Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

01/20/2019
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Monday 1/21/19

Monday in the NBA brings us a full-day slate of holiday action. Games start at 12:30 EST and run through the evening. For this article, we'll mostly focus on the FanDuel main slate of games, but for a more detailed look make sure to join our premium membership section for access to our tools and chat room.

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Point Guard

Stephen CurryStephen Curry FD - $10000 DK - $9400
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 49.17 DK - 52.32
Curry’s always been a prolific shooter, but what he’s been doing lately is even beyond what we’ve come to expect from the phenom. He’s taking 15 three-pointers a game over the last eight games and knocking them down at a 47% rate. That’s, simply, just nuts. In that span he’s averaging 33 points, five rebounds and six assists. There are some blowout concerns going up against this Lebron-less Lakers’ team, but on a crazy slate of NBA action Curry seems a rather see play.

Elfrid PaytonElfrid Payton FD - $5500 DK - $8800
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 28.94 DK - 29.45
With Anthony Davis out for the Pelicans, it’s an all-hands-on-deck situation in New Orleans. That means we are buying most of their team on a discount and why you are going to see a lot of Pels in this writeup. Payton ceded minutes to the backup point guards in the last game, but I don’t think that’s going to be as much the case going forward without AD. If anything, the Pels are going to need to reformulate their offense some and Payton does have the ability to get to the rim. On FanDuel, that makes him a great value.

Strongly consider Mike Conley against the Pelicans. Conley has been able to put together some scoring games and can add in the rebounding and assist numbers here and there. The key for him in this matchup is the pace up nature of the New Orleans attack.

Shooting Guard

James HardenJames Harden FD - $14000 DK - $13200
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 66.64 DK - 70.17
Paying $14K for a guy in a daily fantasy basketball contest? It sure seems nuts and yeah here we are with Harden. The guy is on a historic run, unlike almost anything we’ve ever seen. In just the month of January (9 games) he’s averaging 44 points, 10 rebounds and 15 assists per game (wind-aided by a few OT affairs) with usage that is just off the charts. He’s averaging close to 30 shots per game plus 14 trips to the line. This is just nuts. And just when you think he’s getting overpriced, he drops 76 fantasy points last game against the Lakers. This isn’t a great matchup against a defensively-sound Sixers’ team, but fading Harden just still feels so wrong.

Josh HartJosh Hart FD - $4900 DK - $5200
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 23.57 DK - 23.45
With Lonzo Ball out, it stands to reason Hart moves back into the starting lineup as a combo guard in the Lakers’ lineup. It’s speculation, but should mean more minutes even in a game in which LA could get totally waxed. Hart does have some experience in the Lakers’ offense as a primary ball-handler and they are just running super thin at guard with Ball, Rondo and Lebron James (not a guard, but basically plays point when he’s around) out. Hart has shown the ability to put up numbers across the stat line depending upon his role. That’s the kind of situation I see here on Monday. Even with the blowout risk, I’m willing to run the risk of lost minutes in a blowout.

 

Small Forward

Nikola MiroticNikola Mirotic FD - $6100 DK - $8400
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 35.26 DK - 36.27
Darius MillerDarius Miller FD - $3500 DK - $3400
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 19.82 DK - 20.59
Like I said, there’s going to be some Pelicans’ value with Anthony Davis out of the mix. There’s really no way around it. And while New Orleans is much as a team, there is plenty of fantasy value to go around. It isn’t a huge sample size, but with Davis off the court, Mirotic seeing something like a 5% usage bump as well as an uptick in rebounding. It also stands to reason that he reenters the starting lineup and plays huge minutes. Such is the nature of the Pelicans’ fortunes at this point. They are going to need every single minutes from all of their relevant players. That’s why a matchup against the slow-paced Grizzlies isn’t even all that problematic, there are just enough minutes to go around.

Meanwhile, Miller should very well see minutes close to 30 as well and that would put him in consideration for cash games on this slate. He needs to hit the three ball to have anything close to fantasy relevance but that could come out in the wash considering the Pelicans are freeing up so much in the way of minutes/ usage/ rebounds when Davis is off the court.

Lance StephensonLance Stephenson FD - $3500 DK - $4000
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 20 DK - 20.76
Wilson ChandlerWilson Chandler FD - $4000 DK - $3700
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 21.8 DK - 22.24
I'm putting both of these guys in the "I'm cheap and allow you to pay up elsewhere" category for Monday. Stephenson could see a bunch more minutes as ballhandler with Lonzo Ball off the court and also has some value if the game turns into a blowout (which feels likely). Stephenson can fill it up on a per-minute basis and he could stand to get a bump on this slate.

Chandler played a ton of minutes last game and is still coming cheap. He's never going to find much usage when sharing the court with Embiid, Simmons, Butler, etc, but there are times when the minutes win out. He should hit low 30's and is still coming close to the minimum on both sites.

 

Power Forward

Marvin BagleyMarvin Bagley FD - $5800 DK - $5200
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 30.42 DK - 30.21
Bagley started the second half of the Pistons’ game over Bjelica and that should be a sign of things to come for the rookie. It’s obvious the Kings want to play him more minutes and when that’s the case we are buying low on his fantasy profile. In 24 minutes per games since returning from the injury, he’s averaging 13 points, 7.5 rebounds and a steal per game. If those minutes creep toward 30 (and I think they will) then he’s coming at a crazy value. That’s not confirmed at this point, but he also hasn’t started a half in the past either. Keep an ear out for what the Kings’ plan is, but Bagley is almost a play regardless.
Along with Bagley, I do think you can consider Harry Giles coming near punt prices

Jaren Jackson Jr.Jaren Jackson Jr. FD - $6100 DK - $8000
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 31.82 DK - 30.64
Even with Marc Gasol back in the mix on Monday, I think Jaren Jackson is still in play. The Pelicans are greatly compromised without Anthony Davis on the court and he should be able to take advantage of a weakened Pelicans' front court on defense. Jackson’s biggest issue is falling into foul trouble and having the minutes subsequently burned off. That’s less of a concern on Monday against this New Orleans squad. This could be a potential double-double game for the Memphis rookie considering he won’t see much in the way of resistance on either end of the court.

 

Center

DeMarcus CousinsDeMarcus Cousins FD - $5100 DK - $5700
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 37.31 DK - 37.67In his first game back from an ACL tear, it only took Boogie Cousins 15 minutes to go for 14 points, six rebounds, three assists and (in very Boogie fashion) six fouls. Word has it that Cousins will play upwards of 20 minutes against the Lakers and the price hasn’t come up at all. At these salaries, I think it’s reasonable to play Boogie at only 20 minutes. I don’t think he’s at risk of *losing* run in a possible blow out because the Warriors are only concerned about conditioning with him right now.

Nikola VucevicNikola Vucevic FD - $9400 DK - $9500
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 49.39 DK - 50.47
Look, he's one of the best offensive players inn the NBA right now. On the season, he’s averaging 20 points, 12 rebounds and four assists per game and that’s even with, at times, compromised minutes because the Magic will get their doors blown off. But here, he gets the fastest paced team in the league in the Hawks who play the 22nd defensive efficiency. They are a DFS dream matchup and it’s only a shame there are more relevant Magic plays to make. But Vuce is definitely in the mix because of just how much he can dominate multiple facets of the game.

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