Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday 2/13/19
With the All-Star Break looming, we get one more big slate of basketball action before a relatively quiet Thursday night.
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Jeff Teague FD - $6100 DK - $5800
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 32.84 DK - 33.12
Teague recently returned from a foot injury that kept him out for eight games, as these DFS sites are slow to adjust to his return. In his first game back, Teague provided 12 points, four rebounds and five assists across 17 minutes. In the most recent game, Teague collected 19 points, four rebounds and 10 assists in 35 minutes of action. Those 42.5 DraftKings points in the most recent outing are hard to overlook, especially considering he’s in the $6,000-range. It’s all a matter of minutes for Teague, as he’s averaging 29 fantasy points across 30 minutes a game. The fact that he played 35 minutes on Monday shows that all minute restrictions are off, as he could play even more with Tyus Jones, Derrick Rose and Jerryd Bayless all nicked up too.
Collin Sexton FD - $5500 DK - $4900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 27.42 DK - 29.06
Something has clicked with Sexton recently, as he’s been a different player the last couple weeks. In fact, Sexton has at least 19 fantasy points in 19 of his last 21 games while averaging 31.7 DK points across his last four fixtures. It’s his role that’s really risen recently, as Sexton is averaging 37.3 minutes and 19.3 shots a game in that four-game span while posting a 25.1 percent usage rate. The icing on the cake is the matchup though, with Brooklyn allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.
Strongly consider Stephen Curry on the back-to-back against the Trailblazers.
Klay Thompson FD - $7200 DK - $6500
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 37.68 DK - 38.25
Thompson is the only player who hasn’t taken a hit to his fantasy value since DeMarcus Cousins entered the fray, as he remains a value in the $7,000-range. Not only is Thompson averaging 36.4 DraftKings points across his last 19 games, he’s also scored at least 38 fantasy points in four-straight outings. Portland has been terrible against shooting guards this season too, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to them. That’s evident by the fact that Thompson is averaging 42.1 fantasy points in three games against the Blazers this season.
Dion Waiters FD - $5200 DK - $4300
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.03 DK - 27.61
With Tyler Johnson now out of the picture, Waiters has been asked to take on a much bigger load. Not only has Waiters started in the last three games, he’s providing 24.1 fantasy points per game in that span. That may sound like nothing special but that’s approaching 6X value on DraftKings at this silly $4,300 price tag. His increase in production is in correlation with his usage rising, with Waiters averaging 34.3 minutes and 14.3 shots a game in those three starts.
Luke Doncic is also, once again, in a good spot.
Kawhi Leonard FD - $9500 DK - $9400
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 49.49 DK - 49.54
Leonard should be a five-figure player on both sites, as his price remains limited because of all the games he’s sat out. When Leonard plays, he’s a stud. That’s evident by the fact that Leonard is averaging 46 fantasy points per game for the season while never scoring below 26 DK points in any game. His form against the Wizards is hard to overlook too, as he’s averaging 34 points, 10.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.5 steals and 1.0 blocks in two games against Washington this season. That’s no surprise when you consider the fact that Washington allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards while ranking 29th in total defense. They haven't gotten any better on that front, essentially replacing Otto Porter's minutes with Bobby Portis and Jabari Parker.
Justise Winslow FD - $5900 DK - $5600
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 31.15 DK - 31.95
Winslow has been a different player since taking over starting point guard duties in the absence of Goran Dragic (knee). In fact, Winslow is averaging 29.7 fantasy points across his last 25 games. His role is hard to overlook too, as he’s averaging 31.3 minutes and 13 shot attempts per game in that span while posting a 23,3 percent usage rate. Dallas is a matchup worth exploiting too, as they allow the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.
Larry Nance Jr. FD - $7600 DK - $6700
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 37 DK - 37.3
All fantasy owners were extremely annoyed with Nance’s diminished role at the beginning of the season but it appears the shackles are off. Not only is he starting now, Nance has played at least 33 minutes in all three starts. That has led to him recording six-straight double-doubles, as he’s averaging 38 fantasy points per game in that span. This is a guy who has always produced when given the minutes, as he’s averaging 28.4 DK points per game, despite playing just 26 minutes per outing this season. Brooklyn’s not a defense to fade either, as they rank 21st in total defense.
Dario Saric FD - $5100 DK - $4600
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 25.62 DK - 27.04
Saric was finally rewarded with the starting power forward job in the team’s most recent game, as Ryan Saunders has said he’ll continue to start the Croatian. In that start, Saric provided 19 points, eight rebounds, two assists and two steals in 33 minutes. That’s the workload fantasy owners have been dreaming for, as he’s finally usurped Tom Thibideau’s best friend, Taj Gibson. Saric has now scored at least 30 fantasy points in three of his last four games, as he’ll remain a value on both sites until he gets north of $6,000.
Consider P.J. Tucker
Deandre Ayton FD - $7400 DK - $6700
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 39.41 DK - 40.42
Ayton has been floating in the $7,000-range on both sites all season long, as he should absolutely abuse this matchup. Not only does Los Angeles rank 24th in total defense, they also allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers. That should allow Ayton to go off, especially considering he’s averaging 34.2 fantasy points in five games since his return from injury while scoring at least 29 fantasy points in all those fixtures.
Mason Plumlee FD - $6000 DK - $5700
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.86 DK - 29.77
Plumlee has been a stud since gaining the starting center role in Denver, as he’s regained his Portland form. Over his last five starts, Plumlee is averaging 35 DK points per game. It is a bit worrisome that Paul Millsap returned from injury in Denver’s most recent game but Plumlee’s proven that he can produce in small doses. In fact, Plumlee is averaging 23.2 fantasy points in 20.6 minutes per game this year, as he should provide solid value as long as he plays at least 20 minutes. That should become a little easier here with the matchup against Sacramento, considering he faces a Kings defense who sit 26th in total defense.