Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

01/14/2019
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Tuesday 1/15/19

Tuesday in the NBA give you the chance to play a bunch of OKC guys and then fill in the rest of your lineup along the margins. Such is the case when Atlanta takes the court against anyone. Let’s break down the NBA slate for FanDuel and DraftKings.

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Point Guard

Russell WestbrookRussell Westbrook FD - $12000 DK - $11600
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 64.91 DK - 66.82
I suppose we can somewhat forgive Westbrook’s *off* game on Saturday when he only had 24 points and 10 rebounds in the win over the Spurs. Hell, he was only a game removed from the double overtime 24 point, 24 assist, 13 rebound loss to San Antonio two days before. Now Russ gets a much easier matchup against the Hawks who run the fastest pace in the league and play the 25th ranked defensive efficiency. Westbrook is the clear cash game play on this slate with the Thunder -9 road favorites. It suggests the Hawks can at least stay in the game and the Thunder might not get buzzed on minutes because of the blowout. Russ is averaging his triple-double and will likely be a chalk play on this slate.

Lonzo BallLonzo Ball FD - $7100 DK - $6700
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 37.33 DK - 37.83
The Lakers are coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Cavaliers on Sunday. They are now 3-7 since Lebron James went down with the groin injury and Lonzo’s minutes and production have been erratic in Lebron’s absence. I do think the plan is to play the former high 30’s minutes when things are going *well*. He went 41 against the Cavs and finished with 13 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists. I think we can expect some similar run in this game against the hapless Bulls. Ball is a value on both sites but you need to live with some of the variance in his game.

Jeremy Lin continues to see quality minutes off the bench for the Hawks. This isn’t a great matchup against the Thunder, but Lin might still have some value because he can put it together on a points per minute basis.

Shooting Guard

Dennis SchroderDennis Schroder FD - $5300 DK - $5400
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 26.91 DK - 27.63
I see Schroder as a nice pairing with Westbrook and George (who we will get to in a minute) seeing as how the matchup is choice and if the game turns into a blowout it likely because these three poured on the scoring. Schroder will play crunch time with the starting unit if the game stays close and he sees enough non-Westbrook minutes to keep the usage in a reasonable range. He’s struggling from the field in the short term, shooting under 36% from the field over his last six games. That’s some serious run back with the scoring and he’s due for a bounce-back game in that respect.

Josh HartJosh Hart FD - $5200 DK - $5200
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 26.68 DK - 26.62
Oh man, talk about a guy running bad shooting the ball. Over his last five games, Hart is shooting 29% from the field and 18% from three. These are just bottom of the barrel numbers and it’s actually making it tough for Luke Walton to keep him on the floor. I do think he turns things around and regression on some of those numbers would mean a serious buy-low opportunity even at these mid-tier prices. Playing the Bulls would represent a chance to take advantage of a soft defense and if Hart does pick things up (especially from beyond the arc) then there’s tremendous upside on this play.

If Gary Harris sits again then we would have another value opportunity with guys like Torrey Craig and Malik Beasley. The question is whether we have the news in time.

 

Small Forward

Paul GeorgePaul George FD - $9700 DK - $9200
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 52.3 DK - 52.31
Stacking the OKC guys on Tuesday seems to make a lot of sense. They aren’t necessarily completely cost-prohibitive considering the matchup and there’s such a high floor on their fantasy scoring. George is averaging more than 22 shots per game over the last month and has found a way to co-exist with Westbrook. It’s led to higher usage and he’s still a value on both sites in this matchup. Like I said, I love stacking most of the relevant OKC plays on Tuesday because they give you such a high floor against an Atlanta team that’s running and gunning from the jump.

Brandon IngramBrandon Ingram FD - $6900 DK - $6600
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 37.94 DK - 38.65
Few players in the game have 37+ minutes as an average amount of run, but that’s basically what you’re getting with Ingram these days. With Lebron out of the lineup, that’s basically what you are getting out of the guy and he’s been one of the team’s usage leaders in the short term. Over the last seven games, Ingram is averaging 16 shots per game and an 18 point, seven rebound, three assist average. It’s mostly the minutes I’m interested in here and he has such a high floor because of the above average court time relative to price.

Continue to consider T.J. Warren even with Devin Booker coming back.

 

Power Forward

Omari SpellmanOmari Spellman FD - $3500 DK - $3800
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 26.82 DK - 26.14
With Dewayne Dedmon out last game, Spellman got the start and ran 30 minutes. He finished with 13 points and 6 rebounds while also chipping in four blocks. The defensive stats aren’t likely to be replicated, but you can expect him to get a similar a similar amount of run with Dedmon doubtful to play on Tuesday. Look, this is the Hawks so things can change at a moment’s notice without any hint. That’s what happens with bad teams after all. But Atlanta has at least been somewhat feisty in the short term, hanging with some teams much better than them. If Spellman is back in the starting lineup, expect him to be a popular punt on Tuesday.

Jerami GrantJerami Grant FD - $5400 DK - $5100
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 31.4 DK - 30.17
I know we’ve gone full-on Thunder for this set of picks, but such is the case when you get the Hawks showing up on your schedule. From a basketball perspective, Grant is the consummate role player, able to play and defend multiple positions which helps him stay on the court for long stretches. He isn’t going to get a ton of usage in this offense, sharing the court with Russ and PG, but he’s also a willing defender (seven blocks over the last three games) and will typically chip in enough around the periphery to stay fantasy relevant. Again, I’m all about stacking the Thunder on Tuesday and Grant is just another way to pull it off.

If Myles Turner was ruled out once again, then Domantas Sabonis and Thaddeus Young would once again be in play. But Turner practiced on Monday and it looks like for all intents and purposes he’ll be back in the rotation on Tuesday.

 

Center

Steven AdamsSteven Adams FD - $7300 DK - $7000
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 38.15 DK - 37.94
The last of the OKC guys mostly because we are out of positions. Adams should be able to put in work against the Spellman/ Len front court and now the question, at least on FanDuel, only becomes which four Thunder we roster on Tuesday. With Nerlens Noel injured, the Thunder are short a center and that has meant even more minutes for Adams in the short term. He’s a double-double candidate in this matchup against a weak Hawks’ front court. The steals have been on point for Adams and he’s recorded two per game over the last six games. Against a sloppy team like Atlanta, those stats come even more into play.

Brook LopezBrook Lopez FD - $5500 DK - $4700
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 26.61 DK - 26.1
I see Bro-Lo as more of a DraftKings’ play on Tuesday against the Heat. He doesn’t play a traditional center position for the Bucks. They use him more as a stretch five with Giannis and that does cause some mismatch issues for opposing teams who don’t want to follow him out to the perimeter. That could cause Miami some problems and at a weaker position I’m fine spending in the middle tier for Lopez’s three-point upside.

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image sources

  • Thunder Lakers Basketball: (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

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