Hockey Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

02/28/2019
Chris Durell

Daily Fantasy Hockey Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 2/28/19

Welcome back hockey fans. Thursday brings us seven games to sort through with four of them with a 6.5 Vegas Total so get ready for another high-scoring night. Let's jump in and take a look at some of the teams, players, and situations to target tonight.

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GOALIE

Marc-Andre FleuryMarc-Andre Fleury FD - $7900 DK - $8300
Opponent - FLA
Proj Pts FD - 21.05 DK - 5.26

The goalie position is somewhat ugly for cash games tonight with the lack of an elite option so we will start with Marc-Andre Fleury who stands out the most. He has gone through some struggles recently allowing four or more goals in four of his last six starts but bounced back in his last start holding the Stars to just one goal on Tuesday night. While the upside is somewhat limited with Fleury who only sees an average 27.7 shots per 60, he and Golden Knights are -205 home favorites facing a Panthers team who has scored just 14 goals in their last seven games. More good news as Fleury has also been much better on home ice with a .914 save % and five shutouts. If paying up in cash games, Fleury is the clear choice tonight.

Darcy KuemperDarcy Kuemper FD - $7800 DK - $7700
Opponent - VAN
Proj Pts FD - 15.95 DK - 3.99

After Fleury is where things get really interesting as Bobrovsky is a big favorite against Philly and while I will have some shares, it is hard to ignore the value in the sub $8K range tonight. If I told pre-season or even a month ago the Coyotes would be just two points out of a playoff spot at the end of February you would have likely called me crazy. Well here we are and a huge part of their success has been goaltending lead by Kuemper who has won five straight and seven of his last eight starts while posting an impressive .937 save % while facing 31.8 shots per game. He and the Coyotes are in a great spot tonight as -140 home favorites against a Canucks team that is playing on a back to back on the road and a third game in four nights overall. All things considered, he is a great play in all formats especially on DraftKings where he is $600 cheaper than Fleury.

 

Vegas Golden Knights 

Moneyline - VEG(-210)
Total - 6.5
Team Total - 3.9

The Golden Knights were all about quality over quantity at the trade deadline as they acquired most people's top trade target, Mark Stone from the Ottawa Senators. All in an effort to boost an offense that ranks 18th on the season scoring 2.9 goals per game and it was a good start at home vs. Dallas on Tuesday as they won 4-1. Tonight they sit as the #1 projected scoring offense in our system as they face a Panthers team who ranks 27th in road defense and is playing a third game in four nights on the road vs. a Western Conference opponent.

Mark StoneMark Stone FD - $7400 DK - $6500
Opponent - FLA
Proj Pts FD - 18.84 DK - 5.36
Paul StastnyPaul Stastny FD -
$5300 DK - $4900
Opponent - FLA
Proj Pts FD - 11.33 DK - 3.16
Max PaciorettyMax Pacioretty FD -
$6300 DK - $5400
Opponent - FLA
Proj Pts FD - 12.41 DK - 3.56
Shea TheodoreShea Theodore FD -
$4300 DK - $4600
Opponent - FLA
Proj Pts FD - 10.84 DK - 3.1

I will start with Mark Stone who has provided terrific offensive upside all season leading the Sens with 62 points in 59 games while averaging over 20 minutes of ice-time. The floor has been decent as he has averaged 2.5 shots per game but has seen a huge uptick lately with four or more in five of his last six games with the Sens and he tallied six in his first game with the Knights on Tuesday. I will turn to Stone in all formats tonight. If you are going the value route in cash games tonight, I don't mind pairing Stone with either Pacioretty or Stastny and for GPP's I will be running a full line stack.

On defense, I am warming up to the value that Shea Theodore is providing in the mid $4K range on both sites. He hasn't provided a ton of upside lately with just three points in his last 10 games but has given us a steady floor with a combination of four or more blocks and shots in seven straight games. I will have more exposure to him in cash games than GPP tonight.

Also consider a powerplay stack where Stone and Theodore join Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, and William Karlsson on the top unit. 

Boston Bruins

Moneyline - BOS(-125)
Total - 6.5
Team Total - 3.4

The Bruins are a team that has shown big-time home/road splits this season as they rank 28th on road scoring 2.42 goals per game but jump all the way up to 6th at home scoring 3.5 goals per game. Good news, they are at home tonight and while the matchup looks terrible on paper as the Bolts rank 2nd overall on defense, they are playing on a back to back on the road and a third game in four nights. This is a great spot to get some lower owned stacks for GPP formats on a larger seven-game slate.

David KrejciDavid Krejci FD - $5800 DK - $5200
Opponent - TB
Proj Pts FD - 12.34 DK - 3.5
Jake DeBruskJake DeBrusk FD -
$5900 DK - $5200
Opponent - TB
Proj Pts FD - 12.18 DK - 3.52
Marcus JohanssonMarcus Johansson FD -
$4600 DK - $4800
Opponent - TB
Proj Pts FD - 11.65 DK - 3.39
John MooreJohn Moore FD -
$3800 DK - $3300
Opponent - TB
Proj Pts FD - 8.05 DK - 2.42

Want to go even more contrarian in GPP? Ride with the Bruins second line who not only give you upside but also come at a very low cost(30.4% of the cap on DK, 29.6% of the cap on FD). David Krejci doesn't give us much of a floor averaging just 5.6 shots per 60 but has been red-hot lately with 14 points(4 on PP) in his last 10 games including four multi-point efforts. Jake DeBrusk has been on the same level lately with 11 points in his last 10 games with 26 shots on goal and both he and Krejci have been skating with Bergeron and Marchand on the top powerplay unit. Marcus Johansson was the Bruins big addition at the trade deadline and he picked up an assist and two shots in his first game with his new team and was rolling with the Devils before leaving with 12 points in his final 13 games with the team.

I always love punting at least one of my defense positions in cash games and the system is once again high on John Moore from a PTS/$ perspective. He doesn't provide much, if any, upside with just 10 points on the season but over his last 15 games, has 26 shots and 25 blocks(average of 3.4 combined per game) which gives us a high floor for the price allowing us to load up in other spots.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Moneyline - CBJ(-190)
Total - 6.5
Team Total - 3.7

It will be hard to ignore the Blue Jackets tonight who are at home as -190 favorites and sit with the 2nd highest team total on the slate. They are averaging 3.3 goals per game in the month of February which is right on par with their season numbers as they rank 10th in offense scoring 3.2 goals per game. There is some risk here as Brian Elliott will be in between the pipes for the Flyers and has won two straight since returning from injury but overall the Flyers have really struggled defensively on the road allowing 3.5 goals per game(25th).

Cam AtkinsonCam Atkinson FD - $7300 DK - $7500
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 16.55 DK - 4.78
Artemi PanarinArtemi Panarin FD - $7700
DK - $7000
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 14.32 DK - 4.12
Matt DucheneMatt Duchene FD - $6900
DK - $7300
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 16.44 DK - 4.66

The first name that stands out for me is a regular here in my articles, Cam Atkinson. He has seen his price go up as he is the 3rd highest priced winger on DraftKings with his best value coming on FanDuel where he is 9th in pricing at the position. He is still a great play in all formats on both sites, however,  providing us with an elite floor with a 12.1 shots/60, 19.1 iCorsi/60 and has also flashed big-time upside this season with 59 points(three shy of his career-high) and is averaging a whopping 11.1 scoring chances per 60 minutes. For GPP formats, I also love stacking Atkinson with his linemates Artemi Panarin who has 69 points in 59 games on the season and newly acquired Matt Duchene who has already tallied a multi-point effort in his first three games with his new team.

Also Consider

The Oilers/Sens game has the third-highest total on this slate and despite the Oilers playing on a back to back and third game in four nights, they get a terrific matchup against a depleted Senators team that ranks dead last in defense. I will definitely be getting exposure to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl tonight.

The game with the most intrigue from a watchability standpoint is the Leafs visiting the Islanders. The story revolves around John Tavares returning to the Island for the first time since departing in free agency in the offseason. There will be a lot of energy in the building but from a DFS perspective, it is mostly a fade for me as both teams rank Top 10 in defense. If anything, with the projected ownership on Tavares, I would recommend pivoting to Auston Matthews who could be outside the Top 5 highest owned centers tonight.

For value, I like Josh Anderson(CBJ) who has been very consistent lately with eight points and 30 shots over his last 10 games, Andreas Johnsson(TOR) skating alongside Matthews and is also up on the top powerplay unit, Alex Tuch(VGK) as a contrarian GPP pivot off their top two lines and he also skates with Pacioretty and Stastny on the powerplay. On defense, I like both Darnell Nurse and Oscar Klefbom on the Oilers as both are skating over 23 minutes per game and have provided a nice combination of shots and blocks giving us a high floor.


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