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Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – WGC Mexico Championship
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Chris is also providing his DFS PGA Weekly cheatsheet where he provides stats, course history, current form, fantasy points, and much more. Grab your copy today and edge out the competition.
WGC Mexico Championship
This week the PGA Tour travels South of the border for the 2019 WGC Mexico Championship from the Club De Golf Chapultepec in Mexico City. This is no-cut event with a limited field of just 71 golfers(Adrian Otaegui was added to make the field 72) but is a loaded field as always and has nine of the Top 10 and 46 of the Top 50 golfers in the World. This will be the third year for the Mexico Championship since taking over the WGC spot so we have limited course history leading to a lower weight in my overall model this week. It will be much important to focus on players who have been playing well lately and fit the stats model.
The course is another Par 71 that stretches out 7,300 yards so I will be once again looking for not just bombers but those who are overall good off the tee. Why? The fairways are tree-lined and smaller than average and reading the quote(via Future of Fantasy Golfanac) from Phil Mickelson below it will be important to hit the right spots(even in the rough) to have access to the larger than average greens.
As always, Strokes Gained: Approach will be high in the model when looking at Ball Striking and this week I will be focusing on Proximity with the larger than average greens. I will also be looking at a mix of Par 4 and Par 5 Scoring as both have proved to be important through the first two years of this event(Par 5 scoring in 2017 and par 4 scoring in 2018). To check out the full field stats for these events, check out Fantasy National Golf Club and go search bar and search Mexico Championship. As you can see below, the winning score has been in the mid-teens and looking at the leaderboards from the two-year sample we have, it is going to take about 20-22 birdies to get the job done this week so look closely at Birdie or Better %.
Let's take a look at the course stats, previous winners, top stats, and then dig in to the picks.
Club De Golf Chapultepec - Mexico City, Mexico
Par 71 - 7,345 Yards
Greens - Poa Annua
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
- 2018 - Phil Mickelson(-16)
- 2017 - Dustin Johnson(-14)
**Click pics below to link to Windfinder to see updated forecast as lineup lock approaches**
Top Stats in the Model
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee with Emphasis on Distance
- Strokes Gained: Approach with Emphasis on Proximity
- Par 4 & 5 Scoring
- Birdie or Better %
- Putting on Poa
Top Tier Targets
JT is #1 in my overall model this week as he is the only golfer in this field to rank Top 5 in all four categories(stats, course history, form, fantasy scoring). He has not won here yet but has come close both times and is the only player with back to back Top 5 finishes(2nd in 2018, T5 in 2017) here in Mexico. He was in line to win last week until a final round 75 allowed J.B. Holmes to overtake the lead and grab the trophy but the runner-up was his third podium finish in his last four events and fourth Top 5 in six events this season. Despite an absolutely loaded field, JT also leads everyone in Strokes Gained: Approach, Par 5 Scoring, and Birdie or Better % on my sheet and is also 8th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Proximity, and 8th in Bogey Avoidance. With everyone getting a full four rounds, a stars and scrubs strategy makes a ton of sense making JT a great play in all formats.
Staying right near the top, my second core play in this range is going to be Rory McIlroy who, like Thomas, has been red hot lately and due for a win. After posting a T21 and T20 on the European Tour at the end of 2018, Rory jumped over to the US in January and has posted three straight Top 5 finishes at the Tournament of Champions, Farmers Insurance Open, and last weeks Genesis Open. He has been using his distance to gain monster strokes off the tee and hasn't been too shabby on the approach either gained strokes in that area in six straight events on Tour. The only concern really is his putting on Poa but he did well last week gaining 2.9 strokes at the Genesis. He has monster upside and I will be getting a ton of exposure to both he and JT at the top this week.
Mid Tier Targets
After six straight finishes of T16 or better with four Top 10's to close out 2018, Fleetwood has yet to fully find his game in 2019 which has helped keep his price in the mid-tier in this loaded field. If there was a place find the rhythm, it is here in Mexico where he has a runner-up finish in 2017 and a T14 last year. Despite the T28 last week at the Genesis, he finished Top 10 in Stroke Gained: Tee to Green(+7.3) but couldn't get the putts to fall(-2.4 SG:P) and he has also gained strokes on the approach in nine of his last 10 PGA Tour events(where it's tracked). At these prices, he is in play in all formats and is also one of my core outright bets this week.
Since missing the cut at the Omega Desert Classic on the Euro Tour, Bello has posted back to back Top 25 finishes on the PGA Tour and before that hadn't missed a cut worldwide since July last year. He is incredibly consistent tee to green(Top 25 in both SG: OTT and APP on sheet) and is also a very good putter(9th in SG: P). He now returns to the Mexico Championship where he finished T3 last year and is ranked second in SG: Putting and 11th in fantasy scoring over the two years this WGC event has been played at Club De Golf Chapultepec. He is in play in all formats for DFS and very good Top 10/Top 20 bet this week.
World Golf Ranking (#53)
Vegas Odds (100/1)
Looking at the sub $7K range on DraftKings this week, Grillo stands out and is the highest ranked golfer(#17) in my model in this range. He has been consistent this season making all eight cuts with four Top 25 finishes and has also flashed some upside with a runner-up at the CIMB Classic. He also sits Top 10 in my stats model this week ranking 16th in SG: Off the Tee, 4th in SG: Approach, 8th in three-putt avoidance, 12th in Proximity, and 18th in Birdie or Better %. He finished T52 here in 2017 and I would fully expect a better result in his second appearance at the WGC Mexico Championship and will be using him in all formats this week.
World Golf Ranking (#68)
Vegas Odds (175/1)
I will most definitely be running a ton of stars and scrubs lineups this week in GPP and one of the "scrubs" I will be using is Alexander Bjork. He plays primarily on the European Tour and has been very consistent lately not only making five straight cuts but finishing with Top 20 finishes in three of those(Omega Dubai Desert Classic, DP World Tour Championship, Turkish Airlines Open). He doesn't really stand out in any one area when looking at the stats but at these prices, as long as he doesn't tank and finish bottom 5, he should hit value easily in GPP formats.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for six years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.