Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

01/14/2019
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Monday 1/14/19

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Point Guard

Derrick WhiteDerrick White FD - $5900 DK - $5400
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 29.12 DK - 28.72
White isn’t going to be a volume scorer as long as he’s sharing the court with DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, but the minutes on the Spurs’ point guard have been mostly steady. Over his last five games (which included the double OT game against the Rockets and a foul-ridden one against the Grizzlies) White is averaging 15.8 points, 4.6 rebounds and three assists. He’ll also chip in on the defensive end with a steal here and there. It adds up to close to value on these prices and I’m fairly confident the plan is to play him upwards of 30 minutes in close games. I like the DraftKings’ price a bit more, but as you’ll see, the FanDuel point guard options aren’t overwhelming.

Reggie JacksonReggie Jackson FD - $5000 DK - $4800
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 25.34 DK - 26.71
Yes, I get this is against the Jazz and I also recognize that this slate has a bunch of bad matchups headed our way. Though the Pistons are getting Ish Smith back, it’s unlikely he comes out and plays a lot of minutes. They pushed Jackson to 40 last time around and he finished with 10 points and four assists. Mostly, I’m looking to get away from the point guard position without spending all that much because there are some bigger payoffs at other positions. The point guard pool is thin on this slate and we might be left with some underwhelming plays (like R-Jax).

If you want to spend up a little more, I do see Kyrie Irving as a viable option. His usage has ticked up some in the short term and the Celtics could sure use more consistent scoring out of their superstar. But Irving is also questionable with a hip issue. If he couldn’t go, then Terry Rozier instantly jump to the top of the point guard list.

Shooting Guard

James HardenJames Harden FD - $13300 DK - $12400
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 68.38 DK - 73.16
Have we reached peak James Harden pricing? It sure seems like that would be the case, and yet what this guy has done over the last month or so defies so much logic that maybe we haven’t seen the top yet. Since December 13th (16 games), Harden is averaging an absurd 40.2 points, 9.5 assists, 7.2 rebounds and 1.9 steals per game. These are just stupid numbers for that long of a stretch. Even in a slower game against the Grizzlies on Monday Harden is still very much in play. His usage is still through the roof and this seems like a slate to go stars and scrubs. Harden is the epitome of star right now and there’s no reason to fade him here.

Austin RiversAustin Rivers FD - $4900 DK - $4700
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 25.36 DK - 26.27
He’s not coming as cheap any more, but Rivers is still something of a value play to pair with Harden. The former is averaging big minutes in the starter’s role, covering for Chris Paul in the short term. Rivers is playing more than 36 minutes a game and even though he’s sharing the court with Harden, the usage is still there with Rivers getting up close to 11 shots per game. He’s averaging 15 points and three assists per game over the last five. The scoring won’t overwhelm you, but he has a higher floor at these price points simply because the Rockets run him for so many minutes.

Donovan MitchellDonovan Mitchell FD - $8800 DK - $9200
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 42.61 DK - 43.62
The price jumped in the short term, but the situation has also changed for Mitchell. The Jazz are without Ricky Rubio, Dante Exum and Raul Neto meaning the point guard duties in Utah have been turned over to their sophomore guard. Mitchell responded last game by playing 38 minutes against the Bulls and putting up 34 points, six assists and six rebounds. He went 11-24 from the field and jacked up 13 three-pointers (making four). He also got to the line 10 times. If this is the kind of usage we can expect out of Mitchell in this new role then he might have even run a little bad in the scoring department. If you aren’t paying up for Harden then Mitchell is something of an acceptable pivot.

 

Small Forward

Joe InglesJoe Ingles FD - $6300 DK - $6100
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 31.84 DK - 32.38
Royce O'NealeRoyce O'Neale FD - $4900 DK - $4700
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 22.53 DK - 22.62
Ingles and O’Neale are two others who benefit from the injury issues with the Utah point guards. Ingles got up 14 shots last game (three more than his season average) and scored 16 points with four assists. I do think that’s the low end of what we can expect with the current lineup construction of the Jazz. Even with Mitchell dominating much of the on-ball time, Ingles is still a key cog in the offense. Expect to see a few more minutes out of him on Monday.

Meanwhile, O’Neale entered the starting lineup against the Bulls and played 37 minutes. He only scored eight points on 3-8 shooting, but he also pulled down 11 rebounds and chipped in four assists. It’s mostly the minutes I’m looking at here. Though he’s not a fantasy dynamo, the scoring floor remains high is Utah is going to give him this kind of court time.

Danuel HouseDanuel House FD - $4600 DK - $4200
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 21.88 DK - 22.32
Gerald GreenGerald Green FD - $4600 DK - $4000
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 23.69 DK - 25.13
Both could fit a need on Monday if we aren’t given much in the way injury news/ punt plays around the rest of the slate. House remains in the starting lineup and over his last six games is averaging around 30 minutes per contest. The Rockets mainly ask him to take corner threes (and that’s about it) but since January 3 he’s averaging 10 points, four rebounds, and two assists. He’s getting up around seven shots per game and is shooting 48% from three. That’s likely a little run hot, but getting up more than four three-point attempts per game is encouraging.

Green meanwhile, is still coming off the bench but often plays crunch-time minutes for Houston. Much like House, Green is mostly just asked to take open threes off Harden drive and kicks, but he will get the shots up. Green saw a five-game stretch in which he averaged more than 11 shots per game and had a three of four-game run in which he got up double-digit three-point attempts. The guy can chuck when he’s on the court. Most of his fantasy relevance is wrapped up in the scoring so when the shot isn’t falling you can get burned even at these lose prices. But that’s also a big reason the salary numbers remain on the low side.

 

Power Forward

Anthony DavisAnthony Davis FD - $12700 DK - $11600
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 67.12 DK - 65.85
Remember when I said the “stars and scrubs” approach could be the plan with James Harden on Monday? Well, Davis is the other part of that “stars” equation. Davis is also expensive, but worth the price on this slate if you can pair him with Harden. AD (even between trips to the locker room) is averaging huge numbers. Over his last four games, he’s put up 32 points, 15 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per. The Pelicans, as they fight to stay in the Western Conference playoff race, need every minute out of Davis and he’s playing more than 36 per game. The Clippers aren’t a great matchup, but that’s something of the theme on Monday’s slate with a bunch of slow/ defensively sound teams taking the court.

Jaren Jackson Jr.Jaren Jackson Jr. FD - $6500 DK - $5100
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 27.59 DK - 26.5
JaMychal GreenJaMychal Green FD - $4900 DK - $4800
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 24.76 DK - 24.79
The key for Jackson is staying on the court. He has a propensity for getting in foul trouble which tends to burn of the minutes in certain matchups. When he’s on the court, he can fill it up from a fantasy perspective. 15.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.8 blocks and 1.5 steals per game. That easily gets the job done on his DraftKings’ price if the guy can stay on the court. That might not be such an easy task against the Rockets who tend to get to the line a lot (thanks to Harden) but this still rates as a plus matchup for Jackson.

On the flip side, Green often benefits if Jackson gets in foul trouble and is coming at a much cheaper price point. Like Jackson, the minutes aren’t necessarily *safe* but Green does play around 25 per game and over his last five has averaged 13 points and nine rebounds. On a tougher slate to find cheaper value, Green rings in as something close to a punt play as of the time of this writing.

 

Center

Julius RandleJulius Randle FD - $8100 DK - $7400
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 42.46 DK - 44.96
Even with Nikola Mirotic back in the mix, Randle remains in the starting lineup for the Pelicans. He’s found a way to co-exist (from a fantasy perspective) while playing big minutes alongside Anthony Davis. He’ll draw a favorable matchup against the Clippers who are allowing 5% more scoring and 2% more rebounding than league average to opposing big men. In closer games Randle is good for around 34 minutes and he’s averaging about 20 points, nine rebounds and four assists over his last five games. The DraftKings price is particularly advantageous and he’s looking like a fairly easy play on that site.

Bismack BiyomboBismack Biyombo FD - $4200 DK - $4200
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 22.45 DK - 21.32
Pau GasolPau Gasol FD - $3600 DK - $3100
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 17.44 DK - 17.2
I’m putting these guy in as possible cheap pivots if you want to go a stars and scrubs approach and fitting Harden/ Davis is the main goal. Neither stand to play a ton of minutes but have solid fantasy expectations even with limited run. Bismack remains in the starting lineup and could go upwards of 25 minutes in this matchup. With that kind of court time, double-digit rebounding numbers are in play. He’snot much of a scorer, but getting to the glass and pitching in with at least a block per game won’t totally burn you.

On the flip side, the Spurs have Gasol in the starting lineup and likely will again against the Hornets on Monday. If he could get to 20 minutes like he did against the Grizzlies last week, then he’s unlikely to crush you coming at near minimum pricing on both sites. It’s not an exciting play, but that’s something of the theme of this slate as a whole.

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