Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

01/18/2019
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Friday 1/18/19

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Point Guard

Stephen CurryStephen Curry FD - $10400 DK - $10000
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 49.83 DK - 52.92
Curry just continues to defy much of what we thought were reasonable logistical levels for efficiency in long-distance shooting. Over his last seven games, he’s averaging more than 15 three-point attempts per game and shooting 48% from beyond the arc. It’s meant a 34 point per game average while also *chipping in* with six assists and five rebounds. In another Western Conference leverage matchup, it makes sense to once again project him near max minutes against the Clippers. Even with the price coming up (understandably) on both sites, the volume shooting still has him in cash game consideration on this Friday slate.

Elfrid PaytonElfrid Payton FD - $5800 DK - $6400
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 27.92 DK - 28.28
I see Elfrid as a much better FanDuel play on this slate where the price still hasn’t crested over $6K because he isn’t playing minutes over 30 really since coming back from the injury. I do suspect we continue to see them trend up though in the short term and he’s shown in the past the propensity to rack up fantasy points. He has double-double potential if things break right. Last game he has 12 assists, the two previous games he finished with double-digit points. There will be a game in which he puts it all together. I like his chances against the backcourt tandem of Lillard and McCollum who have allowed more than average scoring to opposing point guards.

We could see Damian Lillard as a popular play on DraftKings at only $8600. The Pelicans give it up to opposing guards this season, allowing about 5% more scoring to combo guards and the pace of the game could mean a volume shooting game for Dame. He’s a little too expensive for my tastes on FanDuel.

Shooting Guard

DeMar DeRozanDeMar DeRozan FD - $8300 DK - $7800
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 42.61 DK - 42.81
Though some of the Spurs’ minutes can come and go, that isn’t the case with DeRozan who’s seen steady run through thick and thin of the short term. That being said, the fantasy production really hasn’t been there relative to these price points. The scoring is down a bit because of a slight drop off in usage. But he still does add in other stats, averaging seven assists and seven rebounds per game over his last seven games. I’m fairly confident on the scoring floor in this game against a Minnesota team that doesn’t defend the perimeter all that well. DDR won’t take threes (hasn’t attempted a single one in the last eight games) but we could see a return to close to 20 shots in this matchup.

Klay ThompsonKlay Thompson FD - $7200 DK - $6600
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 35.53 DK - 35.95
I love the Klay’s price on DraftKings where the extra half-point for the three-ball really helps him out in this salary tier. While it’s a little easier to fit the GSW guys on FD, I do see Klay as a clear payoff on DK. He’s averaging 11 threes per game over his last five and knocking them down at a 46% rate. The Warriors have the highest implied total on this slate (no surprise) so getting exposure to them in a game that rates to stay close is likely the way to go.

 

Small Forward

Kevin DurantKevin Durant FD - $10600 DK - $10100
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 49.37 DK - 50.2
Much like Curry, we can take Durant to max minutes in this matchup against the Clippers. He’s coming off his best game in some time when he put up 30 points and 15 rebounds against the Pelicans on Wednesday. He also took the most shots (24) since all the back in late November. With Curry shooting so much (and so well) Durant hasn’t had to pour in the volume scoring, but that’s also keeping his price relatively in check. Stacking the Warriors on this slate is going to make a lot of sense and the Clippers have the personnel to at least (mostly) keep it close. And yes, I get that DeMarcus Cousins is entering the starting lineup for the Warriors, but I don’t see that as having much of a short-term effect on the GSW guys from a fantasy perspective.

Rudy GayRudy Gay FD - $5100 DK - $5200
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 26.33 DK - 26.46
Gay returned from a five-game injury absence on Wednesday and played 22 minutes, scoring 14 points and adding four rebounds. I suspect we see him trend back to the 25-27 he was playing before the injury and that would almost be enough to make him a cash game consideration on FanDuel. He’ll get up double-digit shots even in somewhat limited minutes and has even shot the three ball this season (averaging three attempts per game back in December). Again, this is somewhat counting on the minutes being at least over 25.

 

Power Forward

LaMarcus AldridgeLaMarcus Aldridge FD - $8200 DK - $7600
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 42.15 DK - 41.67
Aldridge had some foul trouble against the Mavericks on Wednesday and ended up playing only 23 minutes. It was an underwhelming performance, but I expect to see the run trend back up in this matchup against Minnesota. He’s been on something of an *every other game* trend in the short term which explains why the price hasn’t come up much. This isn’t to say there’s anything predictive about this staggered effect, but I do think it allows us to buy him a little low against the Timberwolves. He has double-double potential especially if the game stays close and has 9 or more rebounds in three of the last four games.

Aaron GordonAaron Gordon FD - $7200 DK - $6400
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 32.55 DK - 33.21
Gordon has played 35 or more minutes in five of his last six games and averaged 18 points and nine rebounds in that stretch. He could be in for a big game against a Nets’ team that is among the worst in the league at defending the interior. Gordon is a slightly better deal on DraftKings and I do think he has a real shot to reach the double-double bonus in this matchup. He mostly gets a nod on FanDuel because the position is so weak.

Similarly, I like Draymond Green in this matchup against the Clippers. Though DeMarcus Cousins enters the mix on the interior, I doubt he plays all that much in this game. Green should once again push minutes into the high 30’s with Vegas rating the game as staying close.

I suspect folks do try jamming in Anthony Davis on FanDuel mostly because the player pool at power forward is so bad, but you are paying peak prices for him on a team getting healthier.

 

Center

Ante ZizicAnte Zizic FD - $4200 DK - $3700
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 24.43 DK - 24.1
Tristan Thompson is going to miss this game against the Jazz and the Cavaliers completely stink, so we could see a lot of minutes out of Zizic. It’s a terrible matchup against Rudy Gobert, but the price and likely minutes’ increase should win the day for Zizic. When Thompson went down last game, Zizic came in and played 27 minutes, scoring 16 points and adding eight rebounds. If he’s in the starting lineup against a bigger Utah squad, then I’m fine essentially punting the position away even understanding the Cavs are big underdogs.

Jarrett AllenJarrett Allen FD - $7200 DK - $6100
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 34.05 DK - 34.54
I'm typically loathed to recommend Nets’ guys as cash game considerations because they just yank around the minutes on an almost nightly basis. But we’ve seen rather *consistent* run out of Allen in the short term. He played 33 and 37 minutes in regulation over the last two games, averaging 20 points and 18 rebounds. Those rebounding numbers aren’t going to sustain of course, but if the minutes last again here against the Magic then we are still buying at a discount, especially on DraftKings. He’s not quite the same bargain on FanDuel where the price has increased thanks to the recent performance.

Obviously strongly consider Nikola Vucevic against a Nets team that’s been brutalized by opposing centers. If there was a matchup in which to project max minutes for Vuce, this is the one.

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