Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

01/06/2019
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks and Lineup Advice for FanDuel and DraftKings - Monday 1/7/19

We're through the weekend and trying to avoid those Monday blues. But it's easy when you've got a full slate of NBA action coming down the pike. Let's take a look at some of the lineup considerations for FanDuel and DraftKings.

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Point Guard

Emmanuel MudiayEmmanuel Mudiay FD - $6100 DK - $6100
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 35.06 DK - 35.62
Trey BurkeTrey Burke FD - $4000 DK - $3200
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 20.18 DK - 20.45
Frank Ntilikina is going to be out a few games, leaving most of the point guard minutes to (presumably) these two. Mudiay is clearly the safer of the two in the starting lineup and playing low 30’s minutes as long as the games stay close. He’ll match up against a backcourt of Lillard and C.J. McCollum who do give up production to opposing point guards. Mudiay is getting up close to 15 shots per game in the short term with the assist numbers hovering around six per. I don’t mind him at these price points even with the potential blowout (Portland opens as -11 home favorites).

And then there’s Burke who picked up 19 minutes off the bench on Friday against the Lakers. He can score in bunches quickly, getting up 12 shots and 16 points in just that limited time. I see him as a GPP flyer with the possibility as a DraftKings’ cash play if you think he plays 20 minutes. That’s really all he needs at a near minimum price there.

Ricky RubioRicky Rubio FD - $6400 DK - $5600
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 32.96 DK - 33.88
The Jazz had just started getting comfortable giving Dante Exum solid minutes off the bench and now he’s ruled out for Monday’s game. I think that opens up mid-30’s minutes for Rubio and I don’t mind playing him in cash on both sites, but especially on DraftKings. While I understand this is a tough matchup against an excellent defense in the Bucks, I think the potential minutes increase for Rubio i enough to warrant a play. He’s still scoring 13 points a game and the assist numbers are up a bit over last year to 6.3 per game. This game has a rather healthy 222 total with the Bucks -5. The score is thanks to an above average pace by the Bucks (105.1).

There are a bunch of PG considerations on Monday to go with the guys above. D.J. Augustin is in a good spot at his prices in a pace-up matchup against the Kings. I could also be talked into Lonzo Ball again though the Lakers are getting tough to trust.

Shooting Guard

Austin RiversAustin Rivers FD - $4500 DK - $4700
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 24.62 DK - 25.02
After getting traded to the Suns, cut and then signed off the scrap heap by the Rockets, the dude has played well alongside Harden in the short term. He’s playing huge minutes for the Rockets with Chris Paul and Eric Gordon out, averaging 39 over the last five games (one of those was an OT game). He’s getting up close to 13 shots per game and averaging 14 points, three assists and three rebounds. Those numbers won’t wow you, but it’s hard to argue with the minutes at these prices and think he’s fully in play against in cash against the Nuggets.

Josh HartJosh Hart FD - $6200 DK - $5800
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 32.91 DK - 32.59
Kentavious Caldwell-PopeKentavious Caldwell-Pope FD - $5500 DK - $5700
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 28.68 DK - 29.33
Man, it’s hard to know what to make of the Lakers here. They switched up their starting lineup (with no announcement) yesterday and slotted Zubac in alongside McGee while moving KCP back to the bench. Needless to say, it didn’t work and they got blown out. Some of this depends on the health of Kyle Kuzma of course but if the latter sat out again on Monday I’d go back to the well on both Hart and Caldwell-Pope at their respective prices. I don’t think we’d see the same kind of lineup shenanigans as Sunday and I’d expect big minutes out of both again. Hart's been shooting about 13 shots per game since Lebron's been out, including seven three-point attempts and running super cold from beyond the arc (27%). We could see a break out scoring game from him if the shot is falling and he continues to chuck. Like I said, keep an ear out for the Kuzma news.

I think folks will be tempted to play Luka Doncic in this spot and it wouldn't be necessarily incorrect. After all, the guy has looked amazing for stretches. My only concern at his current prices is that the Mavericks rarely want to overextend his minutes.

 

Small Forward

Brandon IngramBrandon Ingram FD - $6900 DK - $7800
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 37.83 DK - 38.32
I get that the Lakers were terrible on Sunday against the Timberwolves. That much isn’t lost on me. Getting blown out did crush the minutes on Ingram who finished with an underwhelming line. But if you look at the returns on Ingram in the short term with Lebron off the court you have to like the usage and the minutes. Before Sunday’s game, he had played 39, 41, and 37 and put up an average of 20 points, nine rebounds and six assists. Now the DraftKings price seems out of bounds but I think he’s still in play on FanDuel if you think the plan is to run him close to 40 minutes in a close game.

Gerald GreenGerald Green FD - $3800 DK - $3900
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 22.16 DK - 23.2
Much like with Rivers, the Rockets have needed a lot of minutes of Green of late because they’re so thin in the backcourt and wings. He’s incredibly scoring dependent, with 66% of his fantasy scoring coming from putting the ball in the basket. That’s not the highest ratio in the league, but it’s definitely up there. That being said, the variance around his fantasy production is what keeps his price points so low and he does fit the bill as a salary cap relief guy on this slate if you think he runs more than 30 minutes again off the bench.

With Iman Shumpert out again, Nemanja Bjelica would make an excellent DraftKings play as long as Marvin Bagley remained out for the Kings.

 

Power Forward

Aaron GordonAaron Gordon FD - $7200 DK - $6700
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 35.73 DK - 36.47
Gordon can come and go from a fantasy perspective, looking like a scoring and rebounding machine in some games, only to disappear off the radar for long stretches. I like the opportunity for him in this game against the Kings. Sacramento makes for close to a dream DFS matchup this season. They are playing at the second-fastest pace in the league with a bottom-third defensive efficiency. If you are looking for a volume scoring and rebounding game out of Gordon, this would be the spot to do it. In fact, earlier in the season Gordon went for 18 points and 10 rebounds (with defensive stats piled on as well) against Sacramento.

Kevin KnoxKevin Knox FD - $5900 DK - $5800
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 28.65 DK - 30.08
Like I’ve said before, Knox is one of the few Knicks’ guys who seems (at least for now) immune to the whims of the rotations or eventual blowouts. He’s seen his minutes come hell or high water and that makes him something of a safe play even as the price continues to incrementally tick up. Over the last week and a half he’s playing 39 minutes per game with an average of 15 points and five rebounds. If anything, he’s probably running bad from the field shooting only 36% and 33% from three. Both are below his season averages and we could see some scoring regression in the short term as long as he keeps up this kind of volume shooting.

I don’t mind LaMarcus Aldridge on DraftKings against the Pistons. It stands to reason he once again sees big minutes if the game stays close considering Detroit runs out Blake and Drummond for major minutes.

 

Center

DeAndre JordanDeAndre Jordan FD - $6800 DK - $6100
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 37.48 DK - 39.07
Though Jordan hasn’t been seeing huge minutes in the short term, he does draw a great matchup here against the Lakers who’ve struggled to defend opposing centers all season long. They allow 3% more scoring and 5% more rebounds than league average to the position DeAndre is a double-double candidate at reasonable prices on both sites. The scoring has come and gone in the short term, but he should find the opportunity here in a pace-up game against the Lakers with not much in the way of interior defense.

Clint CapelaClint Capela FD - $9000 DK - $7500
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 42.15 DK - 42.71
Capela remains criminally underpriced on DraftKings at only $7500. With the Rockets playing shorthanded in the short term, Capela has played close to 38 minutes per game over the last five (including one OT game) and averaged 18 points and 16 rebounds in that stretch. Those are just elite and make him one of the best values on the board on DraftKings. I’m not as interested in the FanDuel price which has definitely corrected thanks to his performance. This isn’t a good matchup against the Nuggets, but I think minutes against Jokic/ Plumlee will win out.

I like Nikola Vucevic as a possible big-money payoff against the Kings here. Sacramento has allowed a whopping 23% more rebounding than league average to opposing centers this season.

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image sources

  • Nikola_Vucevic_Dec_2013: By Mike (Flickr: (2013-12-21) Kings at Magic 30) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

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