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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

01/10/2019
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks and Lineup Advice for FanDuel and DraftKings - 1/11/19

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Point Guard

Damian LillardDamian Lillard FD - $8900 DK - $8700
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 44.81 DK - 46.52
If we’re trying to fade blowouts on this slate (and that’s going to be tough) then Lillard could rank up there as one of the better point guard plays. The position is very, very weak with so many teams possibly headed toward blowouts. Lillard is going through a rough patch, shooting 36% from the field and 24% from three over his last five games. He’s maintained solid assist numbers in that stretch (nine per game) but the scoring is definitely down. He’ll have a chance for bounce back game against the Hornets who have actually been above average against point guards this season. But I’m looking to play Lillard sub $9K on both sites thanks to the recent run bad from the field. Note: Lillard is currently questionable.

Lonzo BallLonzo Ball FD - $7100 DK - $6500
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 34.46 DK - 34.89
I get that he’s facing Utah. But this is also a Utah team playing in a state of flux without any of their actual point guards and working on a backcourt skeleton crew. So while, sure, that will likely continue to slow down their pace as they get into even more methodical sets, it does stand to reason they are a bit compromised on the defensive end as well. Lonzo’s production has been, well, variable to see the least. Dude’s been all over the place. The volume shooting comes and goes as does all of the other stats. But I still think he offers some kind of value at these prices considering the positional scarcity on FanDuel.

After these guys (and believe me, these guys are stretches) the player pool gets awfully thin at first glance. Here’s to hoping we get some injury news at some point during the day on Friday that opens things up. There might be a case for Jeff Teague against the Mavs.

I’d also consider Kemba Walker against the Blazers.

Shooting Guard

James HardenJames Harden FD - $12600 DK - $12500
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 70.87 DK - 75.24
Clearly Harden is playing on some other planet right now (which is something of an understatement). The run he’s on is the stuff that starts going into history books if he keeps it up. He’s consistently playing 40+ minutes per game and, in fact, since December 13th, Harden is averaging an obscene 40 points, 9.4 assists and seven rebounds per game. That’s as good a 14-game stretch as you’ll ever see. We are just witnesses at this point. The biggest concern here is that the game is over early. Houston is -15 home favorites against a woeful Cavaliers team. Harden could very well sit the 4th quarter if the game is out of hand (and the Rockets would probably love to get him some *rest*). But he’s such a tough fade right now even at these max prices. I’m still advocating a cash game play here because of the high floor but do recognize the minutes could come back to Earth if the game is out of hand.

Donovan MitchellDonovan Mitchell FD - $7900 DK - $7900
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 39.75 DK - 40.74
With Ricky Rubio, Dante Exum and now Raul Neto out, the Jazz are super thin at guard. In fact, they have almost no one left who’s played any kind of real minutes this season. Expect to see even more of the point of attack responsibilities go to Mitchell who’s coming off one of his better games this season against the Magic. He finished with 33 points and a seven assists. The latter is tied for the most in a game for Mitchell this season. Expect that trend to continue if he’s now their de facto point guard. Even if someone like Royce O’Neale entered the starting lineup, I’d still expect a lot of Mitchell in this game. He has a very high minutes floor and a good matchup against the Lakers.

If J.J. Redick were to sit again, Furkan Korkmaz would once again be a good cheap play. He’s coming less than $4K on both sites.

Josh Hart got burned off his minutes on Wednesday, but I still could look his way on FanDuel.

And finally, if the plan is to play Andrew Wiggins and Josh Okogie 37+ minutes each and the former is going to take 23+ shots per game then you are still looking at good value from these Timberwolves.

 

Small Forward

Giannis AntetokounmpoGiannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11800 DK - $11300
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 63.77 DK - 65.16
Giannis gunned a ball off Harden’s head last game, but also put up a monster stat line against the Rockets. He finished with 27 points and 21 rebounds thanks in large part to getting 37 minutes because the game stayed close. That’s often the only trouble with Giannis. The Bucks blow a lot of teams out and aren’t forced to press their superstar into a ton of run. Milwaukee is a -7 road favorite against the Wiz so it isn’t like a blowout is necessarily imminent. In a situation like this I’m comfortable projecting Giannis at around 36-37 minutes which works for his production at these price points.

Otto PorterOtto Porter FD - $5900 DK - $5800
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 33.41 DK - 32.72
Porter is still coming off the bench, but he saw his minutes increase to the most since coming back from injury. He played 33 in the win over the Sixers on the second half of the home-and-home. Porter is shooting well since coming back (47% from the field, 43% from three) and getting up looks in this offense with no Wall on the court. There’s still usage to go around for this Wiz team and though this is a tough matchup against a defensively sound Bucks’ team, Porter’s salaries are too low if we consider the minutes are still on the rise. The real win will be if/when he returns to the starting lineup.

Joe InglesJoe Ingles FD - $6000 DK - $5700
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 32.17 DK - 32.64
Jae CrowderJae Crowder FD - $4800 DK - $4400
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 27.01 DK - 27.57
Royce O'NealeRoyce O'Neale FD - $3500 DK - $3300
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 20.63 DK - 20.61
With Rubio and Exum out, Ingles took a more prominent role in the offense last game against the Magic. He took 15 shots and finished with 16 points and seven assists, often controlling the point of action in the Jazz offense. The Jazz should continue with the same plan of attack against the Lebron James-less Lakers’ team on Friday. They are wing heavy, which could give Ingles issues, but the pace of play should help with some of the volume stats. Plus, with Neto out, the Jazz are almost completely out of ball handlers.

And not to do the whole *write up every single Jazz guy* thing, but well, I kind of have to. They are just so incredibly thin right now. O’Neale could enter the starting lineup in some hybrid guard/ PG fashion. They’ve started him for Rubio in the past when Exum was injured. Plus Crowder could see a lot of minutes off the bench against a wing-heavy Lakers’ team.

 

Power Forward

Domantas SabonisDomantas Sabonis FD - $7700 DK - $7500
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 42.19 DK - 44.25
Thaddeus YoungThaddeus Young FD - $6000 DK - $5600
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 33.03 DK - 31.87
Myles Turner is currently questionable to play on Friday. If he were to sit again then we could go back to Domantas Sabonis and to a lesser extent Thaddeus Young against the Knicks. Over his last four games (three in the starting lineup), Sabonis is averaging 18.5 points, 9.8 rebounds and 4.5 assists. His price is up because of the increase in production and minutes, but he’s still something of a bargain against a weak defense in the Knicks.

I like Young’s minutes floor as well. He’s gotten up double-digit shots in each of the last three games without Turner in the lineup. He doesn’t have the same kind of upside as Sabonis unless the shot is really falling (a la the game against Cleveland) but that’s reflected in his price.

Zach CollinsZach Collins FD - $4300 DK - $3700
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 21.77 DK - 21.5
With Maurice Harkless out last game, Jake Layman got the start but Zach Collins was the real winner in the deal. He played 26 minutes off the bench and finishe with 16 points and nine rebounds. The shooting was all kinds of run hot, going 6-9 from the field (2-3 from three)

Maxi Kleber got the start *in place of* Dennis Smith Jr. On Wednesday. If the Mavericks kept the same starting lineup on Friday against the Timberwolves (and they very well could) then Kleber would easily be one of the best values on the slate. Kleber finished with 13 points and 9 rebounds in 34 minutes against the Suns. Even at something like a 25 minute projection he’d be in lineups on both sites considering he’s coming $4K and below.

 

Center

Rudy GobertRudy Gobert FD - $8400 DK - $8000
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 46.27 DK - 45.81
Gobert is never going to be a prolific scorer even though he’s always been efficient around the basket. That’s because he’s essentially only taking dunk/ around the rim looks. But it still adds up to around 15 points per game on less than nine attempts. He makes up for it by dominating the glass (12+ rebounds per game) and pitching in defensive stats (2 blocks per game). He could be a popular play on Friday against a Lakers team allowing 3% more scoring and 6% more rebounds to opposing centers this season. I slightly prefer the DraftKings’ price, but he’s a cash game play on both sites.

After Gobert we have some real decisions. You can roster up on Joel Embiid but the Sixers are big time favorites against the Hawks.

I’m still something of a believer in Karl-Anthony Towns but his price is getting up there and I don’t want to prioritize him over Giannis or Harden.

The middle ground is someone like Kevon Looney who should see around 24 minutes and could get work done against a weak Chicago low post even in the potential blowout.

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