featured Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

11/23/2018
James Davis

Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 12

Two big NFL slates in one week? I mean, sure? It's actually kind of funny, though, because in some ways it feels like we used up a lot of the great DFS NFL plays on Thursday, and now we're sort of picking at the DFS leftovers. Did you pick up on my well-crafted Thanksgiving metaphor? I thought so. I'm here all season, folks.

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Quarterback

Lamar JacksonLamar Jackson FD 7400 DK 5700
Opponent OAK
Proj Points FD - 21.7 DK - 21.72
So, we haven't seen a quarterback game like Jackson's week 11 performance in a while, huh? The Ravens had a 54:19 run-pass ratio, and Jackson himself had 26 carries. The Ravens are 10.5 favorites over Oakland this week, and it's hard to believe that they will run less in a game that Vegas sees them winning easily. Jackson is basically a good running back who will pass 20 times a game as well, and this makes him an absurdly high floor cash game play from where I'm sitting. Oakland has been the very worst team in the NFL against opposing passers this season, and while the Ravens are passing more to keep opposing defenses honest than anything else, the Raiders are one of the least equipped defenses to punish a young quarterback.

Ben RoethlisbergerBen Roethlisberger FD 7900 DK 6100
Opponent DEN
Proj Points FD - 21.43 DK - 21.67
I had a tough time figuring out who I wanted to list in the QB2 slot today. I'll break down the other guys I considered in a second, but for now let's give the case for Big Ben. Roethlisberger has quietly settled in as a solid high floor QB option even as James Conner has shown us that teams are as responsible for big RB performances as the players themselves. We're coming off a week 11 game where the Steelers elected to simply pivot away from the run and into the teeth of one of the best cornerback duos in the league rather than continue to run Conner, and one has to think that Ben's floor is even higher than usual right now. Pittsburgh elected to give Conner 9 targets last game as well, showing that perhaps Ben will get a good chunk of the "running game" as well. He's still got one of the very best WR pairs in the NFL, and Denver has been a bottom 8 team in terms of yards per attempt allowed this season. He just seems like such a high floor play.

Jameis WinstonJameis Winston FD 7500 DK 6000
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 21.53 DK - 21.56
Can I really go back to Jameis Winston after what the Bucs have done to us so far this season? Well, Vegas thinks you can. The Bucs are projected 28.25 points here, just 1 point off the slate-leading Colts, and this game rates to be close as well. Winston can still run, and he sure looked like a guy who could pass against the Giants - throwing for 199 yards on 12/16 passing. If you trust that performance and Vegas' total Winston is probably a better play than even Jackson, but we've seen Winston implode plenty of times this year, so I'm not so sure. One potential bonus here is the 49ers' defense. They've been somewhat solid in terms of YPA allowed, but they have just 2 interceptions on the season, demonstrating a real inability to punish mistakes. Still, I wonder if I'm just punishing myself by thinking about running Winston back out there for cash this week.

Also considered: Andrew Luck. The man has been a vision of consistency this season, and the Colts have the highest implied total on the slate. I wouldn't be shocked if a certain percentage of the DFS universe just throws up their hands at a fairly crazy position and just locks in a little certainty.
 

Running Back

Melvin GordonMelvin Gordon FD 8900 DK 8600
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 19.86 DK - 21.4
Gordon has emerged as one of the premium fantasy running backs in the entire NFL, and I suppose he needs to be to justify these lofty prices. He's dipped below 19 fantasy points exactly once this season, and he looks like a lock for 20 touches a game outside of the wackiest game scripts. You've got to be slightly concerned about the blowout in a game with a 12.5 point spread, but one has to think that Gordon will be a central cause to any blowouts that come about. The Charges have favored a ball control approach all season, particularly when ahead, with Phil Rivers going 6 straight games with 27 or fewer passing attempts in the middle of the season. With Zeke, Kamara, Gurley, and Hunt missing on the main slate, you're running low on big RB options, and Gordon looks like the cream of the remaining crop. Gordon was limited in Thursday's practice, though, so be sure to keep an eye on his status prior to kickoff.

James ConnerJames Conner FD 7900 DK 7800
Opponent DEN
Proj Points FD - 19.71 DK - 21.51
I just think Conner is under-priced here. I hate to be the guy who makes excuses for poor performance, but in Conner's case it seems warranted. He lost carries after getting concussed in the Panthers game, and then carried the ball just 9 times in the following week against Jacksonville. Still, the Steelers did try to give him the ball 18 times through the air and on the ground combined, and it was tough to run the ball after the fell behind in the second half. Conner is practicing in full this week, and Denver has been a bottom 10 team against the run this year. He looks too cheap to me, and I'm fine going back to the well.

Elsewhere at RB:
Some major things to consider at the position include:

Will Gus Edwards continue to dominate the Ravens' backfield? If so, he's an auto-play in cash at a free price tag.

Can you play David Johnson as a 12.5 point underdog? I'd rather keep him in my big tournament lineups.

What about Leonard Fournette and his 29.5 touches per game in his last two? On FanDuel I think he's a little pricey, but I'm kind of into on DraftKings with the Jags being 3 point favorites over the Bills, even if the game does have a laughably low 37 total.

Wide Receiver

Tyler BoydTyler Boyd FD 6800 DK 6000
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 14.89 DK - 17.71
The current buzz is that it "looks like" AJ Green will miss the Cleveland game. Boyd was a chalk option at a price point $1,000 more than this, and he's coming off a week where he was targeted 11 times. He hasn't been great with Green out, but he's a talented receiver that should have a tough time converting just 4 of 11 targets on the types of routes that he runs. Cleveland has been reasonable against the pass this season, but Boyd is by far the Bengals' best option in the passing game, and I'll play him everywhere if Green is out again.

Julian EdelmanJulian Edelman FD 7400 DK 7000
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 15.62 DK - 19.26
People seem to be sleeping on Julian Edelman, but that just has me excited. He's run off three straight double digit target games, and converted those 32 targets into 24 catches and 279 yards. He hasn't scored any touchdowns in those games, but that's just kept his price down. With opposing offenses needing to respect Gordon, Edelman has been getting his underneath routes seemingly for free, and I just love him against the Jets here. The Patriots have the highest total on the day, and while there is significant blowout risk that tends to be less of a big deal for possession receivers. I'm seeing a lack of great big money wide receivers, and Edelman fills the mid-range role nicely.

T.Y. HiltonT.Y. Hilton FD 7500 DK 6500
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 16.31 DK - 18.43
Well, it's been quite a while since I wrote up TY Hilton for cash games, but here we are. With Luck quietly rewriting himself as a high volume possession passer this season, it's been interesting to see Hilton's struggle to evolve as a pass-catcher. Well, these two figured it out last week - Hilton was targeted 9 times, and turned that into 9 catches for 155 yards and two touchdowns. The Dolphins won't be sleeping on him here, but it might not matter. The Dolphins have been a bottom 5 passing defense all season, and knowing a plan and stopping a plan are two very different things. Hilton was a solid $8k+ receiver in the past, and we still have some room for growth on his price if he's settling back in as the comfortable #1 option in Indy.

Also considered: Devante Parker, as your cheap punt option du jour. He had 11 targets in week 10, and has had almost two weeks to rest his strained AC joint. Tannehill should represent an upgrade for the Miami passing attack, and Parker is their best option. He's cheap, and enables a lot elsewhere thanks to his low price. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get significant cash game ownership if he gets a clean bill of health. Also a brief shoutout to Danny Amendola. The whole Miami passing game looks pretty cheap right now.

 

Tight End

Cameron BrateCameron Brate FD 4400 DK 3600
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 9.36 DK - 10.92
With OJ Howard out for the season, one has to think that Brate is in line to get the left over tight end targets. The TE has been an important part of the Tampa offense all season, and only a timeshare between Howard and Brate has stopped us from playing either. With Howard out of the picture, Brate is quite simply too cheap at a truly terrible position.

Zach ErtzZach Ertz FD 7600 DK 6400
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 14.81 DK - 18.23
I don't think you can pull this off on FanDuel, but on DraftKings Ertz's price looks way too low to me. Ertz's production has been more variable in the last three weeks, but he's the most targeted tight end in the league, and the 8th most targeted receiver overall. He caught 7 balls for 43 yards and a touchdown against the Giants in their earlier meeting this season, and whatever you saw last week, I believe he's still the best thing going if you want safety out of the tight end position right now.

 

This week in defense

On both FanDuel and DraftKings the Philadelphia Eagles are a very interesting cheap option. Yes, the Giants have electric playmakers in Barkley and Beckham, but they also have Eli Manning. The G-Men have the 4th lowest total on the slate, and the defenses with the truly elite match-ups (Baltimore, LAC, the Jags) are super expensive.

Outside of the Eagles, the Jets will almost certainly be playing deeply from behind against the New England Patriots. It's pretty close between the Pats and Birds on FD where the prices are comparable, but the Eagles are so cheap on DraftKings that I'll probably go with them there.

If I were going to pivot off the Eagles on DraftKings, the Baltimore Ravens are just $3,300 against the hapless Oakland Raiders. There are actually a number of pretty solid options on defense this week.

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