 minutes in back to back games and has put up 38 and 44 fantasy points. He now faces off with a Philly squad that sits dead last in basketball against the position (57.5 FD points per night). Jackson Jr. has been a focal point of the offense when in the game and should thrive in a fast-paced affair with the Sixers. He loves to run the court with his youth and most PF’s can’t keep up. On the Sixers, there isn’t a power forward to speak of that can play a lick of defense. The total is high, Jackson Jr. is fairly priced, and power forward isn’t all that appealing. Jackson Jr. for me is a play in all formats. On to the next.
Willie Cauley-Stein FD - $7200 DK - $6600
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 34.73 DK - 33.94
As one of the more polarizing players in basketball, Willie Cauley-Stein has taken a huge step up in 2018. He’s now dominating the paint and controlling a lot of what goes on at the rim. He’s still not a great defender, but we’re fortunately not worried about that here. WCS has been seeing over 30 minutes in meaningful games and has produced nearly every time out. Tonight, he faces off against JaVale McGee, who’s one of the only guys in the league with similar athleticism. He’s still an absolutely terrible defender, though, as seen by the Lakers 29th ranked D against centers. Cauley-Stein played just 28 minutes last night in preparation for tonight. The spot is perfect and I can’t harp on the 240 projected total enough. All in all, this game is one you need exposure to in both cash games and tournaments.
I know we're all over the Warriors tonight, but how can you not be with both Curry and Dray out? There are just so many minutes, shots, and peripherals to go around. The prices haven't had time to adjust either, so we're working with a ton of strong value. The majority of Draymond Green minutes will be spread to Jordan Bell and Damian Jones, who both picked up 20+ minutes last game in a similar situation. The Nets are bottom of the barrel against big men and neither of these guys will have any trouble producing. It's all about getting the minutes. I personally prefer Bell as I think he fits the pace of this game well, But Jones is cheaper and will likely be half as owned. Good luck tonight and feel free to comment down below with any questions!
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- Warriors Lakers Basketball: (AP Photo/John Locher)