Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday 2/6/19
NBA Trade Season is in high gear right now and we woke up to overnight news that the Sixers and Clippers had pulled off a blockbuster centered around sending Tobias Harris to Philly. Today and tomorrow will no doubt have a lot more player movement and this time of year can be a crazy state of flux. Let's take a look at who is popping up as value plays for Wednesday's slate of games.
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Stephen Curry FD - $9200 DK - $9100
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 48.35 DK - 51.36
The Warriors are big, -11, home favorites against the Spurs on Wednesday with DeMar DeRozan already ruled out for rest. That could lead to some problematic issues around GSW’s minutes if the game gets out of hand. But point guard is weaker on this slate and the Spurs are playing without Derrick White who’s one of their better perimeter defenders. Not that it matters all that much against a guy like Curry who incidentally is coming off his worst game in a while, a 14-point on 5-15 shooting performance in the win against the Lakers. That won’t happen often considering how’ he’s daggered most teams this season. Again, the only real concern I have is the possibility of a blowout because of how high-powered the Warriors are right now.
Jalen Brunson FD - $4100 DK - $4300
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 24.34 DK - 25.49
After the Mavericks traded away three-fifths of their starting lineup to the Knicks in the Kristaps Porzingis trade, Brunson filled in for some of those vacated backcourt minutes. He’s played 33 minutes in each of the last two games and been fine enough with 12 points, five assist and four rebound averages. Sharing the court with Doncic (and to a lesser degree) Harrison Barnes isn’t going to spell a great deal of usage for the young guard. But you have to like the minutes considering he’s coming in the low $4K range on both sites.
Strongly consider Ricky Rubio if you think the Suns can hang with the Jazz.
Monte Morris FD - $6400 DK - $6100
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 36.19 DK - 36.36
Malik Beasley FD - $5100 DK - $5700
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 29.41 DK - 30.56
Gary Harris has already been ruled out for Wednesday’s game and now we just need to wait on the status of Jamal Murray. If the latter once again can’t go, Morris and Beasley would step in as mid-tier value plays once again. The Nuggets were blown out by Detroit on Monday and Morris *still* played 34 minutes. He’s found a lot of run and a decent amount of usage while manning the point guard position in Murray’s absence. Even though the offense mostly runs through Jokic out of the high post, Morris did have assist games of 10, 8 and 7 the three games before.
Beasley also drew the start in the Nuggets’ depleted backcourt, though he’s seen the minutes come and go a little more when playing for Harris. Beasley needs the shot to go down to really hit value considering 63% of his fantasy scoring comes from putting the ball in the basket. He’s getting a little expensive on DraftKings, but is still a FanDuel pick if in the starting lineup.
After these two, or worse if Jamal Murray actually plays, then the shooting guard options start looking rather wonky on FanDuel. I could be talked into Marco Belinelli on the cheap with DeRozan out of the mix.
The other option, which I don't love (at least this easly in the day) is to just spend all the way up on either Luka Doncic or Jrue Holiday. Both are coming near-peak pricing on bad teams though and that has me a little concerned.
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11900 DK - $11400
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 61.88 DK - 63.15
From a big-money standpoint, it’s pretty close to me between Giannis and Nikola Jokic. The latter is coming about 10% cheaper on both sites, which does help ease some of the tension with a little less risk of blowout. The Bucks have slaughtered some teams this season and own the NBA’s best point differential. They enter this game against the Wizards as -11.5 home favorites. And the one concern with Giannis isn’t the per minute production, but rather if the minutes are going to be there game-to-game because of the blowout. On FanDuel, with some possible savings in others spots, it’s conceivable to roster both of these superstars. On DraftKings, it’s a different story. I’m leaning Jokic with a metaphoric gun to my head, but of course Giannis is about as good as they come these days.
Rudy Gay FD - $6000 DK - $5900
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 33.29 DK - 33.63
Davis Bertans FD - $4300 DK - $4100
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 25.59 DK - 26.53
I don’t relish the idea of running these guys in cash games into the Warriors’ buzzsaw, but the opportunity both get with DeRozan out of the mix is tough to ignore. With DDR off the court this season, Gay gets roughly a 7% usage bump and stands to see more minutes as well. He can at least act as something of a speed bump against a guy like Durant as well, which does buoy some of his minutes/ fantasy hopes.
Meanwhile, Bertans is usage neutral with or without DeRozan, but should see plenty of minutes in the starting role. We still don’t know who is exactly starting for DeRozan (Bertans started in place of Derrick White last game) so even more minutes could open up for the Spurs. They’ll need to shoot the lights out to hang but I think Bertans is worth the risk at these price points.
Kenrich Williams FD - $5400 DK - $5000
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 28.17 DK - 29.24
Williams drew the start for the train wreck Pelicans’ team on Monday and, from a fantasy perspective, was good at these prices finishing with eight points, eight rebounds, five assists and a smattering of blocks and steals. He didn’t shoot well against the Pacers (3-13) but it was at least encouraging to see him maintain solid usage when starting. He’s had double-digit shot attempts in two of his last four games since really starting to play major minutes. I suspect they continue here again against a very weak Bulls’ team. Along with Williams, Cheick Diallo has been a points-per-minute beast when given the opportunity. He’s played 22 and 23 minutes respectively over the last two games and averaged an impressive 13 point, 12 rebound line.
Maximilian Kleber FD - $5200 DK - $4300
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 26.14 DK - 24.83
With DeAndre Jordan shipped out to the Knicks, Kleber has started at the five the last two games for the Mavericks. He struggled with production and foul trouble against the Piston, but bounced back against the Cavaliers with a 10 point, nine rebound game. You have to really like him as a DraftKings pick at that $4300 price tag. And considering how shallow power forward is almost nightly, I can stomach the mid $5K numbers there. Along with Kleber, I think you can also consider Ryan Broekhoff and Dwight Powell who’ve seen solid minutes off the bench and are both coming cheap.
Nikola Jokic FD - $10800 DK - $10600
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 56.51 DK - 58.63
Basically, one of the best matchups you can get in DFS is a center facing off against the Nets. On the season, Brooklyn is allowing 12% more scoring and rebounding than league average to the position which makes a lot of sense considering just how undersized they are down low. And Jokic has carried over his fantastic month of January into February. Over his last 19 games, Joker is 23 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists per game. Jokic makes for the pretty clear pay-up, elite salary tier play on this Wednesday slate.
Jahlil Okafor FD - $7800 DK - $7300
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 41.41 DK - 41.84
If you are looking to fade Jokic at this posiiton and want a center in a good matchup, this is it. While the Nets are the worst at defending the five, Chicago isn’t far behind allowing 9% more scoring and 10% more rebounding than league average to the position. Okafor keeps getting more expensive, but the guy also just keeps dropping monster stat lines with both Anthony Davis and Julius Randle out of the Pelicans’ mix. This is also a matchup in which we can basically project Okafor at max minutes because the game should stay close(ish) and the Bulls don’t have a way to really play him off the court.