Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday 2/11/19
We are through the weekend, through the trade deadline, through a Zion Williamson block for the ages. It's a new week. And with it comes a break down of the cash game plays for FanDuel and DraftKings. That's how we are going to get your week started right.
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Since the Kristaps Porzingis trade, Dennis Smith has had free rein in the New York offense to chuck to his heart’s content. He’s taken 17, 15 and 25 shots respectively in the last three games with varying levels of efficiency. From a DFS perspective, I’m mostly encouraged by his volume and willingness to just chuck over and over. In the last three games, he’s averaging 23 points, seven assists and four rebounds. He gets a great matchup against the Cavs in a tank-off kind of game. Collin Sexton is pretty damn bad on defense, even for a rookie and Smith should see plenty of scoring opportunities here.
Collin Sexton FD - $5400 DK - $4900
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 28.45 DK - 30.09
The Cavs are an utter mess right now. A team totally and completely in the tank with a lot of guys injured and other dudes shipped out at the trade deadline. That’s left a void in usage/ minutes/ talent/ everything but also opened up opportunity for Sexton to just do whatever for many minutes a game. Over the last five games, he’s averaging 34 minutes, 19 points, our rebounds and three assists. That basically gets the job done at these prices. The shot volume is the key and he needs to score to hit volume considering the periphery stats aren’t always there. But I’m not all that worried about it considering the current state of the Cavs who will be without Kevin Love once again on Monday.
Jordan Clarkson FD - $5800 DK - $5200
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 30.44 DK - 31.67
He’ll still come off the bench for this crappy team, but as one of the few guys on the squad who can *reliably* put the ball in the hoop, dude still has value going forward. Clarkson is averaging 16 shots per game over his last six wand putting up 17 points, four rebounds and four assists in that stretch. The usage rate is the real thing to hone in on and he’s getting up almost 16 shots per game in that stretch. He’s been inefficient, shooting only around 40% but with some regression, we could be looking at bigger scoring games in the short term. Again, the Cavs are a train wreck and guys like Clarkson (who chuck and don’t care about it) thrive fantasy-wise from the talent void.
Dion Waiters FD - $4400 DK - $4100
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 22.99 DK - 24.2
It’s on a back-to-back so there’s some uncertainty around these minutes, but since Tyler Johnson was traded away at the deadline, Waiters has entered the starting lineup and played a ton. He ran 32 against the Kings and 41 versus the Warriors on Sunday. Dude jacked 13 threes against the Warriors and I do think in this current iteration of the Heat, he has a lot of usage upside. The only thing that worries me with Waiters here is the Heat managing his minutes on the back-to-back. I think that’s a real concern with his injury history and for sure something monitor.
Jabari Parker FD - $3900 DK - $5600
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 23.25 DK - 23.78
On FanDuel, we could see Parker as a major chalk play on Monday if Jeff Green were to sit. The former is priced near the minimums and was the clear beneficiary of the latter going down on Saturday. After Green was hurt, Parker played 35 minutes and finished with 20 points, six assists and five rebounds. Honestly, even if Green were available I’d consider Parker in this spot on FanDuel. On DraftKings, it’s closer where I’d need the definitive news. But we’ve seen Parker fill it up, from a fantasy perspective in limited minutes. The guy has so much fantasy (if not real-life basketball) appeal. We’ll know more during the day and it helps that this is the first game of the night.
Kevin Knox FD - $4600 DK - $5000
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 27.53 DK - 29.16
Look, I'm loathed to trust the Knicks on a night-to-night basis considering the fast and loose nature of their rotations. But there are a couple of non-land mines in their rotation. Knox is one of them and he’s averaged 37 minutes per game over the last five. He’s going for 15 points and four rebounds in that stretch, which isn’t great. But he’s also running bad from the field, shooting 34% on 16 field goal attempts per game. That won’t last. There’s a ton of volume scoring upside on these prices when the shot is dropping. I love buying low on Knox, especially on FanDuel.
If you think Chicago keeps it even a semblance of close, or if the Bucks sit someone because the Bulls are garbage, then Giannis Antetokounmpo is a good play.
Blake Griffin FD - $9000 DK - $9000
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 48.26 DK - 50.54
Griffin’s minutes have been all over the place of late, stretching up to 42 against the Clippers, but bottoming out at 23 against the Nuggets. It’s kept the price in check entering a plus matchup against the Wizards who have almost no front court defense to speak of. They are rolling out the Portis/ Jeff Green/ Jabari poo-poo platter and Griffin should lay waste against this group. The pace-up nature of the new-look Wiz also helps the fantasy floor. When the minutes are in the mid-30’s, Griffin is a great deal at these prices. The Pistons are still very much trying to make the playoffs which helps some of the stability when the game script works out.
Kenneth Faried FD - $7400 DK - $6800
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 37.08 DK - 38.09
Sure, he’s getting expensive but it’s warranted considering the fantasy output we’re getting from the big man. In close-ish games, Faried is good for 30-33 minutes and over the last eight games (when he joined the starters) he’s averaging 17 points and 11 rebounds per game. It’s a little easier to stomach price-wee on DraftKings, but FanDuel has the two-power-forward issue. So he comes into play on both sites. The Mavericks have little-to-no frontcourt size at this point, after trading away DeAndre Jordan so it’s tougher to play Faried off the court in this matchup.
If Kevin Love is out again, Larry Nance Jr. and Marquese Chriss are both definitely in play. It doesn’t matter than the Cavs are complete and utter garbage. The key here is that these dudes are seeing serious minutes as the Cleveland bigs.
Ivica Zubac FD - $3900 DK - $4000
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 27.03 DK - 26.66
At the trade deadline, Zubac barely moved at all, going from the Lakers to the Clippers. But the move landed Zubac firmly into the starting lineup for *Los Angeles. And even though he *only played 23 minutes in that role on Saturday, he still managed 12 points, nine rebounds and three blocks. The game ended up getting a bit out of hand on the Celtics’ side so there could be more run for the young center in a closer matchup. Which could be the case against the T-Wolves on Monday. Zubac’s price didn’t move at all on either site and he seems like an easy punt play option here. I suspect he’s one of the chalkier plays on the slate.
Zubac is such the clear cash game play at his price that I’m hesitant to pay too much homage to the rest of the player pool. But there are other guys to consider. If you think the Bulls can keep it even a little bit close, then Brook Lopez is in the discussion playing against his brother.
If Paul Millsap was out again, Mason Plumlee would be in the mix again. The price has come up on the former, but I like his points/$ potential and he would create some size mismatches against the Heat.
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- Blake Griffin: (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)