Hockey Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Hockey Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 3/7/19
Welcome back hockey fans. Thursday brings us a huge 11-game slate with eight of those games opening with a 6.0+ Vegas Total so expect another high-scoring night which has become the norm lately. Let's dig in and take a look at some of the top goalies, teams, and situations to target.
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There are some nice options at goalie tonight on this big slate but Andrei Vasilevskiy stands out above the rest. He was terrific before the All-Star Break(20-4-2, .925 save %) and has been even better since winning 11 of his last 14 starts with an elite .944 save % while facing 32 shots per game. Tonight, he and the Bolts are big -240 home favorites against a Wild team that is coming home at home losses to the Preds and rank 25th in offense scoring just 2.8 goals per game. If you are playing on FanDuel, Greiss at a $1,600 discount makes the cash game decision a little harder but n DraftKings as the 5th most expensive goalie, Vasilevskiy is a great play in all formats.
Like I mentioned above, Greiss's price makes him a very close 1B option to Vasilevskiy in cash games on FanDuel at a big discount. He replaced Robin Lehner on Tuesday due to injury and will get the start on the back end of a home at home vs. the Senators. The Isles pulled out the 5-4 win the other night and it was only the second time the Sens have scored more than two goals since Matt Duchene was traded(eight games). In fact, since they first sat him out in preparation for said trade, the team has averaged just 1.6 goals per game. For Greiss, he has split time with Lehner this season and having a career year with a .928 save %. Even on the road, the Isles are -210 favorites vs. a depleted Sens team and safe in all formats.
If you are looking to go cheap at goalie allowing you to load up at defense or with multiple stacks in GPP, consider Mikko Koskinen. He is coming off a tremendous road trip where he not only picked up wins in all three starts but also stopped 100 of 105 shots(.952 save %). The Oilers still have life in the playoff race and can take one step closer in a terrific matchup tonight as -150 favorites against a Canucks team that has dropped three straight and six of their last seven games while scoring just 12 goals. There are better options(see above) in cash games but Koskinen provides a ton of upside at a sub $8 price tag on both sites and is an excellent GPP value play.
Team Projections (4.1)
It has been a long season for the Blackhawks sitting earn the bottom of the league standings but fans and fantasy players have at least been treated to a ton of offense as they rank 8th overall. The upside should continue tonight as they get a plus home matchup against a Sabres team that has fallen apart defensively lately allowing four or more goals in 10 of their last 16 games and now rank outside the top 20 in defense. There is a lot to like about the Hawks tonight so let's take a look at a couple of players that stand out.
Patrick Kane FD - $9100 DK - $8000
Opponent - BUF
Proj Pts FD - 21.2 DK - 6.12
Jonathan Toews FD - $7600 DK - $7200
Opponent - BUF
Proj Pts FD - 14.99 DK - 4.33
Alex Debrincat FD - $7300 DK - $6500
Opponent - BUF
Proj Pts FD - 16.51 DK - 4.77
Brent Seabrook FD - $4600 DK - $5100
Opponent - BUF
Proj Pts FD - 11.11 DK - 3.37
Whenever targeting the Hawks, Patrick Kane is always the first name on the list. The 20-game point streak is a thing of the past but he has been a beast all season with 40 goals(3rd overall) and 94 total points(2nd) with 28 coming on the powerplay. On top of that, he provides an elite floor and over his last 10 games has tallied 53 shots and sits with an 11.4 shots/60 and 19.9 iCorsi/60 on the season.
At center, Jonathan Toews will be a core play for me tonight in the low to mid $7K range. He skates with Kane on the top line and has also been terrific lately with 11 points in his last 10 games with 31 shots on goal.
There are a lot of different ways to build a cash lineup with the Hawks but I love pairing Alex DeBrincat with Kane as my core. DeBrincat skates on the second line but joins Toews and Kane on the top powerplay unit and has been a beast lately with 12 points(five on the powerplay) in his last 10 games and has already crushed his career-high in points with 65 through 66 games(52 in 82 games in 2017-18).
On defense, I love Brent Seabrook who is near the top of our PTS/$ rankings tonight. He picked up an assist in his last game and while he didn't record a point in the six games before that he has provided a very high floor with 23 shots and 14 blocks in that time.
Also Consider for GPP Dylan Strome who centers the second line alongside DeBrincat and Perlini or a third line contrarian stack with Brandon Saad, Artem Anisimov, and Dominik Kahun who also make up the second powerplay unit
New York Islanders
The Islanders will likely be chalky once again in the back end of a home at home with the Senators but there is just too much value to pass up. It has almost everything to do with the matchup as the Sens rank 30th on defense for the season allowing 3.7 goals per game and have been even worse since the trade deadline giving up 23 goals in five games. The Islanders offense is only ranked 20th overall so I am never excited about stacking them but considering the matchup I will have plenty of exposure on Thursday night.
Brock Nelson FD - $5900 DK - $5900
Opponent - OTT
Proj Pts FD - 13.38 DK - 3.78
Anders Lee FD - $6000 DK - $5600
Opponent - OTT
Proj Pts FD - 10.42 DK - 3.11
Josh Bailey FD - $4900 DK - $4800
Opponent - OTT
Proj Pts FD - 10.48 DK - 3.02
I will start with the one option on the Islanders I trust in cash games. Value at the center position is often hard to come by so when there is a sub $6K option in an elite matchup you can sign me up. Overall, the shot volume is not where I l would like it but the good news is that he has been better lately with 12 shots in his last three games and 28 over his last 10. The production has also been there with four goals and four assists in those games. Like I said, I will be using Nelson in cash games and pairing him with Lee and Bailey to make a top line stack with huge upside.
Also consider Mathew Barzal for GPP formats as he has been very inconsistent lately but has big multi-point upside or Ryan Pulock on defense who has provided a consistent floor(for the price) all season
Detroit Red Wings
This game could be a bit under the radar tonight given it is one of just three games with a low 5.5 total with the odds sitting at pretty much a pick em. I will be concentrating on the Red Wings in this one although it is a viable game stack as both teams have been on losing streaks lately and giving up a ton of goals. For the Rangers defense, they come in having lost five straight while allowing 15 goals and rank 28th in road defense on the season.
Dylan Larkin FD - $7300 DK - $6800
Opponent - NYR
Proj Pts FD - 16.53 DK - 4.8
Anthony Mantha FD - $5500 DK - $5700
Opponent - NYR
Proj Pts FD - 13.56 DK - 3.92
Tyler Bertuzzi FD - $4200 DK - $4200
Opponent - NYR
Proj Pts FD - 10 DK - 2.79
You are likely familiar with Dylan Larkin if you have read my articles this season as he has been a regular play for me and for good reason. He has been a bright spot for a rebuilding team and is now just one point away from tying a career high in points. The upside is not what draws me to him, however, as he also provides an elite floor for cash games and always comes at a bit of a discount at center from the Crosby's, MacKinnon's, Eichel's, and McDavid's of the world. On the season, he sits with a 10.4 shots per 60 and 17.9 iCorsi/60 on the season and is the 12th and 13th most expensive center on this slate. Lock and load in all formats.
In a terrific matchup like this, I will be pairing Larkin with Anthony Mantha in cash games as he comes in red-hot with 12 points over his last 10 games with 35 shots on goal. Best of all, he comes in the mid $5K range on both sites making much esier to create a more balanced cash game lineup. For GPP formats, I will also add Tyler Bertuzzi on the cheap to complete the Red Wings line stack.
On these big slates, value is pretty easy to come by which makes rostering the expensive Tampa Bay Lightning much easier. My favorite route is a second line stack of Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov and then adding Steven Stamkos for a powerplay GPP stack.
With so many games and teams in great spots, I think we can get some lower ownership in GPP formats with the Columbus Blue Jackets. They go into Pittsburgh tonight as small +110 dogs in a game with a monster 6.5 total and face a Pens team that ranks 26th in home defense. If going this route, I don't think we need to be sneaky and can target the top line pairing of Artemi Panarin and Cam Atkinson and add Matt Duchene who centers them on the top powerplay unit.
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- Patrick Kane: (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)